Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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Author: search.filters.author.Subharat SSubject: search.filters.subject.Southeast Asia

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    Probability of freedom from foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype Asia 1 in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia
    (Elsevier B V, 2025-11-01) Wada M; Han J-H; Purevsuren B; Rinzin K; Sutar A; Abila R; Subharat S
    Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotype Asia 1 has not been reported in Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia between 2018 and 2024, despite the endemicity of FMD in this region and the continued circulation of serotype Asia 1 in South Asia. While vaccines against Asia 1 are still occasionally used in this region, it is unknown whether the absence of reports indicates true disease freedom or surveillance gaps. This study aimed to estimate the sensitivity of existing passive surveillance systems, and the probability of regional freedom from serotype Asia 1 across eight countries using the scenario tree approach. Two stochastic scenario tree models were developed to estimate surveillance sensitivity for FMD (any serotypes) and serotype Asia 1 specifically. Country-specific input parameters were derived from a questionnaire survey of in-country experts on FMD vaccination practices, smallholders’ behaviour, sampling protocols and diagnostic laboratory capacity. Additionally, 2010 – 2022 data on FMD clinical samples submitted and confirmed Asia 1 cases were obtained from the World Reference Laboratory for FMD. Under a design annual incidence rate of 10 % at the village level and 20 % at the animal level, estimated surveillance sensitivity for FMD ranged from 100.0 % in Mongolia and 95.9 % in China to 1.7 % in Cambodia and < 0.1 % in Myanmar. Using the effective design incidence rate with a median of 0.02 – 0.07 % at the village level and 20 % at the animal level, the probability of detecting Asia 1 was estimated to be 0.0 – 6.7 % per country and 14.5 % for the region. The estimated probability of regional freedom from Asia 1 was 53.9 % after the first year without reporting. Over years of no reporting, this probability would increase, only if an annual risk of introduction remained below 6 %. The results were most sensitive to parameters related to sampling intensity and smallholders’ behaviour, particularly in countries with high surveillance sensitivity, such as Mongolia and China. Our findings highlight the low sensitivity of passive surveillance in the region, suggesting that serotype Asia 1 may have remained undetected under the current surveillance efforts. Strengthening data collection and continued efforts in increasing surveillance intensity are essential to improving confidence in the regional freedom from serotype Asia 1.
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    Field epidemiology capacity of the national veterinary services of Lao PDR: An online survey.
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 2023-03-21) Subharat S; Meunsene D; Putthana V; Tiwari H; Firestone SM; Tavornpanich S
    INTRODUCTION: Capacity in veterinary epidemiology is critical to detect, respond and control infectious diseases. Laos veterinary service is limited by having only a small number of veterinarians who graduated from overseas. Animal science graduates support the majority of the Laos veterinary services. The veterinary program was established in 2009 at the National University of Laos. We aimed to understand the national veterinary epidemiology capacity and identify gaps and training needs. METHOD: A cross-sectional online study was conducted in 2021 targeting central (DLF), provincial (PAFO) and district (DAFO) government animal health officers and veterinary/animal science academics (n = 332). The questionnaire addressed skills, experiences and perceived training needs in outbreak investigation, disease surveillance, data management and analysis, epidemiological surveys, One Health, leadership and communication and biosecurity. A descriptive analysis was performed and associations between demographic factors and epidemiological skills were examined. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In total, 205 respondents completed the questionnaire (61.8% response rate). Respondents reported low or no skills and experience in data management and analysis, epidemiological surveys and One Health. In contrast, higher but limited skills and experiences were reported in outbreak investigation, disease surveillance and biosecurity. Previous epidemiology training was primarily associated with stronger experiences in veterinary epidemiology competencies, followed by respondents that had completed a veterinary degree, highlighting the value of the currently available epidemiology training and veterinary-trained personnel in Lao PDR. This study could help inform the Laos government in its policy planning for field veterinary epidemiology capacity and future training.