Mining complex trees for hidden fruit : a graph–based computational solution to detect latent criminal networks : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Technology at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand.
| dc.confidential | Embargo : No | en_US |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Scogings, Chris | |
| dc.contributor.author | Robinson, David | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2020-01-16T20:29:23Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2020-09-28T22:47:44Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2020-01-16T20:29:23Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2020-09-28T22:47:44Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2019 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The detection of crime is a complex and difficult endeavour. Public and private organisations – focusing on law enforcement, intelligence, and compliance – commonly apply the rational isolated actor approach premised on observability and materiality. This is manifested largely as conducting entity-level risk management sourcing ‘leads’ from reactive covert human intelligence sources and/or proactive sources by applying simple rules-based models. Focusing on discrete observable and material actors simply ignores that criminal activity exists within a complex system deriving its fundamental structural fabric from the complex interactions between actors - with those most unobservable likely to be both criminally proficient and influential. The graph-based computational solution developed to detect latent criminal networks is a response to the inadequacy of the rational isolated actor approach that ignores the connectedness and complexity of criminality. The core computational solution, written in the R language, consists of novel entity resolution, link discovery, and knowledge discovery technology. Entity resolution enables the fusion of multiple datasets with high accuracy (mean F-measure of 0.986 versus competitors 0.872), generating a graph-based expressive view of the problem. Link discovery is comprised of link prediction and link inference, enabling the high-performance detection (accuracy of ~0.8 versus relevant published models ~0.45) of unobserved relationships such as identity fraud. Knowledge discovery uses the fused graph generated and applies the “GraphExtract” algorithm to create a set of subgraphs representing latent functional criminal groups, and a mesoscopic graph representing how this set of criminal groups are interconnected. Latent knowledge is generated from a range of metrics including the “Super-broker” metric and attitude prediction. The computational solution has been evaluated on a range of datasets that mimic an applied setting, demonstrating a scalable (tested on ~18 million node graphs) and performant (~33 hours runtime on a non-distributed platform) solution that successfully detects relevant latent functional criminal groups in around 90% of cases sampled and enables the contextual understanding of the broader criminal system through the mesoscopic graph and associated metadata. The augmented data assets generated provide a multi-perspective systems view of criminal activity that enable advanced informed decision making across the microscopic mesoscopic macroscopic spectrum. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10179/15647 | |
| dc.publisher | Massey University | en_US |
| dc.rights | The Author | en_US |
| dc.subject | Criminal investigation | en |
| dc.subject | Crime prevention | en |
| dc.subject | Data processing | en |
| dc.subject | Data mining | en |
| dc.subject | Computer programs | en |
| dc.subject | R (Computer program language) | en |
| dc.subject.anzsrc | 460502 Data mining and knowledge discovery | en |
| dc.title | Mining complex trees for hidden fruit : a graph–based computational solution to detect latent criminal networks : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Technology at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand. | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |
| massey.contributor.author | Robinson, David | en_US |
| thesis.degree.discipline | Information Technology | en_US |
| thesis.degree.grantor | Massey University | en_US |
| thesis.degree.level | Doctoral | en_US |
| thesis.degree.name | Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) | en_US |
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