Community vulnerability and resilience to mobility-related disruptions caused by floods : a systems-based approach : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geography, at Massey University, Manawatū, New Zealand. EMBARGOED to 10 March 2027.

Abstract

Some communities in developing countries experience flood impacts repeatedly despite different measures taken to reduce disaster risk, leaving us with a critical question of why they could not build back better after one major hazard. This research aims to investigate the complexity of the community’s vulnerability to mobility-related disruptions and their resilience using a systems approach as a framework to guide how communities can build back better, taking the Western Province of Sri Lanka as a case study. The study spatially assesses the community’s vulnerability to mobility-related flood disruptions in the Western Province using an indicator-based GIS approach. The spatial assessment reveals that vulnerability to mobility disruptions is clustered, highlighting patterns of exposure. Focusing on the Kaduwela Grama Niladhari Division, identified as part of a high-vulnerability cluster from the spatial assessment, the thesis employs fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to identify the factors determining mobility-related disruptions and the community's capacity to cope, as well as their interdependencies. The analysis found that (im)mobility largely depends on where people choose to stay during a flood, which, in turn, affects their coping mechanisms. The third objective focuses on studying the interdependencies of mobility recovery using a systems thinking approach, specifically through causal loop diagrams (CLDs). This analysis shows that mobility recovery is interdependent on other recoveries, including flood level reduction, road restoration, household recovery, and transit service restoration. It also uncovers the cause-and-effect relationships between pre-existing vulnerabilities and current temporary recovery efforts, demonstrating how sustainable recovery initiatives can potentially reduce the impact of future floods. Lastly, stock-flow models developed based on the causal loop diagrams are presented as a potential framework to guide to build back better. These models allow for testing various scenarios, offering insights into potential interventions and their consequences before implementation. Based on these findings, the thesis offers several recommendations to policymakers: to consider cluster-oriented solutions for reducing vulnerability to mobility disruptions; to account for place-based interdependencies during emergency management; to adopt a systems thinking approach to design sustainable recovery actions that reduce system vulnerability in future hazards; and to use system dynamics as a tool to understand how recovery time can be shortened and disruptions minimized in subsequent disasters.