The development and resilience of Indian aviation industry in pre-and post-COVID-19 era : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Aviation at Massey University, Manawatū Campus, New Zealand

Abstract

The Indian aviation industry has undergone significant transformation and growth, particularly since the entry of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in 2003. With expansive geography, a rising middle class, liberalisation policies, and consistent GDP growth, India offers fertile ground for aviation to thrive. Projected to be among the world’s top economies by 2030, aviation's role in connectivity and development will only expand. Despite this potential, persistent challenges remain—airline bankruptcies, high operating costs, and low revenues. Industry consolidation and privatisation of the national carrier have reshaped the competitive landscape. In response, the government implemented reforms like easing entry barriers, allowing foreign direct investment (FDI), and launching the National Civil Aviation Policy (NCAP). Among these, the UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik meaning "Let the common citizen of the country fly") scheme is notable for enhancing regional connectivity by reviving underserved airports and stimulating Tier 2 and Tier 3 economies. However, the COVID-19 pandemic introduced a sudden structural shock, severely disrupting aviation operations and exacerbating sectoral vulnerabilities. This PhD thesis investigates three interrelated dimensions of Indian aviation using a multi-method approach. Chapter 1 explores key drivers of airline revenues between 2007 and 2022, revealing a strong revenue–expenditure link, where higher spending correlates with increased passenger volumes and staffing. It also examines how ownership, business models, and regional connectivity influence financial outcomes. Chapter 2 analyses the resilience of India’s ten busiest airports from 2016 to 2024, with a focus on the pandemic years. Using the Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model, it compares predicted and actual volumes of passengers and cargo. Findings suggest airports with better infrastructure showed greater resilience, though even major hubs experienced declines. The chapter calls for improved infrastructure, better cargo operations, and adaptive resilience strategies aligned with global protocols, such as those from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO), to prepare for future disruptions. Chapter 3 presents stakeholder perspectives—airlines, airports, regulators, and travel agents—on the implementation and sustainability of the UDAN scheme. Key barriers identified include poor infrastructure, bureaucratic delays, weak state-level support, and fragmented coordination among stakeholders. Together, these studies offer comprehensive insights into Indian aviation’s evolving landscape. The thesis provides evidence-based recommendations to support sustainable policy, boost airport resilience, and enhance stakeholder cooperation—ultimately fostering balanced and long-term sectoral growth.