Model-based packaging design for minimising environmental impact of horticultural packaging systems : a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Food Technology at Massey University, New Zealand. EMBARGOED until 13 November 2026.
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Date
2024
DOI
Open Access Location
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Massey University
Embargoed until 13 November 2026
Embargoed until 13 November 2026
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© The Author
Abstract
Packaging systems are instrumental in delivering high-quality food products to consumers. Food industries grapple with losses throughout the supply chain, resulting in both product and monetary setbacks. When considering the embodied resources in food production, including raw materials, energy, water, and emissions, minimising losses in any stage of the food supply chain is crucial. The New Zealand kiwifruit industry faces several constraints which include short harvest seasons, considerable distance to markets and year-round consumer demand. Packaging and storage plays a role in overcoming these factors by preventing undesirable quality loss traits. Establishing the link between packaging systems, supply chain conditions, and kiwifruit quality (specifically shrivel) provides a basis for evaluating the trade-off between over-packaging and excessing fruit loss. In this thesis, an integrated-mathematical model was developed to aid decision-making in for kiwifruit packaging, aiming to minimise the overall environmental impact throughout the kiwifruit supply chains from packhouse to purchase. This integrated-mathematical model facilitates exploratory analysis of both current and future supply chains and packaging systems. Four models were integrated: mass balance, moisture loss prediction, shrivel loss prediction and an optimisation engine.
The mass balance model captured the kiwifruit and packaging masses and associated environmental impacts within kiwifruit supply chains. This model, applicable to any environmental metric, was developed to facilitate the prediction of kiwifruit losses. To validate its accuracy, the framework was applied in assessment examples, comparing its performance against existing research for kiwifruit supply chains. The absolute difference between predicted and actual emissions of CO2eq were less than 1% of the actual mean emissions at different stages of the supply chain.
The moisture loss model was used to estimate kiwifruit weight loss both on a packaging unit and individual kiwifruit basis. The model demonstrated close agreement between weight loss predictions and experimental data for average packaging weight loss scenarios. Further refinement is needed to predict individual kiwifruit weight loss, specifically considering the impacts of packaging features on internal packaging water vapour distributions.
The shrivel prediction model revealed that predicting kiwifruit losses due to shrivel posed challenges, primarily due to the current knowledge gap regarding the development of shrivel in kiwifruit under storage conditions. While increases in shrivel has been correlated to weight loss in existing literature, the reference state (at orchard, packhouse etc.) is arbitrary. Ideally shrivel would be related to an intrinsic property that could be measured at any point in time without requiring knowledge of this prior history of the fruit. The prediction of losses based on a non-relative starting point represents a knowledge gap addressed in this work, with potential improvements identified for future model iterations. This phase of the model development heavily relied on data collection to establish a mathematical relationship between weight loss and shrivel.
The moisture loss and shrivel model served as the foundation for the development of an optimisation engine, enabling the identification of the optimal use of packaging. This model sought a balance between packaging mass and kiwifruit losses, employing various environmental impact categories as performance metrics. The success of this approach was evident as optimal packaging points were identified across (i) different packaging materials, (ii) different packaging materials and formats and (iii) different environmental impact categories. It was found that each optimum point for materials were unique to the ambient conditions of the supply chain, packaging format and material. This work revealed trade-offs between the environmental impact of the packaging material and amount of kiwifruit loss, numerically demonstrating what so far has only been presented as a theoretical concept in other research.
Then, this integrated-model was applied to a range of real-life supply chain scenarios showcasing its versatility in addressing possible questions such as ‘what if ?’, ‘can we ?’ and ‘when can we ?. The application of the model to real-life scenarios demonstrated its utility for decision-making with respect to packaging materials and formats. This model is poised to offer crucial support for future packaging materials and supply chains. The limitation of this model lies in fruit loss predictions. To further model applicability, there remains further investigation of hypotheses developed during shrivel model development to refine the kiwifruit loss model. There also remains the opportunity to integrate more prediction models that account for the impact of packaging on other drivers of fruit loss, such as ethylene concentrations within the pack.
While the integrated model developed in this thesis has some limitations in accurately predicting kiwifruit losses, this study highlights the significance of linking packaging performance and kiwifruit quality when evaluating environmental impacts. Although kiwifruit served as the focus in this work, the model created here paves the way for exploring the application of optimised packaging systems for other food commodities.
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Keywords
kiwifruit, packaging, shelf-life, sustainability, environmental impact, quality, supply chain, Kiwifruit, New Zealand, Postharvest losses, Prevention, Moisture, Mathematical models, Packaging, Environmental aspects