COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study

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dc.citation.volume15
dc.contributor.authorNguyen T
dc.contributor.authorAdnan M
dc.contributor.authorNguyen BP
dc.contributor.authorde Ligt J
dc.contributor.authorGeoghegan JL
dc.contributor.authorDean R
dc.contributor.authorJefferies S
dc.contributor.authorBaker MG
dc.contributor.authorSeah WKG
dc.contributor.authorSporle AA
dc.contributor.authorFrench NP
dc.contributor.authorMurdoch DR
dc.contributor.authorWelch D
dc.contributor.authorSimpson CR
dc.coverage.spatialEngland
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-25T00:25:24Z
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-25T06:38:53Z
dc.date.available2021-08-19
dc.date.available2024-01-25T00:25:24Z
dc.date.available2024-07-25T06:38:53Z
dc.date.issued2021-10
dc.description.abstractBackground: COVID-19 elimination measures, including border closures have been applied in New Zealand. We have modelled the potential effect of vaccination programmes for opening borders. Methods: We used a deterministic age-stratified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model. We minimised spread by varying the age-stratified vaccine allocation to find the minimum herd immunity requirements (the effective reproduction number Reff<1 with closed borders) under various vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios and R0 values. We ran two-year open-border simulations for two vaccine strategies: minimising Reff and targeting high-risk groups. Findings: Targeting of high-risk groups will result in lower hospitalisations and deaths in most scenarios. Reaching the herd immunity threshold (HIT) with a vaccine of 90% VE against disease and 80% VE against infection requires at least 86•5% total population uptake for R0=4•5 (with high vaccination coverage for 30-49-year-olds) and 98•1% uptake for R0=6. In a two-year open-border scenario with 10 overseas cases daily and 90% total population vaccine uptake (including 0-15 year olds) with the same vaccine, the strategy of targeting high-risk groups is close to achieving HIT, with an estimated 11,400 total hospitalisations (peak 324 active and 36 new daily cases in hospitals), and 1,030 total deaths. Interpretation: Targeting high-risk groups for vaccination will result in fewer hospitalisations and deaths with open borders compared to targeting reduced transmission. With a highly effective vaccine and a high total uptake, opening borders will result in increasing cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Other public health and social measures will still be required as part of an effective pandemic response. Funding: This project was funded by the Health Research Council [20/1018]. Research in context.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionOctober 2021
dc.format.pagination100256-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34426804
dc.identifier.citationNguyen T, Adnan M, Nguyen BP, de Ligt J, Geoghegan JL, Dean R, Jefferies S, Baker MG, Seah WK, Sporle AA, French NP, Murdoch DR, Welch D, Simpson CR. (2021). COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study.. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 15. (pp. 100256-).
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100256
dc.identifier.eissn2666-6065
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn2666-6065
dc.identifier.numberARTN 100256
dc.identifier.piiS2666-6065(21)00165-6
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/70607
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherElsevier Ltd
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606521001656
dc.relation.isPartOfLancet Reg Health West Pac
dc.rights(c) 2021 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectElimination
dc.subjectHerd immunity threshold
dc.subjectModelling
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjectVaccination
dc.subjectVaccine effectiveness
dc.titleCOVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id448281
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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