Human-wildlife conflict outside protected areas : drivers, consequences, and mitigation strategies : a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Conservation Biology at Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand

Abstract

My thesis investigates the patterns, drivers, and impacts of human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) in the mid-hill region outside protected areas (PAs) of Nepal in order to improve wildlife conservation and human-wildlife coexistence in a human dominated landscape. The forests of this region have been managed under the community forestry (CF) system, where wildlife conservation is less prioritized and less studied due to the timber-oriented forest management system. My study is focused on addressing the knowledge gaps on wildlife conservation and HWC management aspects within the CF system in this landscape. The content of the thesis is categorized into four broad themes: overall spatial and temporal patterns of HWC in Nepal during the last two decades; drivers of HWC; impacts of HWC; and recommendations to conservation policies and programs. In terms of the drivers of HWC, the study investigates the influences of socioeconomic factors, land use change, predator-prey interactions, climate change, and the policies and practices of the CF program on HWC. Concerning the impacts of HWC, the study investigates the effects on human life, livelihood, and retaliatory wildlife killing. The findings are summarized below by relevant themes. • Conflicts between people and four large wildlife species, i.e., Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), rhinoceroses (Rhinoceros unicornis), tigers (Panthera tigris), and common leopards (Panthera pardus), have increased in Nepal during the last two decades (2000-2020). The loss of these megafauna is highly correlated with the human losses caused by these species. It demonstrates that retaliatory wildlife loss is the most challenging issue for large animal conservation. Similarly, the extent of agricultural area within the district was shown to be positively related to both wildlife and human loss, while the literacy rate of people was found to be negatively related to both wildlife and human loss. • I found 1139 cases of human caused wildlife mortality, and out of four megafaunas, leopards had the highest overall tendency of anthropogenic killing, followed by rhinos, tigers, and elephants. On the other hand, during the 21-year span, I recorded 887 occurrences of human loss. Leopard was the leading cause of human death, followed by elephant, tiger, and rhino. Elephant attacks on humans have significantly increased over the last 21 years, while attacks of the other three wildlife have steadily increased. • The patterns of wildlife attacks on humans are influenced by spatial and temporal factors. Wildlife attacks increased from September to December. The majority of attacks took place between the hours of 15:00 and 20:00. The majority of the attacks occurred in human settlement areas, followed by agricultural land and forest areas. The likelihood of human attacked by wildlife rises as altitude decreases, village distance from nearest forest area decreases, and people's reliance on forest resources increases. The number of HWC victims was significantly higher among farmers and people under the age of 20. • Due to the emigration of people, abandonment of agricultural land near villages has increased in mid-hill region. The regeneration of bushes and trees on these abandoned farms has allowed wild animals to move closer to villages, increasing the incidence of HWC. This is a new dimension of HWC in this landscape. • I assessed density of leopard and relative abundance of prey species using the camera trap method on 200 square kilometers of CFs in Tanahun district. I discovered 14 individual leopards at a density of 16.3 /100 km2 (MARK) and 15.2 /100 km2 (DENSITY) one of the highest leopard densities ever reported in Nepal. However, the Relative abundance of wild ungulates (barking deer and wild boar) was very low, whereas the abundance of monkeys was highest, followed by large Indian civets, jungle cats, and hares. Similarly, I found 569 number of the preys (livestock + wild species) at the study site using the line transect method, with wild ungulates (conventional wild prey species like barking deer and wild boar) having the lowest detection rate. Leopard scats analysis revealed 15 prey species in the leopard's diet, including wild prey (ungulates, birds, and small mammals) and livestock. Wild ungulates (barking deer and wild boar) accounted for only 12% of the biomass calculated from scat analyses, while livestock accounted for 31% and other wild prey accounted for 57%. Domestic goats contributed the highest relative prey biomass of any species. These studies led to the conclusion that decreased natural prey availability, particularly wild ungulates, may have forced leopards to move into human settlements in search of food, increasing the incidence of human-leopard conflict. • I investigated the current and potential future ranges of common leopards using MaxEnt modeling. My study classified the leopard's habitat as highly suitable, suitable, marginally suitable, and unsuitable. In the high mountain region, a significant increase in marginally suitable habitat was observed under the climate change scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, indicating a shift in habitat to higher elevation areas due to the effects of climate change. I recommend that these potential habitats be managed in a timely manner in order to conserve this vulnerable species and manage potential human leopard conflict in its new habitat. • Based on an evaluation of past and current policies and practices on CF, I discovered that forest laws, regulations, and guidelines did not include all of the provisions required to address wildlife conservation and HWC mitigation in CFs outside of PAs. Community Forest Operation Plans (CFOPs) developed in response to these acts and regulations did not adequately integrate such activities and actions into their plans. As a result, cases of HWC in CFs outside of PAs in Nepal are steadily increasing. • HWC in the mid-hill region had a significant impact on the lives and well-being of local people. During 2015–2019, predators killed 27% of the livestock owned by local people, resulting in a 23% loss of household income. During the same period, local people lost 24% of their crops due to wildlife damage, resulting in a 17% decrease in household income. The most severe impact of HWC is the loss of human life. During the period of 2015-2019, ten people were killed by wildlife. • Policy recommendations include revising forest laws and regulations to include a wildlife conservation and HWC mitigation provision in the CF management, establishing more PAs in mid-hill regions, conserving wildlife in a landscape approach, establishing a relief fund for wildlife victims at the local level, and linking insurance schemes to crop and livestock loss. • Controlling habitat fragmentation and carrying out habitat management activities within CFs, carrying out incentive-based agroforestry programs on abandoned agricultural land, conducting mass public awareness campaigns, and controlling retaliatory killing through community-based conservation programs and proper law enforcement are major program-level recommendations. • The study also recommends strengthening the provincial as well as the national level HWC database and conducting nationwide research on the impact of the CF program on wildlife management and HWC for future planning.