Utility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities

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dc.citation.volume8
dc.contributor.authorPepin KM
dc.contributor.authorLeach CB
dc.contributor.authorMarques-Toledo C
dc.contributor.authorLaass KH
dc.contributor.authorPaixao KS
dc.contributor.authorLuis AD
dc.contributor.authorHayman DTS
dc.contributor.authorJohnson NG
dc.contributor.authorBuhnerkempe MG
dc.contributor.authorCarver S
dc.contributor.authorGrear DA
dc.contributor.authorTsao K
dc.contributor.authorEiras AE
dc.contributor.authorWebb CT
dc.coverage.spatialEngland
dc.date.available2015-02-15
dc.date.available2015-01-12
dc.date.issued2015-12
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Vector control remains the primary defense against dengue fever. Its success relies on the assumption that vector density is related to disease transmission. Two operational issues include the amount by which mosquito density should be reduced to minimize transmission and the spatio-temporal allotment of resources needed to reduce mosquito density in a cost-effective manner. Recently, a novel technology, MI-Dengue, was implemented city-wide in several Brazilian cities to provide real-time mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control resources. We sought to understand the role of city-wide mosquito density data in predicting disease incidence in order to provide guidance for prioritization of vector control work. METHODS: We used hierarchical Bayesian regression modeling to examine the role of city-wide vector surveillance data in predicting human cases of dengue fever in space and time. We used four years of weekly surveillance data from Vitoria city, Brazil, to identify the best model structure. We tested effects of vector density, lagged case data and spatial connectivity. We investigated the generality of the best model using an additional year of data from Vitoria and two years of data from other Brazilian cities: Governador Valadares and Sete Lagoas. RESULTS: We found that city-wide, neighborhood-level averages of household vector density were a poor predictor of dengue-fever cases in the absence of accounting for interactions with human cases. Effects of city-wide spatial patterns were stronger than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood effects. Readily available proxies of spatial relationships between human cases, such as economic status, population density or between-neighborhood roadway distance, did not explain spatial patterns in cases better than unweighted global effects. CONCLUSIONS: For spatial prioritization of vector controls, city-wide spatial effects should be given more weight than within-neighborhood or nearest-neighborhood connections, in order to minimize city-wide cases of dengue fever. More research is needed to determine which data could best inform city-wide connectivity. Once these data become available, MI-dengue may be even more effective if vector control is spatially prioritized by considering city-wide connectivity between cases together with information on the location of mosquito density and infected mosquitos.
dc.description.publication-statusPublished online
dc.format.extent98 - ?
dc.identifierhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25889533
dc.identifier10.1186/s13071-015-0659-y
dc.identifier.citationParasit Vectors, 2015, 8 pp. 98 - ?
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s13071-015-0659-y
dc.identifier.eissn1756-3305
dc.identifier.elements-id232364
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherBioMed Central
dc.relation.isPartOfParasit Vectors
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectBrazil
dc.subjectCities
dc.subjectDengue
dc.subjectDisease Transmission, Infectious
dc.subjectEpidemiological Monitoring
dc.subjectHealth Care Rationing
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectModels, Statistical
dc.subjectMosquito Control
dc.subjectSpatio-Temporal Analysis
dc.subject.anzsrc1108 Medical Microbiology
dc.subject.anzsrc1117 Public Health and Health Services
dc.titleUtility of mosquito surveillance data for spatial prioritization of vector control against dengue viruses in three Brazilian cities
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.notesNot known
pubs.organisational-group/Massey University
pubs.organisational-group/Massey University/College of Sciences
pubs.organisational-group/Massey University/College of Sciences/School of Veterinary Science
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