Massey Research Online - Browsing by Author "McBride SK"

Browsing by Author "McBride SK"

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A decade of shaking in the Garden City: the dynamics of preparedness, perceptions, and beliefs in Canterbury, New Zealand, and implications for earthquake information
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-11-11) Becker JS; Vinnell LJ; Doyle EEH; McBride SK; Paton D; Johnston DM; Fallou L
Introduction: This study explored earthquake preparedness over time—before, during, and 10 years after the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) in New Zealand (NZ; known as Aotearoa in te ao Māori). Method: Surveys of Canterbury residents were conducted in 2009, 2013, and 2021, using variables derived from Community Engagement Theory (CET). The surveys measured earthquake perceptions and beliefs, participation and engagement, and preparedness actions. Results were compared across the three samples. Results: Findings indicate that perceptions and beliefs (e.g., risk perception, outcome expectancy beliefs), and types of preparedness actions taken (e.g., collection of survival items, structural preparedness, community and/or agency relationships), differed over time, depending on people's experiences before, during, and after the CES. For example, during and after the CES, people were more likely to believe that preparing provided a benefit to daily life, but less likely to think it could reduce property damage, perhaps due to people's experiences of disruption and damage during the earthquakes. Discussion: An understanding of such dynamics can assist with the provision and timing of risk and preparedness information. This study highlights the importance of providing applicable and actionable preparedness information, that is relevant to people's experiences, throughout an earthquake sequence. Such information might evolve and change in focus over time depending on risks and needs. Focus could also be given to information that builds peoples beliefs and capacities to undertake preparedness in evolving situations. Understanding preparedness in the context of different experiences and timeframes is useful in helping update models such as the CET, where the dynamics of time might be better incorporated.
Evidence-based guidelines for protective actions and earthquake early warning systems
(Society of Exploration Geophysicists, 2022-01-01) McBride SK; Smith H; Morgoch M; Sumy D; Jenkins M; Peek L; Bostrom A; Baldwin D; Reddy E; De Groot R; Becker J; Johnston D; Wood M
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are becoming increasingly available or are in development throughout the world. As these systems develop, it is important to provide evidence-based recommendations for protective action so people know how to protect themselves when they receive an alert. However, many factors need to be considered when developing contextually relevant and appropriate recommendations. We have reviewed earthquake injury reports, protective action and communication theories, and behavioral research to determine what factors can guide inquiry and decision making when developing protective action guidelines. Factors that emerge from relevant literature include: (1) social, cultural, and environmental context, such as which people are present, what their social roles are, and in what type of building they are located when an earthquake happens, (2) demographic and experiential variables, such as gender and age as well as previous history with earthquakes; and (3) magnitude and intensity that influence the duration and impacts of the earthquake itself. Although we examine data from around the world, we focus largely on evidence-based recommendations for the U.S. system, ShakeAlert, because it provides a timely case study for understanding how people receive and respond to EEW messages. In addition to synthesizing relevant literature, we recommend pathways forward for this interdisciplinary research community that explores EEW and its application around the world. Consistency in collecting and reporting injury data globally may assist in aligning this fragmented literature to develop a richer understanding of how demographic, cultural, seismic, engineering, and technological issues can be addressed to reduce human suffering due to earthquakes.
Fighting misinformation in seismology: Expert opinion on earthquake facts vs. fiction
(Frontiers Media S.A, 2022-12-16) Dryhurst S; Mulder F; Dallo I; Kerr JR; McBride SK; Fallou L; Becker JS
Misinformation carries the potential for immense damage to public understanding of science and for evidence-based decision making at an individual and policy level. Our research explores the following questions within seismology: which claims can be considered misinformation, which are supported by a consensus, and which are still under scientific debate? Consensus and debate are important to quantify, because where levels of scientific consensus on an issue are high, communication of this fact may itself serve as a useful tool in combating misinformation. This is a challenge for earthquake science, where certain theories and facts in seismology are still being established. The present study collates a list of common public statements about earthquakes and provides–to the best of our knowledge–the first elicitation of the opinions of 164 earth scientists on the degree of verity of these statements. The results provide important insights for the state of knowledge in the field, helping identify those areas where consensus messaging may aid in the fight against earthquake related misinformation and areas where there is currently lack of consensus opinion. We highlight the necessity of using clear, accessible, jargon-free statements with specified parameters and precise wording when communicating with the public about earthquakes, as well as of transparency about the uncertainties around some issues in seismology.
Great expectations for earthquake early warnings on the United States West Coast
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022-11-01) Bostrom A; McBride SK; Becker JS; Goltz JD; de Groot R-M; Peek L; Terbush B; Dixon M
In October 2019, California became the first state in the United States to fully activate a public earthquake early warning system—ShakeAlert®—managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The system was subsequently rolled out in March 2021 in Oregon and May 2021 in Washington. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can provide seconds of notice to people and technological systems that shaking is imminent, but their effectiveness depends on recipients’ expectations and actions as well as technical performance. To better understand these dependencies, we surveyed representative samples of adults in California (N = 1219), Oregon (N = 1020), and Washington (N = 1037) in February 2021. Most respondents had experienced earthquakes, but few had lived through violent shaking; most had not followed protective action guidance to Drop, Cover, and Hold On (DCHO) in earthquakes; and most reported no personal or social harm from prior earthquakes. Nevertheless, expectations and perceived usefulness of EEW were high, and higher still for those who expected alerts to be accurate and easy to use, expressed tolerance of missed and erroneous warnings, and expected to be affected by a damaging earthquake in their lifetime. Results suggest opportunities to better align public preferences and expectations with ShakeAlert operations. For example, some respondents preferred lower alerting thresholds than those proposed by government and scientists. Moreover, reported tolerance of warning errors was widespread, but respondents wanted explanations quickly, suggesting a need to further develop post-alert messaging. Findings from this study should be informative for future research on the co-evolution of experiences and expectations with EEW systems.
Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand
(Elsevier Ltd., 2024-10-21) Wein AM; McBride SK; Becker JS; Christophersen A; Doyle EEH; Gerstenberger MC; Potter SH
On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine's Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine's Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast. The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.
Simulating human behavior under earthquake early warning
(Elsevier Ltd, 2025-02-08) Wood M; McBride SK; Zhao X; Baldwin D; Cochran ES; Zhang X; Luco N; Lovreglio R; Cova T
Earthquakes are a rapid-onset hazard where advance planning and learning plays a key role in mitigating injuries and death to individuals. Recent advances in earthquake detection have resulted in the development of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. These systems can provide advance warning to predetermined geographic regions that an earthquake is in progress, which may result in individuals receiving warning seconds before significant shaking is felt at their location. This additional time could allow individuals to take more effective protective actions during the immediate disaster. To demonstrate this, we created an agent-based simulation of a basic apartment that allowed us to randomly and repeatedly simulate an individual receiving and responding to an EEW message. The results of our preliminary simulation show that, in our study environment, earthquake early warning alerts have the potential to allow for sufficient time for individuals to take protective actions.
The communication of volcano information in New Zealand–a narrative review
(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2025-02-13) Das M; Becker JS; Doyle EEH; Charlton D; Clive MA; Krippner J; Vinnell LJ; Miller C; Stewart C; Gabrielsen H; Potter SH; Leonard GS; Johnston DM; Tapuke K; Fournier N; McBride SK
Communication of volcano information is critical for effective volcanic risk management. A variety of information is communicated to inform decisions and guide actions for planning, preparedness, and response. Such information needs to be reliable, and fit-for-purpose across different stages of volcanic activity (quiescence, unrest, short or long-term eruptive stages, and the post-eruptive stage). However, an understanding of communication across these different stages of volcanic activity remains limited. We undertook a narrative review of New Zealand literature to explore what information is communicated about volcanoes, across which stages of activity and by whom. Results highlight that NZ literature only documents certain aspects of volcano information and communication, specifically regarding certain locations, stages of volcanic activity (i.e. quiescence or unrest), or hazards. Literature gaps exist regarding volcano communication during unrest and post-eruptive stages, as well as how volcano information evolves between these phases, and how decision-makers use such information. Additional work would be useful to document existing examples of volcano information for different stages of activity. Further research could help in understanding the information needs of decision-makers during each of these stages to improve information and communication.
The Effects of Earthquake Experience on Intentions to Respond to Earthquake Early Warnings
(Frontiers Media S.A, 2022-07-18) Becker JS; Vinnell LJ; McBride SK; Nakayachi K; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Bostrom A
Warning systems are essential for providing people with information so they can take protective action in response to perils. Systems need to be human-centered, which requires an understanding of the context within which humans operate. Therefore, our research sought to understand the human context for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Aotearoa New Zealand, a location where no comprehensive EEW system existed in 2019 when we did this study. We undertook a survey of people's previous experiences of earthquakes, their perceptions of the usefulness of a hypothetical EEW system, and their intended responses to a potential warning (for example, Drop, Cover, Hold (DCH), staying still, performing safety actions). Results showed little difference in perceived usefulness of an EEW system between those with and without earthquake experience, except for a weak relationship between perceived usefulness and if a respondent's family or friends had previously experienced injury, damage or loss from an earthquake. Previous earthquake experience was, however, associated with various intended responses to a warning. The more direct, or personally relevant a person's experiences were, the more likely they were to intend to take a useful action on receipt of an EEW. Again, the type of experience which showed the largest difference was having had a family member or friend experience injury, damage or loss. Experience of participation in training, exercises or drills did not seem to prompt the correct intended actions for earthquake warnings; however, given the hypothetical nature of the study, it is possible people did not associate their participation in drills, for example, with a potential action that could be taken on receipt of an EEW. Our analysis of regional differences highlighted that intentions to mentally prepare on receipt of a warning were significantly higher for Canterbury region participants, most likely related to strong shaking and subsequent impacts experienced during the 2010–11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Our research reinforces that previous experience can influence earthquake-related perceptions and behaviors, but in different ways depending on the context. Public communication and interventions for EEW could take into consideration different levels and types of experiences of the audience for greater success in response.
When the earth doesn't stop shaking: How experiences over time influenced information needs, communication, and interpretation of aftershock information during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand
(Elsevier, 1/03/2019) Becker JS; Potter SH; McBride SK; Wein A; Doyle EEH; Paton D
© 2018 The Authors The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) began with the Darfield earthquake on 4 September 2010. Continual large and small aftershocks since that time have meant communities have cycled through repeated periods of impact, response and recovery. Scientific communication about aftershocks during such a prolonged sequence has faced distinct challenges. We conducted research to better understand aftershock information needs for agencies and the public, and how people interpreted and responded to such information. We found that a wide range of information was needed from basic facts about aftershocks through to more technical information, and in different formats (e.g. maps, tables, graphs, text, analogies). Information needs also evolved throughout the sequence, and differed depending on people's roles and experiences, and the phase of impact, response and recovery communities were in. Interpretation of aftershock information was influenced by a variety of factors including how understandable and relevant the information was, whether people had prior knowledge or experience of aftershocks, whether the information was personalised or contextualised, emotions and feelings, credibility and trust, and external influences. Given that such a diversity of evolving information is required, it is imperative that geoscientists strategize how to provide such information before a significant earthquake occurs.

Browsing by Author "McBride SK"

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