Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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Author: search.filters.author.Muylaert RLSubject: search.filters.subject.Brazil

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    Hantavirus Expansion Trends in Natural Host Populations in Brazil.
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2024-07-17) Mello JHF; Muylaert RL; Grelle CEV; Kemenesi G; Kurucz K
    Hantaviruses are zoonotic agents responsible for causing Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) in the Americas, with Brazil ranking first in number of confirmed HCPS cases in South America. In this study, we simulate the monthly spread of highly lethal hantavirus in natural hosts by conjugating a Kermack-McCormick SIR model with a cellular automata model (CA), therefore simultaneously evaluating both in-cell and between-cell infection dynamics in host populations, using recently compiled data on main host species abundances and confirmed deaths by hantavirus infection. For both host species, our models predict an increase in the area of infection, with 22 municipalities where no cases have been confirmed to date expected to have at least one case in the next decade, and a reduction in infection in 11 municipalities. Our findings support existing research and reveal new areas where hantavirus is likely to spread within recognized epicenters. Highlighting spatial-temporal trends and potential expansion, we emphasize the increased risk due to pervasive habitat fragmentation and agricultural expansion. Consistent prevention efforts and One Health actions are crucial, especially in newly identified high-risk municipalities.
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    Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity.
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2023-08-01) Gonzalez Daza W; Muylaert RL; Sobral-Souza T; Lemes Landeiro V; Oren E; Blanco G
    Malaria is a prevalent disease in several tropical and subtropical regions, including Brazil, where it remains a significant public health concern. Even though there have been substantial efforts to decrease the number of cases, the reoccurrence of epidemics in regions that have been free of cases for many years presents a significant challenge. Due to the multifaceted factors that influence the spread of malaria, influencing malaria risk factors were analyzed through regional outbreak cluster analysis and spatio-temporal models in the Brazilian Amazon, incorporating climate, land use/cover interactions, species richness, and number of endemic birds and amphibians. Results showed that high amphibian and bird richness and endemism correlated with a reduction in malaria risk. The presence of forest had a risk-increasing effect, but it depended on its juxtaposition with anthropic land uses. Biodiversity and landscape composition, rather than forest formation presence alone, modulated malaria risk in the period. Areas with low endemic species diversity and high human activity, predominantly anthropogenic landscapes, posed high malaria risk. This study underscores the importance of considering the broader ecological context in malaria control efforts.
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    The risk of vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi remains high in the State of Paraná.
    (Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde, 2024-06-10) Trovo JVS; Weber-Lima MM; Prado-Costa B; Iunklaus GF; Andrade AJ; Sobral-Souza T; Muylaert RL; Alvarenga LM; Toledo MJO
    BACKGROUND: Monitoring and analysing the infection rates of the vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, that causes Chagas disease, helps assess the risk of transmission. OBJECTIVES: A study was carried out on triatomine in the State of Paraná, Brazil, between 2012 and 2021 and a comparison was made with a previous study. This was done to assess the risk of disease transmission. METHODS: Ecological niche models based on climate and landscape variables were developed to predict habitat suitability for the vectors as a proxy for risk of occurrence. FINDINGS: A total of 1,750 specimens of triatomines were recorded, of which six species were identified. The overall infection rate was 22.7%. The areas with the highest risk transmission of T. cruzi are consistent with previous predictions in municipalities. New data shows that climate models are more accurate than landscape models. This is likely because climate suitability was higher in the previous period. MAIN CONCLUSION: Regardless of uneven sampling and potential biases, risk remains high due to the wide presence of infected vectors and high environmental suitability for vector species throughout the state and, therefore, improvements in public policies aimed at wide dissemination of knowledge about the disease are recommended to ensure the State remains free of Chagas disease.