Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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Author: search.filters.author.Baker MGSubject: search.filters.subject.COVID-19

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    An evaluation of the population uptake and contact tracer utilisation of the Covid-19 Bluetooth Exposure Notification Framework in New Zealand
    (Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Public Health Association of Australia, 2024-11-05) Chambers T; Anglemyer A; Chen A; Atkinson J; Elers P; Baker MG
    Objective: Our primary research objective was to assess the population uptake and contact tracer utilisation of the Bluetooth function of the New Zealand Covid Tracer App (NZCTA) throughout the pandemic. Methods: We adopted a retrospective cohort study design using all diagnosed COVID-19 community cases from December 12, 2020 to February 16, 2022. Results: At its height, more than 60 % of the eligible population had the Bluetooth function of NZCTA activated. However, only an estimated 2.2 % of the population was able to fully participate. Cases managed by the national case investigation service were 17 times (aRR 17.54, 95%CI: 13.02-23.90) and 9 times (aRR 9.27, 95%CI: 6.91, 12.76) more likely to generate a Bluetooth token than cases managed by local public health units during the Delta and Omicron periods, respectively. Conclusions: The Bluetooth functionality of the NZCTA likely had a low impact on the pandemic response in NZ despite its exceptionally high levels of public uptake. The primary reason for the lack of impact was the low utilisation by contact tracers. Implications for public health: The results highlight the need for greater consultation and collaboration with the public health sector during the development and implementation of digital contact tracing tools.
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    COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2021-10) Nguyen T; Adnan M; Nguyen BP; de Ligt J; Geoghegan JL; Dean R; Jefferies S; Baker MG; Seah WKG; Sporle AA; French NP; Murdoch DR; Welch D; Simpson CR
    Background: COVID-19 elimination measures, including border closures have been applied in New Zealand. We have modelled the potential effect of vaccination programmes for opening borders. Methods: We used a deterministic age-stratified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model. We minimised spread by varying the age-stratified vaccine allocation to find the minimum herd immunity requirements (the effective reproduction number Reff<1 with closed borders) under various vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios and R0 values. We ran two-year open-border simulations for two vaccine strategies: minimising Reff and targeting high-risk groups. Findings: Targeting of high-risk groups will result in lower hospitalisations and deaths in most scenarios. Reaching the herd immunity threshold (HIT) with a vaccine of 90% VE against disease and 80% VE against infection requires at least 86•5% total population uptake for R0=4•5 (with high vaccination coverage for 30-49-year-olds) and 98•1% uptake for R0=6. In a two-year open-border scenario with 10 overseas cases daily and 90% total population vaccine uptake (including 0-15 year olds) with the same vaccine, the strategy of targeting high-risk groups is close to achieving HIT, with an estimated 11,400 total hospitalisations (peak 324 active and 36 new daily cases in hospitals), and 1,030 total deaths. Interpretation: Targeting high-risk groups for vaccination will result in fewer hospitalisations and deaths with open borders compared to targeting reduced transmission. With a highly effective vaccine and a high total uptake, opening borders will result in increasing cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Other public health and social measures will still be required as part of an effective pandemic response. Funding: This project was funded by the Health Research Council [20/1018]. Research in context.
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    Factors influencing individual ability to follow physical distancing recommendations in Aotearoa New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population survey
    (Taylor and Francis Group, 2021-02-14) Gray L; Rose SB; Stanley J; Zhang J; Tassell-Matamua N; Puloka V; Kvalsvig A; Wiles S; Murton SA; Johnston DM; Becker JS; MacDonald C; Baker MG
    Physical distancing (also commonly known as social distancing) is an important non-pharmaceutical strategy to minimise the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus. A range of restrictions to promote physical distancing form a key part of the Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) all-of-government response to the global COVID-19 pandemic. The effectiveness of physical distancing strategies is highly dependent on buy-in and the actions of individuals, households and communities. This NZ population survey was conducted to identify people’s views on the effectiveness of various strategies, and factors impacting on their capacity to follow physical distancing requirements during Alert Levels 4, 3, and 2 (April 24th–June 8th 2020). The majority of the 2407 participants were supportive of the public health measures implemented to promote physical distancing across Alert Levels. Few substantial differences were observed in relation to demographic characteristics, suggesting high overall levels of understanding and willingness to adhere to distancing requirements. Around half of the participants reported difficulties practicing physical distancing when in public. Reasons included being an essential worker and challenges related to the behaviour of others. These survey findings highlight the willingness of NZ’s population to play their part in eliminating COVID-19 transmission, and the way in which behavioural change was rapidly adopted in line with government requirements.