Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

Browse

Filters

2023 - 20243

Settings

Has files: YesSubject: search.filters.subject.TVP-VAR

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Tail risk connectedness between DeFi and Islamic assets and their determinants
    (Elsevier B.V., 2024-12-18) Billah M; Hoque ME; Hadhri S; Do HX
    This study explores tail risk spillover between DeFi and Islamic assets using a time-frequency domain approach. We also conduct sub-sample analyses to account for the diverse impacts of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on financial markets. Recognizing the importance of global factors in financial market interdependencies, this research also assesses their impacts on tail risk connections. Empirical findings reveal varying levels of total connectedness among DeFi assets, sukuk markets, and Islamic equity indexes across different time spans, indicating a moderate but fluctuating degree of integration. DeFi assets generally appear disconnected from sukuk and Islamic stock markets over various periods, with the notable exception of a strong and consistent link between SNX in the DeFi sector and sukuk markets (excluding the Indonesian market) over medium- and long-term durations, suggesting that both DeFi and Islamic assets have hedging capabilities. Additionally, the integration between DeFi and Islamic assets is weaker during the COVID-19 era compared to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict period, with changes in the transmission mechanism. Further analysis identifies several potential predictors of tail risk connectedness between DeFi and Islamic assets. Our findings have significant risk management implications for investors and DeFi companies.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Does the U.S. export inflation? Evidence from the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and EAGLEs
    (Elsevier Inc, 2024-07-02) Nguyen TTT; Pham SD; Li X-M; Do HX
    Given the crucial role of inflation as a key economic barometer, our paper investigates the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and the nine emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLEs) between 1991M1 and 2020M2. Employing the recently developed time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR)-based connectedness approach, we find evidence of a moderate inflation spillover across the sample countries at normal condition. We further point out that inflation spillover effects with the U.S. are more pronounced for the emerging markets with higher openness, the net oil-importing emerging markets, and the emerging markets following free-float exchange rate regimes. More importantly, the inflation spillover index among the system rises dramatically to over 70% under extremely inflationary conditions, implying that the transmission of spiral inflation is very high. Additionally, the time-varying analysis shows that the role of the U.S. in the inflation shock transmission with emerging countries varies between being a net inflation-exporter and inflation-importer over times. Finally, an investigation of the drivers of the inflation spillovers reveals that the U.S. dollar, emerging markets' economic policy uncertainty, and bilateral trade are key determinants of the inflation shock transmission among the system. Our findings justify central banks’ actions in decreasing U.S. dollar reserves to safeguard their domestic currencies.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Interconnectivity and investment strategies among commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and G-20 capital markets: A comparative analysis during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war
    (Elsevier Inc, 2023-11) Kumar S; Jain R; Narain; Balli F; Billah M
    Economic and political disorders have multidimensional impacts on all economies around the world. The global world has faced out COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and now the Russian-Ukraine geopolitical crisis. This study investigates the nexus among commodities, crypto, and G20 capital markets along with risk and returns implications. To examine the impact, we applied the TVP-VAR technique suggested by Koop and Korobilis (2014), and Antonakakis, Chatziantoniou, and Gabauer (2020) by adjusting the framework of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). The research findings reveal that a high level of connectedness was observed during Covid-19, which was persistent for a long period and has multidimensional impacts. More particularly, EU, Canada, France Germany, and the UK were the principal supplier of spillovers to other commodities, Bitcoin, and the remaining markets. During Geopolitical Crisis (here after GPC), conclusively it is observed that of USA, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Mexico, China, Indonesia, and Japan are the net receivers of the volatility spillovers and Russia, Germany, France, European Union, Italy, UK, Argentina, India, Australia, Turkey, Korea, and South Africa are the net transmitters of volatility spillovers. Interestingly, among net transmitters Argentina, South Africa and Turkey are suffered from high inflation and substantial budget deficits, considered as weak economies of G20. Portfolio weights has been increased dramatically during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war. This research could be utilized to take investment, hedging, and diversification decisions about commodities, cryptocurrencies, and stocks, particularly in such turmoil situations with the help of connectedness and various hedging techniques.