Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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Author: search.filters.author.Becker JHas files: Yes

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    Exploring communication practices that promote community participation and collective action for reducing disaster risks in New Zealand
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of ODI Global, 2025-10-01) Das M; Becker J; Doyle EEH
    Emergency management agencies in New Zealand are increasingly engaging with communities to promote civic participation and collective action for reducing disaster risks. Utilising a mixed-methods approach, this paper explores the communication practices that support these efforts. The qualitative findings reveal that emergency management agencies, different government organisations, community-based groups, and local people play a key role in the process. Communicative actions supporting people's participation include scoping and relationship-building activities, awareness-raising events, advertisements and promotions, and community conversations. Based on these findings and guided by communication infrastructure theory, a conceptual map of the communication networks, resources, and processes adopted to promote people's participation and collective action is presented here. The survey results indicate that emergency management agencies are the main communicators promoting people's participation. Interpersonal influence and community conversations are most effective in terms of involving new people. Both the theoretical and practical implications of the study's findings are discussed in this paper.
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    ‘One big team working together’ - Shifting narratives to encourage civic participation and collective action in disaster preparedness
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2025-02-15) Das M; Becker J; Doyle EEH
    Disaster risks cannot be reduced by individual efforts alone and necessitate community participation and collective action. However, communicating and encouraging collective action is difficult. Existing studies show that stories and narratives are useful to convey complex less-understood phenomena, like disasters, in a comprehendible and relatable manner. As such, this paper explores existing disaster narratives and aims to understand how they encourage civic participation and collective action for reducing disaster risks. The findings show that the framing of disasters in mass media narratives are unlikely to encourage collective action as they do not emphasize citizen's agency and efficacy in reducing disaster risks. However, in the narratives shared at the local level between emergency management agencies and community members, there is currently a shift towards emphasizing community agency, efficacy, and responsibilities in reducing disaster risks. Four dominant themes are identified in these narratives: reframing the concept of heroes, promoting connection and care, emphasizing collective efficacy and collective responsibility. While the narratives are beneficial, they also cause some tensions, such as, confusion arising from lingering response-centric narratives; frustration around the collective responsibility narratives; and resistance to the current narratives as they are perceived as attempts by emergency management agencies to transfer emergency management responsibilities to people. The implications of the findings and the future directions are presented.
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    Fostering civic participation and collective actions for disaster risk reduction: Insights from Aotearoa New Zealand case studies
    (Elsevier Ltd., 2024-11-03) Das M; Becker J; Doyle EEH
    This paper explores how community members collaborate with emergency management organizations in the pre-disaster stage and engage in collective actions for reducing disaster risks in their communities. Utilizing four qualitative case studies from New Zealand, we examined how local groups interested in reducing community level disaster risks form, the nature of their collective actions and collaboration with emergency management organizations, their facilitators and barriers and the outcomes of the processes. The findings suggest that people's involvement, collaboration, and collective action in the pre-disaster stage entails participating in programmes administered by emergency management organizations through diverse community groups, informal emergency response teams, and specialized volunteer groups. The two primary goals are to have a group of people ready to provide immediate support in an event by maintaining community response teams and making prior arrangements that support people to spontaneously volunteer in an emergency, through community emergency hub approach. These groups engage in tasks such as creating community response plans, maintaining resources, and fostering communication and social capital. The factors facilitating these efforts include hazard awareness, community conversations, institutional support and active DRR organizations, clear objectives, skilled facilitators, and ensuring community solutions are supported. However, currently, community involvement in the pre-disaster stage is narrowly focused on improving response outcomes, lacking a broader perspective of addressing developmental and environmental issues that create risks. They are also rooted in the idea of a solidaristic community and rely on social capital. We discuss the implications of the current practices and the way forward.
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    Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions
    (American Geophysical Union, 2024-09-01) Mizrahi L; Dallo I; van der Elst NJ; Christophersen A; Spassiani I; Werner MJ; Iturrieta P; Bayona J; Iervolino I; Schneider M; Page MT; Zhuang J; Herrmann M; Michael AJ; Falcone G; Marzocchi W; Rhoades D; Gerstenberger M; Gulia L; Schorlemmer D; Becker J; Han M; Kuratle L; Marti M; Wiemer S
    While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.
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    Creating a ‘planning emergency levels of service’ framework – a silver bullet, or something useful for target practice?
    (Elsevier B.V., 2023-06-01) Mowll R; Becker J; Wotherspoon L; Stewart C; Johnston D; Neely D
    ‘Planning Emergency Levels of Service’ (PELOS) are service delivery goals for infrastructure providers during and after an emergency event. These goals could be delivered through the existing infrastructure (e.g., pipes, lines, cables), or through other means (trucked water or the provision of generators). This paper describes how an operationalised framework of PELOS for the Wellington region, New Zealand was created, alongside the key stakeholders. We undertook interviews and workshops with critical infrastructure entities to create the framework. Through this process we found five themes that informed the context and development of the PELOS framework: interdependencies between critical infrastructure, the need to consider the vulnerabilities of some community members, emergency planning considerations, stakeholders’ willingness to collaborate on this research/project and the flexibility/adaptability of the delivery of infrastructure services following a major event. These themes are all explored in this paper. This research finds that the understanding of the hazardscape and potential outages from hazards is critical and that co-ordination between key stakeholders is essential to create such a framework. This paper may be used to inform the production of PELOS frameworks in other localities.
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    Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
    (Elsevier, 2023-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill S; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison S; Bostrom A; Becker J
    The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.
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    Evidence-based guidelines for protective actions and earthquake early warning systems
    (Society of Exploration Geophysicists, 2022-01-01) McBride SK; Smith H; Morgoch M; Sumy D; Jenkins M; Peek L; Bostrom A; Baldwin D; Reddy E; De Groot R; Becker J; Johnston D; Wood M
    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are becoming increasingly available or are in development throughout the world. As these systems develop, it is important to provide evidence-based recommendations for protective action so people know how to protect themselves when they receive an alert. However, many factors need to be considered when developing contextually relevant and appropriate recommendations. We have reviewed earthquake injury reports, protective action and communication theories, and behavioral research to determine what factors can guide inquiry and decision making when developing protective action guidelines. Factors that emerge from relevant literature include: (1) social, cultural, and environmental context, such as which people are present, what their social roles are, and in what type of building they are located when an earthquake happens, (2) demographic and experiential variables, such as gender and age as well as previous history with earthquakes; and (3) magnitude and intensity that influence the duration and impacts of the earthquake itself. Although we examine data from around the world, we focus largely on evidence-based recommendations for the U.S. system, ShakeAlert, because it provides a timely case study for understanding how people receive and respond to EEW messages. In addition to synthesizing relevant literature, we recommend pathways forward for this interdisciplinary research community that explores EEW and its application around the world. Consistency in collecting and reporting injury data globally may assist in aligning this fragmented literature to develop a richer understanding of how demographic, cultural, seismic, engineering, and technological issues can be addressed to reduce human suffering due to earthquakes.