Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
dc.citation.issue | 8 | |
dc.citation.volume | 21 | |
dc.contributor.author | Mead SR | |
dc.contributor.author | Procter J | |
dc.contributor.author | Kereszturi G | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-03-19T01:40:59Z | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-07-25T06:50:33Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-03-19T01:40:59Z | |
dc.date.available | 2024-07-25T06:50:33Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-08-20 | |
dc.description.abstract | The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evaluated on a pixel-pair basis, using the difference between simulated and observed ("actual") map-cell values to evaluate the performance of a model. However, these comparisons conflate location and quantification errors, neglecting possible spatial autocorrelation of evaluated errors. As a result, model performance assessments typically yield moderate accuracy values. In this paper, similarly moderate accuracy values were found in a performance assessment of three depth-averaged numerical models using the 2012 debris avalanche from the Upper Te Maari crater, Tongariro Volcano, as a benchmark. To provide a fairer assessment of performance and evaluate spatial covariance of errors, we use a fuzzy set approach to indicate the proximity of similarly valued map cells. This "fuzzification"of simulated results yields improvements in targeted performance metrics relative to a length scale parameter at the expense of decreases in opposing metrics (e.g. fewer false negatives result in more false positives) and a reduction in resolution. The use of this approach to generate hazard zones incorporating the identified uncertainty and associated trade-offs is demonstrated and indicates a potential use for informed stakeholders by reducing the complexity of uncertainty estimation and supporting decision-making from simulated data. | |
dc.description.confidential | false | |
dc.format.pagination | 2447-2460 | |
dc.identifier.author-url | http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000687653000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=c5bb3b2499afac691c2e3c1a83ef6fef | |
dc.identifier.citation | Mead SR, Procter J, Kereszturi G. (2021). Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 21. 8. (pp. 2447-2460). | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021 | |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1684-9981 | |
dc.identifier.elements-type | journal-article | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1561-8633 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/70990 | |
dc.language | English | |
dc.publisher | Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union | |
dc.publisher.uri | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2447/2021/ | |
dc.relation.isPartOf | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences | |
dc.rights | (c) 2021 The Author/s | |
dc.rights | CC BY 4.0 | |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
dc.title | Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
pubs.elements-id | 448280 | |
pubs.organisational-group | Other |
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