Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation

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dc.citation.issue3
dc.citation.volume9
dc.contributor.authorKoot EM
dc.contributor.authorMorgan-Richards M
dc.contributor.authorTrewick SA
dc.coverage.spatialEngland
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-10T01:22:24Z
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-25T06:49:08Z
dc.date.available2022-03-02
dc.date.available2024-01-10T01:22:24Z
dc.date.available2024-07-25T06:49:08Z
dc.date.issued2022-03-02
dc.description.abstractMountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96-100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionMarch 2022
dc.format.pagination211596-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35316945
dc.identifier.citationKoot EM, Morgan-Richards M, Trewick SA. (2022). Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation.. R Soc Open Sci. 9. 3. (pp. 211596-).
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsos.211596
dc.identifier.eissn2054-5703
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn2054-5703
dc.identifier.numberARTN 211596
dc.identifier.piirsos211596
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/70948
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.publisher.urihttps://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.211596
dc.relation.isPartOfR Soc Open Sci
dc.rights(c) 2022 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectFRAGSTATS
dc.subjectalpine
dc.subjectbiomod2
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectecological niche modelling
dc.subjectensemble modelling
dc.subjectfragmentation
dc.titleClimate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id452557
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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