Are native shrubs a sustainable alternative to radiata pine on steep slopes? Insights using bioeconomic model for hill country farms in New Zealand

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dc.citation.volumeLatest Articles
dc.contributor.authorWangui JC
dc.contributor.authorMillner JP
dc.contributor.authorKenyon PR
dc.contributor.authorPain SJ
dc.contributor.authorTozer PR
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-21T02:38:34Z
dc.date.available2025-05-21T02:38:34Z
dc.date.issued2025-05-07
dc.description.abstractLimited data on native shrubs has hindered direct comparisons with pine radiata as afforestation options for steep slopes on New Zealand hill country sheep and beef farms. This study updated a native shrub sub-model (NSM) with new research data and developed a radiata pine sub-model (RPM) for integration into a bioeconomic model using STELLA Architect. The model assessed asynchronous afforestation of 10% of effective farm area with either option, comparing impacts on feed supply, sheep dynamics, and farm economics. NSM was updated with growth curve, foliage biomass, and carbon stock data from two New Zealand sites. RPM used literature for growth curve, carbon, and log production data. Simulations included a pasture-only (base) and afforestation with either species at 10% and 20% planting rates. Native shrubs reduced feed supply by 2.5% and 4.0%, while radiata pine reduced it by 7.0% and 7.4% at 10% and 20% planting rates. Reduced feed led to smaller flocks and lower cash flow. Radiata pine generated surplus through carbon and log income, offsetting reduced sheep flock cash flow, while native shrubs did not. Carbon prices of 64.2 and137.4 NZD/NZU would be needed for viability in the best- and worst-case scenarios. Native shrubs are potential land use option on steep slopes but require policy intervention to lower establishment costs and carbon prices.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.format.pagination1-26
dc.identifier.citationWangui JC, Millner JP, Kenyon PR, Pain SJ, Tozer PR. (2025). Are native shrubs a sustainable alternative to radiata pine on steep slopes? Insights using bioeconomic model for hill country farms in New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research. Latest Articles. (pp. 1-26).
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/00288233.2025.2499247
dc.identifier.eissn1175-8775
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0028-8233
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/72925
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherTaylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00288233.2025.2499247
dc.relation.isPartOfNew Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research
dc.rights(c) The author/sen
dc.rights.licenseCC BY-NC-ND 4.0en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en
dc.subjectNative shrubs
dc.subjectradiata pine
dc.subjecthill country
dc.subjectbioeconomic
dc.subjectcarbon stock
dc.subjectsheep
dc.subjectNew Zealand
dc.titleAre native shrubs a sustainable alternative to radiata pine on steep slopes? Insights using bioeconomic model for hill country farms in New Zealand
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id500746
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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