Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter.

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dc.citation.volume15
dc.contributor.authorProbert WJM
dc.contributor.authorShea K
dc.contributor.authorFonnesbeck CJ
dc.contributor.authorRunge MC
dc.contributor.authorCarpenter TE
dc.contributor.authorDürr S
dc.contributor.authorGarner MG
dc.contributor.authorHarvey N
dc.contributor.authorStevenson MA
dc.contributor.authorWebb CT
dc.contributor.authorWerkman M
dc.contributor.authorTildesley MJ
dc.contributor.authorFerrari MJ
dc.date.available2016-06
dc.date.available2015-11-25
dc.date.issued2016-06
dc.description.abstractFormal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is to define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate the imperative of framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal control actions for control of disease outbreaks. We illustrate an analysis that can be applied rapidly at the start of an outbreak when there are multiple stakeholders involved with potentially multiple objectives, and when there are also multiple disease models upon which to compare control actions. The output of our analysis frames subsequent discourse between policy-makers, modellers and other stakeholders, by highlighting areas of discord among different management objectives and also among different models used in the analysis. We illustrate this approach in the context of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Cumbria, UK using outputs from five rigorously-studied simulation models of FMD spread. We present both relative rankings and relative performance of controls within each model and across a range of objectives. Results illustrate how control actions change across both the base metric used to measure management success and across the statistic used to rank control actions according to said metric. This work represents a first step towards reconciling the extensive modelling work on disease control problems with frameworks for structured decision making.
dc.description.publication-statusPublished
dc.format.extentOct-19
dc.identifierhttp://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000377870200002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=c5bb3b2499afac691c2e3c1a83ef6fef
dc.identifier.citationEPIDEMICS, 2016, 15 pp. 10 - 19
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.epidem.2015.11.002
dc.identifier.eissn1878-0067
dc.identifier.elements-id261522
dc.identifier.harvestedMassey_Dark
dc.identifier.issn1755-4365
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10179/9797
dc.relation.isPartOfEPIDEMICS
dc.subjectEpidemiology
dc.subjectManagement
dc.subjectDecision making
dc.subjectOptimisation
dc.subjectObjectives
dc.subjectFoot-and-mouth disease
dc.subject.anzsrc1103 Clinical Sciences
dc.subject.anzsrc1117 Public Health and Health Services
dc.titleDecision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter.
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.notesNot known
pubs.organisational-group/Massey University
pubs.organisational-group/Massey University/College of Sciences
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