Journal Articles

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    Does Developing a Belief in One Conspiracy Theory Lead a Person to be More Likely to Believe in Others?
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2025-02-17) Williams MN; Marques MD; Kerr JR; Hill SR; Ling M; Clarke EJR
    The monological belief system model suggests that—for at least a subset of people—developing a belief in one conspiracy theory will cause them to be more likely to believe in others. This model has been influential in the literature, but its core causal hypothesis has never been credibly tested. We therefore tested it in two longitudinal studies. Study 1 used a sample from New Zealand and Australia (N = 498), with 7 monthly waves. Study 2 (preregistered) used a sample from New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom (N = 978), with 13 monthly waves. We applied random intercept cross-lagged panel models, permitting a credible causal identification strategy, albeit we cannot rule out time-varying confounds. We find that increased belief in a conspiracy theory at one wave did (on average) predict increased belief in other conspiracies at the next wave, although the estimated coefficients were small.
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    Contribution to O’Donnell et al. (2017, in press). Registered replication report: Dijksterhuis & van Knippenberg (1998).
    (Association for Psychological Science, 2018) Philipp MC; Williams MN; Cannon PC; Drummond A
    Dijksterhuis and van Knippenberg (1998) reported that participants primed with a category associated with intelligence (“professor”) subsequently performed 13% better on a trivia test than participants primed with a category associated with a lack of intelligence (“soccer hooligans”). In two unpublished replications of this study designed to verify the appropriate testing procedures, Dijksterhuis, van Knippenberg, and Holland observed a smaller difference between conditions (2%–3%) as well as a gender difference: Men showed the effect (9.3% and 7.6%), but women did not (0.3% and −0.3%). The procedure used in those replications served as the basis for this multilab Registered Replication Report. A total of 40 laboratories collected data for this project, and 23 of these laboratories met all inclusion criteria. Here we report the meta-analytic results for those 23 direct replications (total N = 4,493), which tested whether performance on a 30-item general-knowledge trivia task differed between these two priming conditions (results of supplementary analyses of the data from all 40 labs, N = 6,454, are also reported). We observed no overall difference in trivia performance between participants primed with the “professor” category and those primed with the “hooligan” category (0.14%) and no moderation by gender.
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    Maximising potential: The psychological effects of the youth development programme project K
    (New Zealand Psychological Society, 2017) Furness K; Williams MN; Veale JF; Gardner DH
    Project K is a positive youth development programme targeting 13-15 year old students with low self-efficacy. It involves three components: wilderness adventure, community challenge and individual mentoring. This longitudinal study aimed to investigate changes in self-efficacy, resilience, connectedness and wellbeing in students participating in Project K. Eighty students (59% male) were recruited from five secondary schools across the North Island of New Zealand for a quasi-experimental study. Participants displaying delinquent behaviour, self-harm, suicidal ideation, or an eating disorder were excluded. Over 14 months, six waves of measurement were completed by Project K participants (n = 49), while four waves of measurement were completed by a control group (n = 31). Analyses using multilevel models showed that completion of Project K had substantial positive effects on selfefficacy, resilience, and wellbeing, although the effect on connectedness was not significant. We conclude that Project K appears to be an effective positive youth development programme for adolescents with low self-efficacy.
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    Australasian Public Awareness and Belief in Conspiracy Theories: Motivational Correlates
    (1/02/2022) Marques MD; Ling M; Williams MN; Kerr JR; McLennan J
    Belief in conspiracies is not restricted to the fringe dwellers of society. International research suggests that such beliefs are quite common and that conspiracy theories may serve three basic psychological motives (i.e., epistemic, existential, and relational) for individuals. Yet, little is known about conspiracy theory awareness or belief in Australasia. We report the first large systematic investigation of system-justifying motives using two nationally representative samples of Australians (n = 1011) and New Zealanders (n = 754). Our findings show that almost all are aware of local and international conspiracies, the majority endorse one or more, and that all three psychological motives consistently relate to conspiracy belief, but not to awareness. In a series of hierarchical multiple regressions, we find that relational (i.e., increased anomie and disillusionment with the government) and existential motives (i.e., less trust in others and increased religiosity) are uniquely and relatively more important than epistemic needs (i.e., decreased analytic thinking) as predictors of increased local and international conspiracy belief. Findings are discussed in terms of the importance of understanding conspiracy theories as an ideological belief system that may function to serve underlying psychological motives.
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    Young New Zealanders’ beliefs about youth suicide and how it can be prevented
    (New Zealand Psychological Society Inc, 2020-04) Holman MS; Williams MN; Wilson, M
    New Zealand has the highest suicide rate amongst youth (ages 15-24) in the OECD. We aimed to conduct a conceptual replication of two previous studies, examining the views that youth in New Zealand hold about the causes of youth suicide, possible solutions, and help-seeking. One hundred university students aged 18 to 24 completed a mixed-methods online survey; 89% were female. One of four hypotheses was supported: Students who were personally aware of another student's suicidality were more willing to seek help for others from the university counselling service. Qualitative findings indicated that bullying and stigma were the most commonly perceived causes of youth suicide, and improvement of mental health services was the most frequently recommended solution. The views of youth should be included in the future development of mental health services and policies aimed at reducing suicide rates for this population.
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    Associations between conspiracism and the rejection of scientific innovations.
    (2021-10) Marques MD; Kerr JR; Williams MN; Ling M; McLennan J
    Public opinion regarding scientific developments such as genetically modified food can be mixed. We suggest such science-based technological innovations are rejected by some because they are perceived to be advanced as part of a conspiracy. In nationally representative samples (Australia n = 1011; New Zealand n = 754), we report the associations between five conspiracism facets and anti-science attitudes. Results indicate broad public opposition to genetically modified food and use of nuclear power, but more acceptance of renewable power, potable recycled water, 5G networks, and childhood vaccinations. There were small to moderate associations between the rejection of scientific innovations and conspiracism. Multivariate models estimating unique associations of conspiracism facets with anti-science attitudes suggested several novel and important relationships, particularly for childhood vaccination, genetically modified food, and 5G networks. We discuss the importance of examining factors such as conspiracism in understanding what may motivate and sustain rejection of scientific evidence-based claims about socially contentious technological innovations.
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    The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand
    (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 29/10/2015) Williams MN; Hill SR; Spicer J
    A number of previous studies have reported a positive relationship between ambient temperature and the incidence of violent crimes such as assault. This has led some authors to suggest that anthropogenic climate change may result in an increase in violent crime rates. In this study, we report an investigation of the relationship between temperature and assault incidence in New Zealand. Both police data listing recorded assaults as well as data from the Ministry of Health listing hospitalisations due to assault were examined. Geographical, seasonal, and irregular daily variation in temperature were all positively related to the incidence of assault, although only the effect of irregular variation in temperature was robust to controls for plausible confounds. The estimated effect of irregular daily variation in temperature was approximately 1.5 % extra recorded assaults for each 1 °C increase in temperature. It remains difficult, however, to make accurate predictions about future assault rates in a warming world. For example, humans may react to sustained changes in climate in ways that differ markedly from their reaction to short-term variation in temperature. Climate change may also affect rates of violence via mechanisms other than those that currently drive the relationship between temperature and violence. Furthermore, assault rates may continue to change in response to factors unrelated to climate change, such as those responsible for the long-term historical decline in human violence.