Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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Author: search.filters.author.Wild AJSubject: search.filters.subject.Volcanic ashfall

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    A new volcanic multi-hazard impact model for water supply systems: Application at Taranaki Mounga, Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Elsevier B.V., 2024-12-24) Porter H; Wilson TM; Weir A; Stewart C; Craig HM; Wild AJ; Paulik R; Fairclough R; Buzzella M
    Water supply systems provide an essential service for society and are highly vulnerable to damage and disruption during volcanic eruptions. Impacts sustained by water supply systems during volcanic eruptions have resulted in prolonged and repeated supply outages. Previous approaches to assessing volcanic impacts to water supply systems have been relatively simplistic, based on hazard intensity thresholds, and only considering direct damage. There is a need for water supply risk assessment approaches informed by vulnerability models that consider the pivotal role of system design and indirect impacts; such as supply and demand fluctuations, personnel shortages, and disruptions to interdependent infrastructure networks. We present a whole-of-system volcanic vulnerability model and impact assessment framework for water supply systems that can be used to estimate system-wide impacts during future volcanic eruptions. This model is developed in collaboration with volcanic risk researchers and water supply engineers in Aotearoa New Zealand and applied to a case study in the Taranaki region for a long-duration and multi-hazard eruption scenario from the active stratovolcano Taranaki Mounga. The model provides an assessment of the functionality of water supply systems affected directly and indirectly by the scenario eruption, interdependent critical infrastructure services, and associated emergency management actions (e.g., evacuations). This scenario, and its modelled impacts, allows practitioners to explore potential mitigation and emergency response options. This framework can be applied in other volcanic contexts to assess impacts on water supplies from future eruptions, highlight key systemic vulnerabilities, and provide a basis for the prioritisation and implementation of risk management strategies.
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    Agriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard: fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application
    (Volcanica, 2021-12-31) Craig HM; Wilson TM; Magill C; Stewart C; Wild AJ
    Developing approaches to assess the impact of tephra fall on agricultural and forestry systems is essential for informing effective disaster risk management strategies. Fragility functions are commonly used as the vulnerability model within a loss assessment framework and represent the relationship between a given hazard intensity measure (HIM; e.g. tephra thickness) and the probability of impacts occurring. Impacts are represented using an impact state (IS), which categorises qualitative and quantitative statements into a numeric scale. This study presents IS schemes for pastoral, horticultural, and forestry systems, and a suite of fragility functions estimating the probability of each IS occurring for 13 sub-sectors. Temporal vulnerability is accounted for by a ‘temporality/seasonality coefficient,’ and a ‘fluoride toxicity coefficient’ is included to incorporate the increased vulnerability of pastoral farms when tephra is high in leachable fluoride. The fragility functions are then used to demonstrate a deterministic impact assessment with current New Zealand exposure.