Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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    Gaps in environmental and social evidence base are holding back strategic action on our national food system
    (Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2025-07-03) Smith NW; McDowell RW; Smith C; Foster M; Eason C; Stephens M; McNabb WC
    While there is broad agreement on the challenges facing the Aotearoa New Zealand food system now and in the near future, there is less agreement on the action to be taken. Poor agreement is fuelled by gaps in both our scientific understanding of the food system and data to support our decision making, particularly in the environmental and social spaces. Filling these gaps and being transparent about scientific confidence in future predictions will strengthen the evidence base for action.
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    Reassessing the sustainability promise of cultured meat: a critical review with new data perspectives
    (Taylor and Francis Group, 2025-02-21) Tavan M; Smith NW; McNabb WC; Wood P
    There are currently over 170 companies in the field of cultured meat (CM) which have attracted over US$3 Billion in investments since 2019. The CM industry owes much of this success to the many claims around environmental benefits and alleviating animal welfare concerns, while being equally nutritious and as acceptable as conventional meat. This review aims to provide a much needed discussion on the latest research findings concerning the nutritional and environmental sustainability of CM and provide an evidence-based discussion around some of the challenges that the industry faces today. Recent developments in the field have revealed that some of the sustainability claims of the CM industry are overly ambitious and not supported by evidence. Environmental assessments have revealed that CM production is highly energy intensive and its environmental footprint can only be improved if renewable energy sources are used. In terms of nutritional quality of CM, there are many unknowns and gaps in the knowledge that require investigation.
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    Analysis of global nutrient gaps and their potential to be closed through redistribution and increased supply
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-08-09) Fletcher AJ; Lozano R; McNabb WC; Van Der Wielen N
    Global food systems are crucial for sustaining life on Earth. Although estimates suggest that the current production system can provide enough food and nutrients for everyone, equitable distribution remains challenging. Understanding global nutrient distribution is vital for addressing disparities and creating effective solutions for the present and future. This study analyzes global nutrient supply changes to address inadequacies in certain populations using the existing DELTA Model®, which uses aggregates of global food production to estimate nutrient adequacy. By examining the 2020 global food commodity and nutrient distribution, we project future food production in 2050 needs to ensure global adequate nutrition. Our findings reveal that while some nutrients appear to be adequately supplied on a global scale, many countries face national insufficiencies (% supply below the population reference intake) in essential vitamins and minerals, such as vitamins A, B12, B2, potassium, and iron. Closing these gaps will require significant increases in nutrient supply. For example, despite global protein supply surpassing basic needs for the 2050 population, significant shortages persist in many countries due to distribution variations. A 1% increase in global protein supply, specifically targeting countries with insufficiencies, could address the observed 2020 gaps. However, without consumption pattern changes, a 26% increase in global protein production is required by 2050 due to population growth. In this study, a methodology was developed, applying multi-decade linear convergence to sufficiency values at the country level. This approach facilitates a more realistic assessment of future needs within global food system models, such as the DELTA Model®, transitioning from idealized production scenarios to realistic projections. In summary, our study emphasizes understanding global nutrient distribution and adjusting minimum global nutrient supply targets to tackle country-level inequality. Incorporating these insights into global food balance models can improve projections and guide policy decisions for sustainable, healthy diets worldwide.
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    Estimating cropland requirements for global food system scenario modeling
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-12-16) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Millard P; Hill JP; McNabb WC; Ridoutt BG
    Introduction: The production of plant crops is foundational to the global food system. With the need for this system to become more sustainable while feeding an increasing global population, tools to investigate future food system scenarios can be useful to aid decision making, but are often limited to a calorie- or protein-centric view of human nutrition. Methods: Here, a mathematical model for forecasting the future cropland requirement to produce a given quantity of crop mass is presented in conjunction with the DELTA Model®: an existing food system scenario model calculating global availability of 29 nutrients against human requirements. The model uses national crop yield data to assign yield metrics for 137 crops. Results: The crops with the greatest variation between high and low yielding production were specific nuts, fruits, and vegetables of minor significance to global nutrient availability. The nut crop group showed the greatest overall yield variation between countries, and thus the greatest uncertainty when forecasting the cropland requirement for future increases in production. Sugar crops showed the least overall yield variation. The greatest potential for increasing global food production by improving poor yielding production was found for the most widely grown crops: maize, wheat, and rice, which were also demonstrated to be of high nutritional significance. Discussion: The combined cropland and nutrient availability model allowed the contribution of plant production to global nutrition to be quantified, and the cropland requirement of future food production scenarios to be estimated. The unified cropland estimation and nutrient availability model presented here is an intuitive and broadly applicable tool for use in global food system scenario modeling. It should benefit future research and policy making by demonstrating the implications for human nutrition of changes to crop production, and conversely the implications for cropland requirement of food production scenarios aimed at improving nutrition.
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    Use of the DELTA Model to Understand the Food System and Global Nutrition
    (Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society for Nutrition, 2021-10) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Dave LA; Hill JP; McNabb WC
    BACKGROUND: Increasing attention is being directed at the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of the global food system. However, a key aspect of a sustainable food system should be its ability to deliver nutrition to the global population. Quantifying nutrient adequacy with current tools is challenging. OBJECTIVE: To produce a computational model illustrating the nutrient adequacy of current and proposed global food systems. METHODS: The DELTA Model was constructed using global food commodity balance sheet data, alongside demographic and nutrient requirement data from UN and European Food Safety Authority sources. It also includes nutrient bioavailability considerations for protein, the indispensable amino acids, iron, and zinc, sourced from scientific literature. RESULTS: The DELTA Model calculates global per capita nutrient availability under conditions of equal distribution and identifies areas of nutrient deficiency for various food system scenarios. Modeling the 2018 global food system showed that it supplied insufficient calcium (64% of demographically weighted target intake) and vitamin E (69%), despite supplying sufficient macronutrients. Several future scenarios were modeled, including variations in waste; scaling up current food production for the 2030 global population; plant-based food production systems; and removing sugar crops from the global food system. Each of these scenarios fell short of meeting requirements for multiple nutrients. These results emphasize the need for a balanced approach in the design of future food systems. CONCLUSIONS: Nutrient adequacy must be at the forefront of the sustainable food system debate. The DELTA Model was designed for both experts and nonexperts to inform this debate as to what may be possible, practical, and optimal for our food system. The model results strongly suggest that both plant and animal foods are necessary to achieve global nutrition. The model is freely available for public use so that anyone can explore current and simulated global food systems.
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    Alternative protein-based foods must contribute to micronutrient adequacy
    (Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2024-01-29) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; McNabb WC
    Sustainable diets must consider health, economic, environmental, and social outcomes. The development and production of alternative protein foods should also make these considerations. We examined the nutritional role of these foods, with New Zealand (NZ) as a case study. We used the DELTA Model® to assess 2020 NZ nutrient supply. We then simulated the substitution of 50% of meat supply (by mass) with various plant protein sources (soy, peas, beans, and mushroom), and observed the impact on nutrient supply. NZ had an undersupply of calcium (38%), vitamin E (34% deficit), dietary fibre (20%), potassium (13%), and vitamin C (10%) compared to population requirements. Contrastingly, there was sufficient protein and amino acid supply for an additional 2.4 million people. Halving of meat supply resulted in decreased availability for potassium (21% deficit), zinc (17%), folate (10%), and iron (9%). Soy proved the best nutritional replacement for meat, with reduced deficits for all undersupplied nutrients compared to 2020. Replacement with other modelled protein sources resulted in greater nutrient deficits. The nutritional implications beyond protein must be considered when making dietary substitutions. There are clear public health reasons to fortify alternative proteins with both the nutrients lost in substitution and those already in deficit.