A review of climate change impact assessment and methodologies for urban sewer networks

Abstract

Understanding how climate change affects urban sewer networks is essential for the sustainable management of these infrastructures. This research uses a systematic literature review (PRISMA) to critically review methodologies to assess the effects of climate change on these systems.

A scientometric analysis traced the evolution of research patterns, while content analysis identified three primary research clusters: Climate Modelling, Flow Modelling, and Risk and Vulnerability Assessment. These clusters, although rooted in distinct disciplines, form an interconnected framework, where outputs of climate models inform flow models, and overflow data from flow models contribute to risk assessments, which are gaining increasing attention in recent studies. To enhance risk assessments, methods like Gumbel Copula, Monte Carlo simulations, and fuzzy logic help quantify uncertainties. By integrating these uncertainties with a Bayesian Network, which can incorporate expert opinion, failure probabilities are modelled based on variable interactions, improving prediction.

The study also emphasises the importance of factors, such as urbanisation, asset deterioration, and adaptation programs in order to improve predictive accuracy. Additionally, the findings reveal the need to consider cascading effects from landslides and climate hazards in future risk assessments. This research provides a reference for methodology selection, promoting innovative and sustainable urban sewer management.