Massey Research Online - Browsing by Author "Doyle EEH"

Browsing by Author "Doyle EEH"

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A decade of shaking in the Garden City: the dynamics of preparedness, perceptions, and beliefs in Canterbury, New Zealand, and implications for earthquake information
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-11-11) Becker JS; Vinnell LJ; Doyle EEH; McBride SK; Paton D; Johnston DM; Fallou L
Introduction: This study explored earthquake preparedness over time—before, during, and 10 years after the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) in New Zealand (NZ; known as Aotearoa in te ao Māori). Method: Surveys of Canterbury residents were conducted in 2009, 2013, and 2021, using variables derived from Community Engagement Theory (CET). The surveys measured earthquake perceptions and beliefs, participation and engagement, and preparedness actions. Results were compared across the three samples. Results: Findings indicate that perceptions and beliefs (e.g., risk perception, outcome expectancy beliefs), and types of preparedness actions taken (e.g., collection of survival items, structural preparedness, community and/or agency relationships), differed over time, depending on people's experiences before, during, and after the CES. For example, during and after the CES, people were more likely to believe that preparing provided a benefit to daily life, but less likely to think it could reduce property damage, perhaps due to people's experiences of disruption and damage during the earthquakes. Discussion: An understanding of such dynamics can assist with the provision and timing of risk and preparedness information. This study highlights the importance of providing applicable and actionable preparedness information, that is relevant to people's experiences, throughout an earthquake sequence. Such information might evolve and change in focus over time depending on risks and needs. Focus could also be given to information that builds peoples beliefs and capacities to undertake preparedness in evolving situations. Understanding preparedness in the context of different experiences and timeframes is useful in helping update models such as the CET, where the dynamics of time might be better incorporated.
Communicating natural hazards science advice: Understanding scientists', decision-makers’, and the public's perceptions of the scientific process
(Elsevier B.V., 2025-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill SR; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison SE; Bostrom A; Becker JS
How individuals perceive scientific processes impacts their interpretation of, trust in, and use of, science advice particularly when managing uncertain natural hazard risk. We explored a) how diverse stakeholders understand how science of natural hazards is produced, and b) how this relates to their ontological, epistemological, and philosophical views of science. Using inductive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 31 participants involved in the management of natural hazards in Aotearoa New Zealand (including non-scientists), we produced three leading themes describing their views: 1) ‘Science is a way of seeing the world’; 2) ‘Science has limitations’; and 3) ‘Knowledge evolves’. Across Scientist, non-Scientist, and Lay public groups, there was broad agreement on the fundamental steps of the scientific process, aligning mostly with a hypothetico-deductive process. However, many discussed how others may have different perspectives of scientific approaches, truth, and reality. These are informed by training, disciplinary biases, cultural practices, and personal experience of hazards and associated science. We propose that individuals who recognise different worldviews and philosophies of science will experience higher levels of communication and cognitive uncertainty, which encourages information seeking behaviour and can improve communication efficacy, particularly during high pressure events. We conclude with three communication lessons: 1) be transparent about the processes and causes of change in natural hazards science advice; 2) communicate as both trusted individuals as well as through collective Science Advisory Group (SAG) systems; and 3) provide accessible structures and language to help lay people articulate scientific processes they often intuitively understand, rather than just simplifying information.
Differences in perceived sources of uncertainty in natural hazards science advice: lessons for cross-disciplinary communication
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-04-04) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill SR; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison SE; Bostrom A; Becker JS; Tagliacozzo S
Introduction: We conducted mental model interviews in Aotearoa NZ to understand perspectives of uncertainty associated with natural hazards science. Such science contains many layers of interacting uncertainties, and varied understandings about what these are and where they come from creates communication challenges, impacting the trust in, and use of, science. To improve effective communication, it is thus crucial to understand the many diverse perspectives of scientific uncertainty. Methods: Participants included hazard scientists (n = 11, e.g., geophysical, social, and other sciences), professionals with some scientific training (n = 10, e.g., planners, policy analysts, emergency managers), and lay public participants with no advanced training in science (n = 10, e.g., journalism, history, administration, art, or other domains). We present a comparative analysis of the mental model maps produced by participants, considering individuals’ levels of training and expertise in, and experience of, science. Results: A qualitative comparison identified increasing map organization with science literacy, suggesting greater science training in, experience with, or expertise in, science results in a more organized and structured mental model of uncertainty. There were also language differences, with lay public participants focused more on perceptions of control and safety, while scientists focused on formal models of risk and likelihood. Discussion: These findings are presented to enhance hazard, risk, and science communication. It is important to also identify ways to understand the tacit knowledge individuals already hold which may influence their interpretation of a message. The interview methodology we present here could also be adapted to understand different perspectives in participatory and co-development research.
Exploring communication practices that promote community participation and collective action for reducing disaster risks in New Zealand
(John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of ODI Global, 2025-10-01) Das M; Becker J; Doyle EEH
Emergency management agencies in New Zealand are increasingly engaging with communities to promote civic participation and collective action for reducing disaster risks. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, this paper explores the communication practices that support these efforts. The qualitative findings reveal that emergency management agencies, different government organisations, community-based groups, and local people play a key role in the process. Communicative actions supporting people's participation include scoping and relationship-building activities, awareness-raising events, advertisements and promotions, and community conversations. Based on these findings and guided by communication infrastructure theory, a conceptual map of the communication networks, resources, and processes adopted to promote people's participation and collective action is presented here. The survey results indicate that emergency management agencies are the main communicators promoting people's participation. Interpersonal influence and community conversations are most effective in terms of involving new people. Both the theoretical and practical implications of the study's findings are discussed in this paper.
Fostering civic participation and collective actions for disaster risk reduction: Insights from Aotearoa New Zealand case studies
(Elsevier Ltd., 2024-11-03) Das M; Becker J; Doyle EEH
This paper explores how community members collaborate with emergency management organizations in the pre-disaster stage and engage in collective actions for reducing disaster risks in their communities. Utilizing four qualitative case studies from New Zealand, we examined how local groups interested in reducing community level disaster risks form, the nature of their collective actions and collaboration with emergency management organizations, their facilitators and barriers and the outcomes of the processes. The findings suggest that people's involvement, collaboration, and collective action in the pre-disaster stage entails participating in programmes administered by emergency management organizations through diverse community groups, informal emergency response teams, and specialized volunteer groups. The two primary goals are to have a group of people ready to provide immediate support in an event by maintaining community response teams and making prior arrangements that support people to spontaneously volunteer in an emergency, through community emergency hub approach. These groups engage in tasks such as creating community response plans, maintaining resources, and fostering communication and social capital. The factors facilitating these efforts include hazard awareness, community conversations, institutional support and active DRR organizations, clear objectives, skilled facilitators, and ensuring community solutions are supported. However, currently, community involvement in the pre-disaster stage is narrowly focused on improving response outcomes, lacking a broader perspective of addressing developmental and environmental issues that create risks. They are also rooted in the idea of a solidaristic community and rely on social capital. We discuss the implications of the current practices and the way forward.
From scientific models to decisions: exploring uncertainty communication gaps between scientists and decision-makers
(Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2025-09-01) Dhungana A; Doyle EEH; Prasanna R; McDonald G
Effective communication of uncertainty relies on transparent exchanges between scientists and decision-makers. However, significant gaps often exist between how scientists and decision-makers perceive, understand, and communicate uncertainty. This study examines the dynamics of uncertainty communication between scientists and decision-makers, employing a reflective thematic analysis of 32 interview datasets, comprising 17 scientists and 15 decision-makers. Our results show that Scientists typically approach uncertainty through methodological rigour, employing technical vocabulary and probabilistic language, which aligns with their scientific training but often complicates comprehension for decision-makers. Conversely, decision-makers prioritise actionable insights and practical implications, requiring uncertainty to be communicated in a way that supports decision-making processes across diverse contexts. The study further highlights the need for tailored communication strategies that bridge the complexities of uncertainty with the practical needs of decision-makers, emphasising collaboration and user-focused uncertainty visualisations as pathways to enhance uncertainty communication between scientists and decision-makers for the uptake of uncertainty information into decision-making.
How Visual Design of Severe Weather Outlooks Can Affect Communication and Decision-Making
(American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-16) Clive MAT; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Noble C; Johnston DM
Multiday severe weather outlooks can inform planning beyond the hour-to-day windows of warnings and watches. Outlooks can be complex to visualize, as they represent large-scale weather phenomena overlapping across several days at varying levels of uncertainty. Here, we present the results of a survey (n 5 417) that explores how visual varia-bles affect comprehension, inferences, and intended decision-making in a hypothetical scenario with the New Zealand MetService Severe Weather Outlook. We propose that visualization of the time window, forecast area, icons, and uncertainty can influence perceptions and decision-making based on four key findings. First, composite-style outlooks that depict multiple days of weather on one map can lead to biased perceptions of the forecast. When responding to questions about a day for which participants accurately reported there was no severe weather forecast, those who viewed a composite outlook reported higher likelihoods of severe weather occurring, higher levels of concern about travel, and higher likelihoods of changing plans compared to those who viewed outlooks that showed weather for each day on a separate map, suggesting that they perceived the forecast to underrepresent the likelihood of severe weather on that day. Second, presenting uncertainty in an extrinsic way (e.g., “low”) can lead to more accurate estimates of likelihood than intrinsic formats (e.g., hue variation). Third, shaded forecast areas may lead to higher levels of confidence in the forecast than outlined forecast areas. Fourth, inclusion of weather icons can improve comprehension in some conditions. The results demonstrate how visualization can affect decision-making about severe weather and support several evidence-based considerations for effective design of long-term forecasts.
Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand
(Elsevier Ltd., 2024-10-21) Wein AM; McBride SK; Becker JS; Christophersen A; Doyle EEH; Gerstenberger MC; Potter SH
On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine's Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine's Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.
Nurturing partnerships to support data access for impact forecasts and warnings: Theoretical integration and synthesis
(Elsevier B.V., 2024-04-15) Harrison SE; Potter SH; Prasanna R; Doyle EEH; Johnston D
This paper presents a synthesis and theoretical integration of findings from a research project that explored the data needs and sources for implementing impact forecasts and warnings for hydrometeorological hazards. Impact forecasts and warnings (IFW) have received global attention in recent years as they offer a novel way of improving the communication of hazards and risks. The fundamental idea behind IFWs is to enable warning services to meaningfully communicate the anticipated outcomes, consequences, or impacts of the hazard interacting with society or the environment by incorporating knowledge about the underlying and dynamic exposure and vulnerability of people and assets. One key question for IFW implementation is about data needs and sources to inform IFWs.Using the Grounded Theory Methodology, we address the question “How can partnerships and collaboration better facilitate the collection, creation, and access to hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs?” Our findings point to partnerships and collaboration as a necessary strategy for implementing IFWs. Implementation requires accessing various types and sources of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data to assess and communicate the potential impacts of hydrometeorological hazards. Partnerships and collaboration facilitate the sharing of and access to required data and knowledge. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations to increase interagency communication and partnerships for IFWs and disaster risk reduction, such as making cohabitation arrangements between agencies, running joint training scenarios, and encouraging meteorological services and emergency responders to co-define tailored warning thresholds.
‘One big team working together’ - Shifting narratives to encourage civic participation and collective action in disaster preparedness
(Elsevier Ltd, 2025-02-15) Das M; Becker J; Doyle EEH
Disaster risks cannot be reduced by individual efforts alone and necessitate community participation and collective action. However, communicating and encouraging collective action is difficult. Existing studies show that stories and narratives are useful to convey complex less-understood phenomena, like disasters, in a comprehendible and relatable manner. As such, this paper explores existing disaster narratives and aims to understand how they encourage civic participation and collective action for reducing disaster risks. The findings show that the framing of disasters in mass media narratives are unlikely to encourage collective action as they do not emphasize citizen's agency and efficacy in reducing disaster risks. However, in the narratives shared at the local level between emergency management agencies and community members, there is currently a shift towards emphasizing community agency, efficacy, and responsibilities in reducing disaster risks. Four dominant themes are identified in these narratives: reframing the concept of heroes, promoting connection and care, emphasizing collective efficacy and collective responsibility. While the narratives are beneficial, they also cause some tensions, such as, confusion arising from lingering response-centric narratives; frustration around the collective responsibility narratives; and resistance to the current narratives as they are perceived as attempts by emergency management agencies to transfer emergency management responsibilities to people. The implications of the findings and the future directions are presented.
The communication of volcano information in New Zealand–a narrative review
(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2025-02-13) Das M; Becker JS; Doyle EEH; Charlton D; Clive MA; Krippner J; Vinnell LJ; Miller C; Stewart C; Gabrielsen H; Potter SH; Leonard GS; Johnston DM; Tapuke K; Fournier N; McBride SK
Communication of volcano information is critical for effective volcanic risk management. A variety of information is communicated to inform decisions and guide actions for planning, preparedness, and response. Such information needs to be reliable, and fit-for-purpose across different stages of volcanic activity (quiescence, unrest, short or long-term eruptive stages, and the post-eruptive stage). However, an understanding of communication across these different stages of volcanic activity remains limited. We undertook a narrative review of New Zealand literature to explore what information is communicated about volcanoes, across which stages of activity and by whom. Results highlight that NZ literature only documents certain aspects of volcano information and communication, specifically regarding certain locations, stages of volcanic activity (i.e. quiescence or unrest), or hazards. Literature gaps exist regarding volcano communication during unrest and post-eruptive stages, as well as how volcano information evolves between these phases, and how decision-makers use such information. Additional work would be useful to document existing examples of volcano information for different stages of activity. Further research could help in understanding the information needs of decision-makers during each of these stages to improve information and communication.
Transformative approaches to disaster risk reduction: Social, societal, and environmental contributions to post-disaster capacity building
(Massey University, 2024-12) Paton D; Buergelt PT; Becker JS; Doyle EEH; Jang L-J; Johnston DM; Tedim F
This paper discusses whether Community Engagement Theory (CET) could be augmented in ways that afford opportunities to develop a framework for understanding how emergent change and transformative learning can occur in disaster response and recovery settings. The foundation for doing so derives from appreciating that CET describes process theory that comprises variables representing adaptive capacities. That is, the presence of these capacities enables people to adapt to any set of circumstances, particularly when people are called upon to make decisions and to act during conditions of uncertainty. This approach builds on the potential for variables such as community participation, collective efficacy, and empowerment to provide a social context for people to formulate and enact strategies to support their recovery and to be able to do so when interacting with government, non-government, and business entities. However, based on a critical comparative analysis of relevant research into post-disaster emergent and transformational shifts in community capacity, it is argued that the above variables need to be augmented. The paper discusses the rationale for including factors such as community leadership, governance, place attachment, and city identity in an augmented conceptual transdisciplinary transformative learning Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) model. The function of this model is consistent with the Sendai Framework for DRR Priority 4, Building Back Better goal.
Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
(Elsevier, 2023-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill S; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison S; Bostrom A; Becker J
The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.

Browsing by Author "Doyle EEH"

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