Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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A Hormetic Approach to the Value-Loading Problem: Preventing the Paperclip Apocalypse
(Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd, 2025-10-06) Henry NIN; Pedersen M; Williams M; Martin JLB; Donkin L
The value-loading problem is a major obstacle to creating Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems that align with human values and preferences. Central to this problem is the establishment of safe limits for repeatable AI behaviors. We introduce hormetic alignment, a paradigm to regulate the behavioral patterns of AI, grounded in the concept of hormesis, where low frequencies or repetitions of a behavior have beneficial effects, while high frequencies or repetitions are harmful. By modeling behaviors as allostatic opponent processes, we can use either Behavioral Frequency Response Analysis (BFRA) or Behavioral Count Response Analysis (BCRA) to quantify the safe and optimal limits of repeatable behaviors. We demonstrate how hormetic alignment solves the ‘paperclip maximizer’ scenario, a thought experiment where an unregulated AI tasked with making paperclips could end up converting all matter in the universe into paperclips. Our approach may be used to help create an evolving database of ‘values’ based on the hedonic calculus of repeatable behaviors with decreasing marginal utility. Hormetic alignment offers a principled solution to the value-loading problem for repeatable behaviors, augmenting current techniques by adding temporal constraints that reflect the diminishing returns of repeated actions. It further supports weak-to-strong generalization – using weaker models to supervise stronger ones – by providing a scalable value system that enables AI to learn and respect safe behavioral bounds. This paradigm opens new research avenues for developing computational value systems that govern not only single actions but the frequency and count of repeatable behaviors.
Communicating natural hazards science advice: Understanding scientists', decision-makers’, and the public's perceptions of the scientific process
(Elsevier B.V., 2025-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill SR; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison SE; Bostrom A; Becker JS
How individuals perceive scientific processes impacts their interpretation of, trust in, and use of, science advice particularly when managing uncertain natural hazard risk. We explored a) how diverse stakeholders understand how science of natural hazards is produced, and b) how this relates to their ontological, epistemological, and philosophical views of science. Using inductive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 31 participants involved in the management of natural hazards in Aotearoa New Zealand (including non-scientists), we produced three leading themes describing their views: 1) ‘Science is a way of seeing the world’; 2) ‘Science has limitations’; and 3) ‘Knowledge evolves’. Across Scientist, non-Scientist, and Lay public groups, there was broad agreement on the fundamental steps of the scientific process, aligning mostly with a hypothetico-deductive process. However, many discussed how others may have different perspectives of scientific approaches, truth, and reality. These are informed by training, disciplinary biases, cultural practices, and personal experience of hazards and associated science. We propose that individuals who recognise different worldviews and philosophies of science will experience higher levels of communication and cognitive uncertainty, which encourages information seeking behaviour and can improve communication efficacy, particularly during high pressure events. We conclude with three communication lessons: 1) be transparent about the processes and causes of change in natural hazards science advice; 2) communicate as both trusted individuals as well as through collective Science Advisory Group (SAG) systems; and 3) provide accessible structures and language to help lay people articulate scientific processes they often intuitively understand, rather than just simplifying information.
How did the depression and anxiety levels of older New Zealanders change during the COVID-19 pandemic?
(Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group, 2024-10-10) McLean T; Williams M; Stephens C
There has been widespread concern about the mental health impact of the global COVID-19 outbreak. Fears have been raised that depression and anxiety among older people may have increased in the pandemic, and that adverse health behaviours, such as increased alcohol use and decreased physical activity, may have contributed to the mental health decline. This study aimed to examine changes in depression, anxiety, alcohol use and physical activity scores of people aged 55 and older in New Zealand over the initial months of the pandemic. The sample included 3,171 people who responded to wave 7 (August-November 2018) and wave 8 (June-September 2020) of the Health, Work and Retirement Study. Analyses were carried out using paired t tests and multilevel mediation modelling. There was no evidence of significant changes in depression or anxiety. Alcohol use and physical activity were shown to decrease significantly, albeit to a small degree, and there was evidence of an indirect effect of time on depression via physical activity. These findings suggest a general resilience among older people 3 to 6 months into the pandemic. However, increased attention should be paid to promoting physical exercise among older people, as a means of decreasing depression risk.
A cross-cultural test of competing hypotheses about system justification using data from 42 nations
(Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Society of Political Psychology., 2024-09-25) Valdes EA; Liu JH; Williams M; Carr SC
System justification theory (SJT) is a thriving field of research, wherein the primary questions revolve around why individuals and groups are motivated to see the systems they depend on as just, fair, and legitimate. This article seeks to answer how accurate the postulates of SJT are when compared to competing self-interest claims of social identity and social dominance theory. We addressed the ongoing debates among proponents of each theory by identifying who, when, and why individuals decide to system-justify. We used data comprised of 24,009 participants nested within 42 countries. Multilevel models largely supported the competing claims of social dominance and social identity theories over SJT. The most robust findings were: (1) greater objective socioeconomic status (SES) was associated with greater system justification; (2) the consistent positive relationship between subjective SES and system justification was partially mediated by life satisfaction; and (3) both ends of the political spectrum were willing to system-justify more when the political party they favored was in power. The results presented are used to discuss both the current state and the future directions for system justification research.
Antecedents of bullying victimisation in adolescents: a fresh look at Aotearoa New Zealand
(Taylor & Francis Group, 2024-08-13) Birchall M; Drummond A; Williams M
Research has consistently demonstrated that the prevalence of school bullying in Aotearoa New Zealand exceeds those observed in other developed countries. Despite the need to understand the risk and protective factors for bullying victimisation, there remains a paucity of research in the New Zealand context. The present study aimed to investigate the risk factors for bullying victimisation by conducting a secondary data analysis on a large and representative sample of 15-year-olds from New Zealand using data collected during the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (N = 4137). A multiple regression analysis identified eight risk factors which were significantly associated with at least one form of school bullying. The strongest effects indicated that increased parental support and school belonging were associated with lower victimisation, while classroom disorder and school competitiveness were associated with greater victimisation risk. The implications of these findings for future research are discussed.
Democracy and belief in conspiracy theories in New Zealand
(Australian Political Studies Association, 2022) Marques MD; Hill SR; Clarke EJR; Williams M; Ling M; Kerr J; Douglas K; Cichocka A; Sibley C
The COVID-19 pandemic supercharged the spread of fake news, misinformation, and conspiracy theories worldwide. Using a national probability sample of adults from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study during 2020 (17–99 years old; M = 48.59, SD = 13.86; 63% women, 37% men; N = 41,487), we examined the associations between agreement with general conspiracy beliefs and political indicators of intention to vote and satisfaction with government, alongside political factors including trust in politicians, political efficacy, identity centrality, and political ideology. Left-wing political ideology, trust in politicians, and political efficacy accounted for most of the explained variance in satisfaction with the government. General conspiracy belief was also a unique contributor to lower satisfaction with the government. We also found a curvilinear relationship between political ideology with heightened belief in conspiracies at both ideological extremes and the centre. Findings are discussed in terms of the consequences of conspiracy belief on democratic engagement.
Development and Validation of the Affective Polarization Scale
(Ubiquity Press, 2024-06-05) McMurtrie B; Philipp M; Hebden R; Williams M
Affective polarization – an expressed aversion and dislike of members of one’s political outgroup – has increased in many polities in recent years, and thus published research on the topic has proliferated. Studies have asserted that affective polarization is tied to prejudice and authoritarianism, among other potentially harmful phenomena, and is buffered by intellectual humility. We assert that this literature is hindered by the use of ad hoc, heterogeneous measures of affective polarization which have not been properly psychometrically evaluated, and which limit research clarity and make cumulative science on the topic difficult. Informed by the common extant measures of affective polarization we constructed a new scale and investigated its reliability and construct validity. In Study 1 we generated items and had them rated by subject matter experts for content validity (N = 6). In Study 2, a sample of US participants completed the scale (N = 326), an EFA suggested a three-factor model, which had good reliability. In Study 3, a CFA (N = 331) confirmed that a three-factor model fit the data, with subscales labelled Social Distance, Aversion, and Incivility. We also showed that our Affective Polarization Scale had good reliability, through the results of the α- and ω-indicators of reliability. Construct validity analyses supported all pre-registered hypotheses, showing that scores on our scale were positively correlated with authoritarianism, need for closure, and identity strength, and negatively correlated with intellectual humility. We make suggestions for future research and scale usage, such as investigating measurement invariance in different populations, or with different outgroup targets.
Differences in perceived sources of uncertainty in natural hazards science advice: lessons for cross-disciplinary communication
(Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-04-04) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill SR; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison SE; Bostrom A; Becker JS; Tagliacozzo S
Introduction: We conducted mental model interviews in Aotearoa NZ to understand perspectives of uncertainty associated with natural hazards science. Such science contains many layers of interacting uncertainties, and varied understandings about what these are and where they come from creates communication challenges, impacting the trust in, and use of, science. To improve effective communication, it is thus crucial to understand the many diverse perspectives of scientific uncertainty. Methods: Participants included hazard scientists (n = 11, e.g., geophysical, social, and other sciences), professionals with some scientific training (n = 10, e.g., planners, policy analysts, emergency managers), and lay public participants with no advanced training in science (n = 10, e.g., journalism, history, administration, art, or other domains). We present a comparative analysis of the mental model maps produced by participants, considering individuals’ levels of training and expertise in, and experience of, science. Results: A qualitative comparison identified increasing map organization with science literacy, suggesting greater science training in, experience with, or expertise in, science results in a more organized and structured mental model of uncertainty. There were also language differences, with lay public participants focused more on perceptions of control and safety, while scientists focused on formal models of risk and likelihood. Discussion: These findings are presented to enhance hazard, risk, and science communication. It is important to also identify ways to understand the tacit knowledge individuals already hold which may influence their interpretation of a message. The interview methodology we present here could also be adapted to understand different perspectives in participatory and co-development research.
Behavioral Posology: A Novel Paradigm for Modeling the Healthy Limits of Behaviors
(John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2023-09-01) Henry N; Pedersen M; Williams M; Donkin L
One of the challenges faced by behavioral scientists is the lack of modeling methodologies for accurately determining when a behavior becomes problematic. The authors propose “behavioral posology” as a novel modeling paradigm for quantifying the healthy limits of behaviors through the concept of behavioral dose. As an example of this paradigm, a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model of a hypothetical digital behavior is presented, based on opponent process theory. The generic model can be adapted to simulate Solomon and Corbit's model of affective dynamics from 1974, and the model predicts features of addiction such as hedonic allostasis, withdrawal, and apparent tolerance. A behavioral frequency response analysis (BFRA) of the model demonstrates how behavior repetition may result in a hormetic dose–response relationship that depends on the frequency of the behavior. The model can be experimentally validated using Ecological Momentary Assessment, allowing researchers to hypothesize, model, and test causal mechanisms for behavioral addictions. The potential for behavioral posology to be applied as a clinical support tool in psychological medicine is discussed, as this modeling framework may help to detect and limit behaviors being performed too frequently based on factors such as the person's moral beliefs.
Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
(Elsevier, 2023-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill S; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison S; Bostrom A; Becker J
The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.

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