From scientific models to decisions: exploring uncertainty communication gaps between scientists and decision-makers

Abstract

Effective communication of uncertainty relies on transparent exchanges between scientists and decision-makers. However, significant gaps often exist between how scientists and decision-makers perceive, understand, and communicate uncertainty. This study examines the dynamics of uncertainty communication between scientists and decision-makers, employing a reflective thematic analysis of 32 interview datasets, comprising 17 scientists and 15 decision-makers. Our results show that Scientists typically approach uncertainty through methodological rigour, employing technical vocabulary and probabilistic language, which aligns with their scientific training but often complicates comprehension for decision-makers. Conversely, decision-makers prioritise actionable insights and practical implications, requiring uncertainty to be communicated in a way that supports decision-making processes across diverse contexts. The study further highlights the need for tailored communication strategies that bridge the complexities of uncertainty with the practical needs of decision-makers, emphasising collaboration and user-focused uncertainty visualisations as pathways to enhance uncertainty communication between scientists and decision-makers for the uptake of uncertainty information into decision-making.