Journal Articles

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    Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change.
    (National Academy of Sciences, 2024-05-07) Lisovski S; Hoye BJ; Conklin JR; Battley PF; Fuller RA; Gosbell KB; Klaassen M; Benjamin Lee C; Murray NJ; Bauer S; Kareiva P
    The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.
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    Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds.
    (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2024-04-01) Martins PM; Anderson MJ; Sweatman WL; Punnett AJ; Marquet P
    Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.
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    Host phylogeny shapes viral transmission networks in an island ecosystem
    (Springer Nature Limited, 2023-11) French RK; Anderson SH; Cain KE; Greene TC; Minor M; Miskelly CM; Montoya JM; Wille M; Muller CG; Taylor MW; Digby A; Kākāpō Recovery Team; Holmes EC
    Virus transmission between host species underpins disease emergence. Both host phylogenetic relatedness and aspects of their ecology, such as species interactions and predator-prey relationships, may govern rates and patterns of cross-species virus transmission and hence zoonotic risk. To address the impact of host phylogeny and ecology on virus diversity and evolution, we characterized the virome structure of a relatively isolated island ecological community in Fiordland, New Zealand, that are linked through a food web. We show that phylogenetic barriers that inhibited cross-species virus transmission occurred at the level of host phyla (between the Chordata, Arthropoda and Streptophyta) as well as at lower taxonomic levels. By contrast, host ecology, manifest as predator-prey interactions and diet, had a smaller influence on virome composition, especially at higher taxonomic levels. The virus-host community comprised a 'small world' network, in which hosts with a high diversity of viruses were more likely to acquire new viruses, and generalist viruses that infect multiple hosts were more likely to infect additional species compared to host specialist viruses. Such a highly connected ecological community increases the likelihood of cross-species virus transmission, particularly among closely related species, and suggests that host generalist viruses present the greatest risk of disease emergence.
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    Globally invariant metabolism but density-diversity mismatch in springtails
    (Springer Nature Limited, 2023-02-07) Potapov AM; Guerra CA; van den Hoogen J; Babenko A; Bellini BC; Berg MP; Chown SL; Deharveng L; Kováč Ľ; Kuznetsova NA; Ponge J-F; Potapov MB; Russell DJ; Alexandre D; Alatalo JM; Arbea JI; Bandyopadhyaya I; Bernava V; Bokhorst S; Bolger T; Castaño-Meneses G; Chauvat M; Chen T-W; Chomel M; Classen AT; Cortet J; Čuchta P; Manuela de la Pedrosa A; Ferreira SSD; Fiera C; Filser J; Franken O; Fujii S; Koudji EG; Gao M; Gendreau-Berthiaume B; Gomez-Pamies DF; Greve M; Tanya Handa I; Heiniger C; Holmstrup M; Homet P; Ivask M; Janion-Scheepers C; Jochum M; Joimel S; Claudia S Jorge B; Jucevica E; Ferlian O; Iuñes de Oliveira Filho LC; Klauberg-Filho O; Baretta D; Krab EJ; Kuu A; de Lima ECA; Lin D; Lindo Z; Liu A; Lu J-Z; Luciañez MJ; Marx MT; McCary MA; Minor MA; Nakamori T; Negri I; Ochoa-Hueso R; Palacios-Vargas JG; Pollierer MM; Querner P; Raschmanová N; Rashid MI; Raymond-Léonard LJ; Rousseau L; Saifutdinov RA; Salmon S; Sayer EJ; Scheunemann N; Scholz C; Seeber J; Shveenkova YB; Stebaeva SK; Sterzynska M; Sun X; Susanti WI; Taskaeva AA; Thakur MP; Tsiafouli MA; Turnbull MS; Twala MN; Uvarov AV; Venier LA; Widenfalk LA; Winck BR; Winkler D; Wu D; Xie Z; Yin R; Zeppelini D; Crowther TW; Eisenhauer N; Scheu S
    Soil life supports the functioning and biodiversity of terrestrial ecosystems. Springtails (Collembola) are among the most abundant soil arthropods regulating soil fertility and flow of energy through above- and belowground food webs. However, the global distribution of springtail diversity and density, and how these relate to energy fluxes remains unknown. Here, using a global dataset representing 2470 sites, we estimate the total soil springtail biomass at 27.5 megatons carbon, which is threefold higher than wild terrestrial vertebrates, and record peak densities up to 2 million individuals per square meter in the tundra. Despite a 20-fold biomass difference between the tundra and the tropics, springtail energy use (community metabolism) remains similar across the latitudinal gradient, owing to the changes in temperature with latitude. Neither springtail density nor community metabolism is predicted by local species richness, which is high in the tropics, but comparably high in some temperate forests and even tundra. Changes in springtail activity may emerge from latitudinal gradients in temperature, predation and resource limitation in soil communities. Contrasting relationships of biomass, diversity and activity of springtail communities with temperature suggest that climate warming will alter fundamental soil biodiversity metrics in different directions, potentially restructuring terrestrial food webs and affecting soil functioning.
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    Global fine-resolution data on springtail abundance and community structure
    (Springer Nature Limited, 2024-01-03) Potapov AM; Chen T-W; Striuchkova AV; Alatalo JM; Alexandre D; Arbea J; Ashton T; Ashwood F; Babenko AB; Bandyopadhyaya I; Baretta CRDM; Baretta D; Barnes AD; Bellini BC; Bendjaballah M; Berg MP; Bernava V; Bokhorst S; Bokova AI; Bolger T; Bouchard M; Brito RA; Buchori D; Castaño-Meneses G; Chauvat M; Chomel M; Chow Y; Chown SL; Classen AT; Cortet J; Čuchta P; de la Pedrosa AM; De Lima ECA; Deharveng LE; Doblas Miranda E; Drescher J; Eisenhauer N; Ellers J; Ferlian O; Ferreira SSD; Ferreira AS; Fiera C; Filser J; Franken O; Fujii S; Koudji EG; Gao M; Gendreau-Berthiaume B; Gers C; Greve M; Hamra-Kroua S; Handa IT; Hasegawa M; Heiniger C; Hishi T; Holmstrup M; Homet P; Høye TT; Ivask M; Jacques B; Janion-Scheepers C; Jochum M; Joimel S; Jorge BCS; Juceviča E; Kapinga EM; Kováč Ľ; Krab EJ; Krogh PH; Kuu A; Kuznetsova N; Lam WN; Lin D; Lindo Z; Liu AWP; Lu J-Z; Luciáñez MJ; Marx MT; Mawan A; McCary MA; Minor MA; Mitchell GI; Moreno D; Nakamori T; Negri I; Nielsen UN; Ochoa-Hueso R; Oliveira Filho LCI; Palacios-Vargas JG; Pollierer MM; Ponge J-F; Potapov MB; Querner P; Rai B; Raschmanová N; Rashid MI; Raymond-Léonard LJ; Reis AS; Ross GM; Rousseau L; Russell DJ; Saifutdinov RA; Salmon S; Santonja M; Saraeva AK; Sayer EJ; Scheunemann N; Scholz C; Seeber J; Shaw P; Shveenkova YB; Slade EM; Stebaeva S; Sterzynska M; Sun X; Susanti WI; Taskaeva AA; Tay LS; Thakur MP; Treasure AM; Tsiafouli M; Twala MN; Uvarov AV; Venier LA; Widenfalk LA; Widyastuti R; Winck B; Winkler D; Wu D; Xie Z; Yin R; Zampaulo RA; Zeppelini D; Zhang B; Zoughailech A; Ashford O; Klauberg-Filho O; Scheu S
    Springtails (Collembola) inhabit soils from the Arctic to the Antarctic and comprise an estimated ~32% of all terrestrial arthropods on Earth. Here, we present a global, spatially-explicit database on springtail communities that includes 249,912 occurrences from 44,999 samples and 2,990 sites. These data are mainly raw sample-level records at the species level collected predominantly from private archives of the authors that were quality-controlled and taxonomically-standardised. Despite covering all continents, most of the sample-level data come from the European continent (82.5% of all samples) and represent four habitats: woodlands (57.4%), grasslands (14.0%), agrosystems (13.7%) and scrublands (9.0%). We included sampling by soil layers, and across seasons and years, representing temporal and spatial within-site variation in springtail communities. We also provided data use and sharing guidelines and R code to facilitate the use of the database by other researchers. This data paper describes a static version of the database at the publication date, but the database will be further expanded to include underrepresented regions and linked with trait data.
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    AI-based discovery of habitats from museum collections
    (Cell Press, 2024-04-02) Jones CB; Stock K; Perkins SE
    Museum collection records are a source of historic data for species occurrence, but little attention is paid to the associated descriptions of habitat at the sample locations. We propose that artificial intelligence methods have potential to use these descriptions for reconstructing past habitat, to address ecological and evolutionary questions.
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    Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa.
    (Springer Nature Limited, 2020-08-28) Smith MW; Willis T; Alfieri L; James WHM; Trigg MA; Yamazaki D; Hardy AJ; Bisselink B; De Roo A; Macklin MG; Thomas CJ
    Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.
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    Freshwater invertebrate responses to fine sediment stress: A multi-continent perspective
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2024-01) McKenzie M; Brooks A; Callisto M; Collins AL; Durkota JM; Death RG; Jones JI; Linares MS; Matthaei CD; Monk WA; Murphy JF; Wagenhoff A; Wilkes M; Wood PJ; Mathers KL
    Excessive fine sediment (particles <2 mm) deposition in freshwater systems is a pervasive stressor worldwide. However, understanding of ecological response to excess fine sediment in river systems at the global scale is limited. Here, we aim to address whether there is a consistent response to increasing levels of deposited fine sediment by freshwater invertebrates across multiple geographic regions (Australia, Brazil, New Zealand and the UK). Results indicate ecological responses are not globally consistent and are instead dependent on both the region and the facet of invertebrate diversity considered, that is, taxonomic or functional trait structure. Invertebrate communities of Australia were most sensitive to deposited fine sediment, with the greatest rate of change in communities occurring when fine sediment cover was low (below 25% of the reach). Communities in the UK displayed a greater tolerance with most compositional change occurring between 30% and 60% cover. In both New Zealand and Brazil, which included the most heavily sedimented sampled streams, the communities were more tolerant or demonstrated ambiguous responses, likely due to historic environmental filtering of invertebrate communities. We conclude that ecological responses to fine sediment are not generalisable globally and are dependent on landscape filters with regional context and historic land management playing important roles.
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    Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity.
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2023-08-01) Gonzalez Daza W; Muylaert RL; Sobral-Souza T; Lemes Landeiro V; Oren E; Blanco G
    Malaria is a prevalent disease in several tropical and subtropical regions, including Brazil, where it remains a significant public health concern. Even though there have been substantial efforts to decrease the number of cases, the reoccurrence of epidemics in regions that have been free of cases for many years presents a significant challenge. Due to the multifaceted factors that influence the spread of malaria, influencing malaria risk factors were analyzed through regional outbreak cluster analysis and spatio-temporal models in the Brazilian Amazon, incorporating climate, land use/cover interactions, species richness, and number of endemic birds and amphibians. Results showed that high amphibian and bird richness and endemism correlated with a reduction in malaria risk. The presence of forest had a risk-increasing effect, but it depended on its juxtaposition with anthropic land uses. Biodiversity and landscape composition, rather than forest formation presence alone, modulated malaria risk in the period. Areas with low endemic species diversity and high human activity, predominantly anthropogenic landscapes, posed high malaria risk. This study underscores the importance of considering the broader ecological context in malaria control efforts.
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    The risk of vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi remains high in the State of Paraná.
    (Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde, 2024-06-10) Trovo JVS; Weber-Lima MM; Prado-Costa B; Iunklaus GF; Andrade AJ; Sobral-Souza T; Muylaert RL; Alvarenga LM; Toledo MJO
    BACKGROUND: Monitoring and analysing the infection rates of the vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, that causes Chagas disease, helps assess the risk of transmission. OBJECTIVES: A study was carried out on triatomine in the State of Paraná, Brazil, between 2012 and 2021 and a comparison was made with a previous study. This was done to assess the risk of disease transmission. METHODS: Ecological niche models based on climate and landscape variables were developed to predict habitat suitability for the vectors as a proxy for risk of occurrence. FINDINGS: A total of 1,750 specimens of triatomines were recorded, of which six species were identified. The overall infection rate was 22.7%. The areas with the highest risk transmission of T. cruzi are consistent with previous predictions in municipalities. New data shows that climate models are more accurate than landscape models. This is likely because climate suitability was higher in the previous period. MAIN CONCLUSION: Regardless of uneven sampling and potential biases, risk remains high due to the wide presence of infected vectors and high environmental suitability for vector species throughout the state and, therefore, improvements in public policies aimed at wide dissemination of knowledge about the disease are recommended to ensure the State remains free of Chagas disease.