Does Developing a Belief in One Conspiracy Theory Lead a Person to be More Likely to Believe in Others?

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dc.contributor.authorWilliams MN
dc.contributor.authorMarques MD
dc.contributor.authorKerr JR
dc.contributor.authorHill SR
dc.contributor.authorLing M
dc.contributor.authorClarke EJR
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-24T01:32:07Z
dc.date.available2025-03-24T01:32:07Z
dc.date.issued2025-02-17
dc.description.abstractThe monological belief system model suggests that—for at least a subset of people—developing a belief in one conspiracy theory will cause them to be more likely to believe in others. This model has been influential in the literature, but its core causal hypothesis has never been credibly tested. We therefore tested it in two longitudinal studies. Study 1 used a sample from New Zealand and Australia (N = 498), with 7 monthly waves. Study 2 (preregistered) used a sample from New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom (N = 978), with 13 monthly waves. We applied random intercept cross-lagged panel models, permitting a credible causal identification strategy, albeit we cannot rule out time-varying confounds. We find that increased belief in a conspiracy theory at one wave did (on average) predict increased belief in other conspiracies at the next wave, although the estimated coefficients were small.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.identifier.citationWilliams M, Marques MD, Kerr JR, Hill S, Ling M, Clarke EJR. (2025). Does developing a belief in one conspiracy theory lead a person to be more likely to believe in others?. European Journal of Social Psychology.
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/ejsp.3153
dc.identifier.eissn1099-0992
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0046-2772
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/72683
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherJohn Wiley and Sons Ltd
dc.relation.isPartOfEuropean Journal of Social Psychology
dc.relation.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.3153
dc.rights(c) 2025 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectConspiracy
dc.subjectLongitudinal
dc.subjectMonological
dc.subjectPolitical psychology
dc.titleDoes Developing a Belief in One Conspiracy Theory Lead a Person to be More Likely to Believe in Others?
dc.typeJournal article
massey.relation.uri-descriptionPublished version
pubs.elements-id500003
pubs.organisational-groupCollege of Humanities and Social Sciences
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