Estimating S-wave amplitude for earthquake early warning in New Zealand: Leveraging the first 3 seconds of P-Wave

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dc.contributor.authorChandrakumar C
dc.contributor.authorTan M
dc.contributor.authorHolden C
dc.contributor.authorStephens M
dc.contributor.authorPunchihewa A
dc.contributor.authorRahubadde Kankanamge R
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-18T21:56:53Z
dc.date.available2024-07-18T21:56:53Z
dc.date.issued2024-07-13
dc.description.abstractThis study addresses the critical question of predicting the amplitude of S-waves during earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), a highly earthquake-prone region, for implementing an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS). This research uses ground motion parameters from a comprehensive dataset comprising historical earthquakes in the Canterbury region of NZ. It explores the potential to estimate the damaging S-wave amplitude before it arrives, primarily focusing on the initial P-wave signals. The study establishes nine linear regression relationships between P-wave and S-wave amplitudes, employing three parameters: peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and peak ground displacement. Each relationship’s performance is evaluated through correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and 5-fold Cross-validation RMSE, aiming to identify the most predictive empirical model for the Canterbury context. Results using a weighted scoring approach indicate that the relationship involving P-wave Peak Ground Velocity (Pv) within a 3-second window strongly correlates with S-wave Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), highlighting its potential for EEWS. The selected empirical relationship is subsequently applied to establish a P-wave amplitude (Pv) threshold for the Canterbury region as a case study from which an EEWS could benefit. The study also suggests future research exploring complex machine learning models for predicting S-wave amplitude and expanding the analysis with more datasets from different regions of NZ.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.identifier.citationChandrakumar C, Tan M, Holden C, Stephens M, Punchihewa A, Rahubadde Kankanamge R. (2024). Estimating S-wave amplitude for earthquake early warning in New Zealand: Leveraging the first 3 seconds of P-Wave. Earth Science Informatics.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s12145-024-01403-6
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn1865-0481
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/70237
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.isPartOfEarth Science Informatics
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-024-01403-6
dc.titleEstimating S-wave amplitude for earthquake early warning in New Zealand: Leveraging the first 3 seconds of P-Wave
dc.typeJournal article
massey.relation.uri-descriptionPublished version
pubs.elements-id489702
pubs.organisational-groupCollege of Humanities and Social Sciences
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