Modeling the Impacts of Self-Sufficiency Scenarios on Norwegian National Nutrient Supply

Abstract

As a part of the Norwegian strategy to meet the commitments they have made through international climate agreements with associated climate targets, the Norwegian Environmental Agency has proposed adjustments in Norwegian food production, creating implications for domestic food supply. More specifically, the proposed measures include reductions in domestic ruminant production systems. Mathematical modeling assessed four scenarios, which demonstrated the importance of modeling nutritional impacts, by providing the nutrient supply outcomes of reducing or eliminating ruminant meat, pork, and dairy production. The results show potential vulnerabilities in the system under these scenarios, particularly to meet domestic demand for these products and specific nutrient needs. While nutrient reliance on imported ruminant meat and pork is currently low, increasing self-sufficiency in plant-based foods, protein, energy, and fat is a concurrent goal from the Norwegian government. Further, our results demonstrate that meat contributes significantly in terms of self-sufficiency for several nutrients. These findings offer insights into the broader impacts of environmentally focused policy changes on the food system. By seeking a balance between environmental sustainability and nutrient adequacy, this study highlights the need to consider the effects of environmental goals on nutritional needs when reshaping national food systems.