Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities.

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dc.citation.issue216
dc.citation.volume21
dc.contributor.authorJohn RS
dc.contributor.authorFatoyinbo HO
dc.contributor.authorHayman DTS
dc.coverage.spatialEngland
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-05T01:52:08Z
dc.date.available2024-08-05T01:52:08Z
dc.date.issued2024-07-24
dc.description.abstractLassa fever is a West African rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever that kills thousands of people a year, with 100 000 to 300 000 people a year probably infected by Lassa virus (LASV). The main reservoir of LASV is the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. There is reported asynchrony between peak infection in the rodent population and peak Lassa fever risk among people, probably owing to differing seasonal contact rates. Here, we developed a susceptible-infected-recovered ([Formula: see text])-based model of LASV dynamics in its rodent host, M. natalensis, with a persistently infected class and seasonal birthing to test the impact of changes to seasonal birthing in the future owing to climate and land use change. Our simulations suggest shifting rodent birthing timing and synchrony will alter the peak of viral prevalence, changing risk to people, with viral dynamics mainly stable in adults and varying in the young, but with more infected individuals. We calculate the time-average basic reproductive number, [Formula: see text], for this infectious disease system with periodic changes to population sizes owing to birthing using a time-average method and with a sensitivity analysis show four key parameters: carrying capacity, adult mortality, the transmission parameter among adults and additional disease-induced mortality impact the maintenance of LASV in M. natalensis most, with carrying capacity and adult mortality potentially changeable owing to human activities and interventions.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.edition2024
dc.format.pagination20240106-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39045680
dc.identifier.citationJohn RS, Fatoyinbo HO, Hayman DTS. (2024). Modelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities.. J R Soc Interface. 21. 216. (pp. 20240106-).
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsif.2024.0106
dc.identifier.eissn1742-5662
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn1742-5689
dc.identifier.number20240106
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71193
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.publisher.urihttps://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2024.0106
dc.relation.isPartOfJ R Soc Interface
dc.rights(c) 2024 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectLassa fever
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectland use change
dc.subjecttime-average basic reproductive number
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectLassa Fever
dc.subjectLassa virus
dc.subjectMurinae
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectModels, Biological
dc.subjectDisease Reservoirs
dc.subjectAfrica, Western
dc.subjectSeasons
dc.subjectFemale
dc.titleModelling Lassa virus dynamics in West African Mastomys natalensis and the impact of human activities.
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id490847
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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