Hantavirus Expansion Trends in Natural Host Populations in Brazil.

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dc.citation.issue7
dc.citation.volume16
dc.contributor.authorMello JHF
dc.contributor.authorMuylaert RL
dc.contributor.authorGrelle CEV
dc.contributor.editorKemenesi G
dc.contributor.editorKurucz K
dc.coverage.spatialSwitzerland
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-14T20:02:29Z
dc.date.available2024-08-14T20:02:29Z
dc.date.issued2024-07-17
dc.description.abstractHantaviruses are zoonotic agents responsible for causing Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) in the Americas, with Brazil ranking first in number of confirmed HCPS cases in South America. In this study, we simulate the monthly spread of highly lethal hantavirus in natural hosts by conjugating a Kermack-McCormick SIR model with a cellular automata model (CA), therefore simultaneously evaluating both in-cell and between-cell infection dynamics in host populations, using recently compiled data on main host species abundances and confirmed deaths by hantavirus infection. For both host species, our models predict an increase in the area of infection, with 22 municipalities where no cases have been confirmed to date expected to have at least one case in the next decade, and a reduction in infection in 11 municipalities. Our findings support existing research and reveal new areas where hantavirus is likely to spread within recognized epicenters. Highlighting spatial-temporal trends and potential expansion, we emphasize the increased risk due to pervasive habitat fragmentation and agricultural expansion. Consistent prevention efforts and One Health actions are crucial, especially in newly identified high-risk municipalities.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.edition2024
dc.format.pagination1154-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39066316
dc.identifier.citationMello JHF, Muylaert RL, Grelle CEV. (2024). Hantavirus Expansion Trends in Natural Host Populations in Brazil.. Viruses. 16. 7. (pp. 1154-).
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/v16071154
dc.identifier.eissn1999-4915
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn1999-4915
dc.identifier.number1154
dc.identifier.piiv16071154
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71291
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherMDPI (Basel, Switzerland)
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/16/7/1154
dc.relation.isPartOfViruses
dc.rights(c) 2024 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectAndes Virus
dc.subjectAraraquara Virus
dc.subjectJuquitiba Virus
dc.subjectNecromys lasiurus
dc.subjectOligoryzomys nigripes
dc.subjectSIR model
dc.subjectcellular automata
dc.subjectrodent-borne disease
dc.subjectBrazil
dc.subjectOrthohantavirus
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectHantavirus Infections
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectDisease Reservoirs
dc.subjectHantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome
dc.subjectZoonoses
dc.titleHantavirus Expansion Trends in Natural Host Populations in Brazil.
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id490968
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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