The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk

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dc.citation.issue1
dc.citation.volume10
dc.contributor.authorForero-Muñoz NR
dc.contributor.authorMuylaert RL
dc.contributor.authorSeifert SN
dc.contributor.authorAlbery GF
dc.contributor.authorBecker DJ
dc.contributor.authorCarlson CJ
dc.contributor.authorPoisot T
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-26T00:25:10Z
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-25T06:51:11Z
dc.date.available2024-12-20
dc.date.available2024-02-26T00:25:10Z
dc.date.available2024-07-25T06:51:11Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractPathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness. Further, our framework helps explain patterns like a unique pool of merbecoviruses in the Neotropics, a recently discovered lineage of divergent nobecoviruses in Madagascar, and - most importantly - hotspots of diversification in southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East that correspond to the site of previous zoonotic emergence events. Our framework may help identify hotspots of future risk that have also been previously overlooked, like West Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and may more broadly help researchers understand how host ecology shapes the evolution and diversity of pandemic threats.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.edition2024
dc.identifier.citationForero-Muñoz NR, Muylaert RL, Seifert SN, Albery GF, Becker DJ, Carlson CJ, Poisot T. (2024). The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk. Virus Evolution. 10. 1.
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/ve/vead079
dc.identifier.eissn2057-1577
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.numbervead079
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71013
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherOxford University Press
dc.publisher.urihttps://academic.oup.com/ve/article/10/1/vead079/7484569
dc.relation.isPartOfVirus Evolution
dc.rights(c) 2024 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectbats
dc.subjectbetacoronavirus
dc.subjectdisease ecology
dc.subjectgeographic mosaic theory of coevolution
dc.titleThe coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id486333
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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