A modular framework for the development of multi-hazard, multi-phase volcanic eruption scenario suites

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dc.citation.volume427
dc.contributor.authorWeir AM
dc.contributor.authorMead S
dc.contributor.authorBebbington MS
dc.contributor.authorWilson TM
dc.contributor.authorBeaven S
dc.contributor.authorGordon T
dc.contributor.authorCampbell-Smart C
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-02T21:56:47Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-03T04:55:09Z
dc.date.available2022-04-29
dc.date.available2023-11-02T21:56:47Z
dc.date.available2023-11-03T04:55:09Z
dc.date.issued2022-07
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding future volcanic eruptions and their potential impact is a critical component of disaster risk reduction, and necessitates the production of salient, robust hazard information for decision-makers and end-users. Volcanic eruptions are inherently multi-phase, multi-hazard events, and the uncertainty and complexity surrounding potential future hazard behaviour is exceedingly hard to communicate to decision-makers. Volcanic eruption scenarios are recognised to be an effective knowledge-sharing mechanism between scientists and practitioners, and recent hybrid scenario suites partially address the limitations surrounding the traditional deterministic scenario approach. Despite advances in scenario suite development, there is still a gap in the international knowledge base concerning the synthesis of multi-phase, multi-hazard volcano science and end-user needs. In this study we present a new modular framework for the development of complex, long-duration, multi-phase, multi-hazard volcanic eruption scenario suites. The framework was developed in collaboration with volcanic risk management agencies and researchers in Aotearoa-New Zealand, and is applied to Taranaki Mounga volcano, an area of high volcanic risk. This collaborative process aimed to meet end-user requirements, as well as the need for scientific rigour. This new scenario framework development process could be applied at other volcanic settings to produce robust, credible and relevant scenario suites that are demonstrative of the complex, varying-duration and multi-hazard nature of volcanic eruptions. In addressing this gap, the value of volcanic scenario development is enhanced by advancing multi-hazard assessment capabilities and cross-sector collaboration between scientists and practitioners for disaster risk reduction planning.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionJuly 2022
dc.identifier.citationWeir AM, Mead S, Bebbington MS, Wilson TM, Beaven S, Gordon T, Campbell-Smart C. (2022). A modular framework for the development of multi-hazard, multi-phase volcanic eruption scenario suites. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 427.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2022.107557
dc.identifier.eissn1872-6097
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0377-0273
dc.identifier.number107557
dc.identifier.piiS0377027322000889
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/69013
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier BV
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027322000889
dc.relation.isPartOfJournal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
dc.rights(c) The author/s CC BY-NC-NDen
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectDynamic risk
dc.subjectMulti-phase scenario
dc.subjectEmergency management
dc.subjectDisaster risk reduction
dc.subjectMt Taranaki
dc.subjectNew Zealand
dc.titleA modular framework for the development of multi-hazard, multi-phase volcanic eruption scenario suites
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id453331
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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