Does geopolitical risk shape energy consumption and carbon emissions? The role of technology innovation and energy security

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and renewable energy consumption (REC) from multiple perspectives, addressing a critical gap in the literature. Using the latest GPR index and a panel data of 43 countries and regions between 1985 and 2021, we conclude that GPR has a negative impact on REC while increasing reliance on fossil fuels, thereby contributing to higher CO₂ emissions. Mechanism analysis demonstrates the mediating role of technological innovation and energy security. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative GPR–REC relationship is weaker in energy exporting and developed countries. Additionally, our analysis shows that the negative impact of GPR weakens over time, and there exists a nonlinear relationship between GPR and REC. Our findings provide critical insights into GPR's dual-edged role and its implications. They offer valuable guidance for policymakers seeking to strengthen institutional capacity, expand energy reserves, and promote innovation in renewable energy. Such measures can help mitigate the short-term suppressive effects of geopolitical risk, while also capitalizing on long-term opportunities to accelerate the transition toward a secure, resilient, and low-carbon energy system.