Analyzing Risk Perception, Evacuation Decision and Delay Time: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado

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dc.citation.volume35
dc.contributor.authorForrister A
dc.contributor.authorKuligowski ED
dc.contributor.authorSun Y
dc.contributor.authorYan X
dc.contributor.authorLovreglio R
dc.contributor.authorCova TJ
dc.contributor.authorZhao X
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-04T23:44:29Z
dc.date.available2024-09-04T23:44:29Z
dc.date.issued2023-12-11
dc.description.abstractClimate change is increasing the threat of wildfires to populated areas, especially those within the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The 2021 Marshall fire forced the evacuation of over 30,000 people in Boulder, Jefferson and Adams Counties in Colorado, US. To improve our understanding of wildfire evacuation response, we surveyed individuals affected by the Marshall fire to analyze their evacuation decisions and resulting behavior. We used linear and logistic regression models to determine the factors influencing individuals’ risk perceptions, their decisions to evacuate or stay, and the associated evacuation delay times. We found higher levels of risk perception at the time of the evacuation decision were associated with higher levels of pre-fire perceived risk, having mid-level household income, the receipt of fire cues and having a medical condition. Increased pre-event risk perception increased the likelihood of evacuating, along with gender (female-identified), being aged between 55 and 64 years, and having a higher household income. On the other hand, having a prior awareness of wildfires had a negative effect on evacuation likelihood. Additionally, having previous experience with fire damage, owning their home, having a larger household size and being alerted later in the fire event reduced the delay time; whereas engaging in preparation activities and having children in the home led to longer delay times. These research findings can be used by emergency managers to better prepare WUI communities for future wildfire events.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionApril 2024
dc.identifier.citationForrister A, Kuligowski ED, Sun Y, Yan X, Lovreglio R, Cova TJ, Zhao X. (2024). Analyzing Risk Perception, Evacuation Decision and Delay Time: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado. Travel Behaviour and Society. 35.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.tbs.2023.100729
dc.identifier.eissn2214-3688
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn2214-367X
dc.identifier.number100729
dc.identifier.piiS2214367X23001801
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71414
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214367X23001801
dc.relation.isPartOfTravel Behaviour and Society
dc.rights(c) 2023 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectWildfires
dc.subjectEvacuation
dc.subjectDecision-making
dc.subjectWUI
dc.subjectBushfires
dc.subjectDelay Time
dc.titleAnalyzing Risk Perception, Evacuation Decision and Delay Time: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id485371
pubs.organisational-groupCollege of Health
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