Probability of freedom from foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype Asia 1 in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia

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dc.citation.volume244
dc.contributor.authorWada M
dc.contributor.authorHan J-H
dc.contributor.authorPurevsuren B
dc.contributor.authorRinzin K
dc.contributor.authorSutar A
dc.contributor.authorAbila R
dc.contributor.authorSubharat S
dc.date.accessioned2025-08-28T01:46:51Z
dc.date.available2025-08-28T01:46:51Z
dc.date.issued2025-11-01
dc.description.abstractFoot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotype Asia 1 has not been reported in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia between 2018 and 2024, despite the endemicity of FMD in this region and the continued circulation of serotype Asia 1 in South Asia. While vaccines against Asia 1 are still occasionally used in this region, it is unknown whether the absence of reports indicates true disease freedom or surveillance gaps. This study aimed to estimate the sensitivity of existing passive surveillance systems, and the probability of regional freedom from serotype Asia 1 across eight countries using the scenario tree approach. Two stochastic scenario tree models were developed to estimate surveillance sensitivity for FMD (any serotypes) and serotype Asia 1 specifically. Country-specific input parameters were derived from a questionnaire survey of in-country experts on FMD vaccination practices, smallholders’ behaviour, sampling protocols and diagnostic laboratory capacity. Additionally, 2010 – 2022 data on FMD clinical samples submitted and confirmed Asia 1 cases were obtained from the World Reference Laboratory for FMD. Under a design annual incidence rate of 10 % at the village level and 20 % at the animal level, estimated surveillance sensitivity for FMD ranged from 100.0 % in Mongolia and 95.9 % in China to 1.7 % in Cambodia and < 0.1 % in Myanmar. Using the effective design incidence rate with a median of 0.02 – 0.07 % at the village level and 20 % at the animal level, the probability of detecting Asia 1 was estimated to be 0.0 – 6.7 % per country and 14.5 % for the region. The estimated probability of regional freedom from Asia 1 was 53.9 % after the first year without reporting. Over years of no reporting, this probability would increase, only if an annual risk of introduction remained below 6 %. The results were most sensitive to parameters related to sampling intensity and smallholders’ behaviour, particularly in countries with high surveillance sensitivity, such as Mongolia and China. Our findings highlight the low sensitivity of passive surveillance in the region, suggesting that serotype Asia 1 may have remained undetected under the current surveillance efforts. Strengthening data collection and continued efforts in increasing surveillance intensity are essential to improving confidence in the regional freedom from serotype Asia 1.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionNovember 2025
dc.identifier.citationWada M, Han JH, Purevsuren B, Rinzin K, Sutar A, Abila R, Subharat S. (2025). Probability of freedom from foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype Asia 1 in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 244.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106663
dc.identifier.eissn1873-1716
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn0167-5877
dc.identifier.number106663
dc.identifier.piiS016758772500248X
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/73439
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier B V
dc.publisher.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016758772500248X
dc.relation.isPartOfPreventive Veterinary Medicine
dc.rights(c) 2025 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectFoot-and-mouth disease
dc.subjectSurveillance sensitivity
dc.subjectDisease freedom
dc.subjectScenario tree model
dc.subjectSoutheast Asia
dc.subjectPassive surveillance
dc.subjectAsia 1
dc.subjectcattle
dc.subjectSmallholder
dc.subjectVaccination
dc.titleProbability of freedom from foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype Asia 1 in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id502927
pubs.organisational-groupOther
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