Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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Author: search.filters.author.Kilic I

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    The Language of Uncertainty: Reading Türkiye's Economic Pulse Through Geopolitical Fog
    (John Wiley and Sons Limited, 2025-09-10) Kilic I; Balli F
    Geopolitical uncertainty is an increasing concern for investors, entrepreneurs, and researchers. Traditional methods of measuring uncertainty often fall short, whereas Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven Natural Language Processing (NLP) offers more accurate and competitive options. In this study, we develop a Geopolitical Country-Specific Uncertainty (GCSU) index for Türkiye by applying the economic policy uncertainty index methodology. Since geopolitical uncertainty involves Knightian uncertainty—which cannot be quantified with probabilities in advance—our approach measures it by analysing the frequency of economy-, policy-, and uncertainty-related terms in Turkish-language newspapers. Unlike existing indexes for Türkiye, such as the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) and the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), which rely on English-language sources, our localised method provides a more precise measure of country-specific uncertainty. Our findings show that an unexpected increase in geopolitical uncertainty leads to declines in employment, industrial production, trade, consumer confidence, and stock prices, while oil prices and inflation rise in response. However, these results may not be observed when uncertainty is measured using English sources (e.g., through the index from the GPR-Türkiye). These insights highlight the importance for policymakers to consider geopolitical uncertainty in their economic planning and suggest directions for further research into measuring uncertainty with local language sources.
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    Demographic-governance factors shaping cryptocurrency holding behavior
    (Elsevier B.V., 2025-11) Dang THN; Balli F; Balli HO; Kilic I
    Employing cross-sectional data of 142 countries worldwide, this paper examines the macroeconomic factors in shaping cryptocurrency adoption. We find that the aggregate impact of inflation volatility on crypto adoption is dependent on the level of corruption control in higher-income countries. The control of corruption appears to discourage cryptocurrency adoption, emphasizing the role of institutional trust in financial choices. We also find that higher emigrant ratios in non-high-income and lower-income countries are associated with increased cryptocurrency usage, which suggests that migrants tend to use cryptocurrencies for faster, cheaper remittances compared to traditional services. Last, we find that internet penetration plays a key role in crypto adoption, particularly in higher-income countries with advanced digital infrastructure.
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    Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye
    (Springer Nature, 2024-06-12) Kilic I; Balli F
    In this paper, a new measure for uncertainty that affects the economy is proposed, constructed, and applied to an emerging economy, Türkiye. We have constructed an index of economic country-specific uncertainty (ECSU) that is in line with the methodology used in constructing economic policy uncertainty indexes. As the economic uncertainty is of the Knightian type, the essence of measuring it lies in counting the frequency of joint appearances of words related to economics and uncertainty in Turkish-language newspapers. The uncertainty index constructed using local language sources- Turkish performs significantly better in measuring country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye. However, some indexes use English language sources to measure uncertainty in Türkiye- did not make them country-specific. The ECSU was tested by evaluating the dynamic real effects of the uncertainty. This evaluation was performed by the analysis of impulse responses from uncertainty to some economic variables in a vector autoregressive model describing the economy of Türkiye. We find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty in the Turkish-language press is related to decreases in industrial production, employment, and trade. If the uncertainty measure is based on the articles from the English-language press only, no such relationship can be confirmed. We also find that an increase in uncertainty leads to increase in inflation and stock and oil prices.