Stress, anxiety, and belief in conspiracy theories : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Psychology at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

Abstract

The Existential Threat Model of Conspiracy Theories by van Prooijen et al. (2009) implies that perceived stress and anxiety may affect belief in conspiracy theories. The existing literature has provided some evidence that stress and anxiety are positively correlated with belief in conspiracy theories, but it remains unclear whether this is a causal effect. We applied contemporary methodological literature to provide causal inferences about whether higher perceived stress and anxiety significantly predicted an increased belief in conspiracy theories while controlling for age, education, subjective social status and political orientation. A structural equation model tested the effect in two observational survey-based studies. In Study 1 (N = 502), a cross-sectional study of Australasian participants indicated that perceived stress and anxiety did not have a significant estimated effect on belief in conspiracy theories. In Study 2 (N = 1020), a cross-sectional study of US participants showed a significant positive effect of perceived stress on belief in conspiracy theories, but not of anxiety. The present results provide tentative evidence for an effect of perceived stress on belief in conspiracy theories; however, it is becoming increasingly evident that this effect is small. The implication of this is the possibility that the Existential Threat Model of Conspiracy Theories may not be a helpful explanation of belief in conspiracy theories.