Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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    Modeling the Chaotic Semantic States of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI): A Quantum Mechanics Analogy Approach
    (Association for Computing Machinery, 2025-12-01) Liu T; McIntosh TR; Susnjak T; Watters P; Halgamuge MN
    Generative artificial intelligence (AI) models have revolutionized intelligent systems by enabling machines to produce human-like content across diverse domains. However, their outputs often exhibit unpredictability due to complex and opaque internal semantic states, posing challenges for reliability in real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce the AI Uncertainty Principle, a novel theoretical framework inspired by quantum mechanics, to model and quantify the inherent unpredictability in generative AI outputs. By drawing parallels with the uncertainty principle and superposition, we formalize the trade-off between the precision of internal semantic states and output variability. Through comprehensive experiments involving state-of-the-art models and a variety of prompt designs, we analyze how factors such as specificity, complexity, tone, and style influence model behavior. Our results demonstrate that carefully engineered prompts can significantly enhance output predictability and consistency, while excessive complexity or irrelevant information can increase uncertainty. We also show that ensemble techniques, such as Sigma-weighted aggregation across models and prompt variations, effectively improve reliability. Our findings have profound implications for the development of intelligent systems, emphasizing the critical role of prompt engineering and theoretical modeling in creating AI technologies that perceive, reason, and act predictably in the real world.
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    Measuring economic country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye
    (Springer Nature, 2024-06-12) Kilic I; Balli F
    In this paper, a new measure for uncertainty that affects the economy is proposed, constructed, and applied to an emerging economy, Türkiye. We have constructed an index of economic country-specific uncertainty (ECSU) that is in line with the methodology used in constructing economic policy uncertainty indexes. As the economic uncertainty is of the Knightian type, the essence of measuring it lies in counting the frequency of joint appearances of words related to economics and uncertainty in Turkish-language newspapers. The uncertainty index constructed using local language sources- Turkish performs significantly better in measuring country-specific uncertainty in Türkiye. However, some indexes use English language sources to measure uncertainty in Türkiye- did not make them country-specific. The ECSU was tested by evaluating the dynamic real effects of the uncertainty. This evaluation was performed by the analysis of impulse responses from uncertainty to some economic variables in a vector autoregressive model describing the economy of Türkiye. We find that an unexpected increase in uncertainty in the Turkish-language press is related to decreases in industrial production, employment, and trade. If the uncertainty measure is based on the articles from the English-language press only, no such relationship can be confirmed. We also find that an increase in uncertainty leads to increase in inflation and stock and oil prices.
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    How Visual Design of Severe Weather Outlooks Can Affect Communication and Decision-Making
    (American Meteorological Society, 2023-10-16) Clive MAT; Doyle EEH; Potter SH; Noble C; Johnston DM
    Multiday severe weather outlooks can inform planning beyond the hour-to-day windows of warnings and watches. Outlooks can be complex to visualize, as they represent large-scale weather phenomena overlapping across several days at varying levels of uncertainty. Here, we present the results of a survey (n 5 417) that explores how visual varia-bles affect comprehension, inferences, and intended decision-making in a hypothetical scenario with the New Zealand MetService Severe Weather Outlook. We propose that visualization of the time window, forecast area, icons, and uncertainty can influence perceptions and decision-making based on four key findings. First, composite-style outlooks that depict multiple days of weather on one map can lead to biased perceptions of the forecast. When responding to questions about a day for which participants accurately reported there was no severe weather forecast, those who viewed a composite outlook reported higher likelihoods of severe weather occurring, higher levels of concern about travel, and higher likelihoods of changing plans compared to those who viewed outlooks that showed weather for each day on a separate map, suggesting that they perceived the forecast to underrepresent the likelihood of severe weather on that day. Second, presenting uncertainty in an extrinsic way (e.g., “low”) can lead to more accurate estimates of likelihood than intrinsic formats (e.g., hue variation). Third, shaded forecast areas may lead to higher levels of confidence in the forecast than outlined forecast areas. Fourth, inclusion of weather icons can improve comprehension in some conditions. The results demonstrate how visualization can affect decision-making about severe weather and support several evidence-based considerations for effective design of long-term forecasts.
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    Where does scientific uncertainty come from, and from whom? Mapping perspectives of natural hazards science advice
    (Elsevier, 2023-10-01) Doyle EEH; Thompson J; Hill S; Williams M; Paton D; Harrison S; Bostrom A; Becker J
    The science associated with assessing natural hazard phenomena and the risks they pose contains many layers of complex and interacting elements, resulting in diverse sources of uncertainty. This creates a challenge for effective communication, which must consider how people perceive that uncertainty. Thus, we conducted twenty-five mental model interviews in Aotearoa New Zealand with participants ranging from scientists to policy writers and emergency managers, and through to the public. The interviews included three phases: an initial elicitation of free thoughts about uncertainty, a mental model mapping activity, and a semi-structured interview protocol to explore further questions about scientific processes and their personal philosophy of science. Qualitative analysis led to the construction of key themes, including: (a) understanding that, in addition to data sources, the ‘actors’ involved can also be sources of uncertainty; (b) acknowledging that factors such as governance and funding decisions partly determine uncertainty; (c) the influence of assumptions about expected human behaviours contributing to “known unknowns'; and (d) the difficulty of defining what uncertainty actually is. Participants additionally highlighted the positive role of uncertainty for promoting debate and as a catalyst for further inquiry. They also demonstrated a level of comfort with uncertainty and advocated for ‘sitting with uncertainty’ for transparent reporting in advice. Additional influences included: an individual's understanding of societal factors; the role of emotions; using outcomes as a scaffold for interpretation; and the complex and noisy communications landscape. Each of these require further investigation to enhance the communication of scientific uncertainty.
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    Strategies, uncertainty and performance of small business startups
    (Kluwer, 2000) Van Gelderen, Marco; Frese, Michael; Thurik, Roy
    Personal strategies of owners/founders of small business startups are related to performance and to environmental uncertainty. This is done using a longitudinal data set. Personal strategies are operationalized by a behavioral measure of the manners in which small business founders deal with situations. The results suggest a dynamic process between strategy and performance. Business owners that perform poorly employ a Reactive Strategy, with poor performance leading to increased use of reactive behavior. High performing business owners start out focussing on the most crucial issues (Critical Point Strategy), with high performance leading to a more top-down (Complete Planning) approach. These relations are controlled for characteristics of the environment of the firm. Strategy use is dependent upon the type and level of environmental uncertainty. Complete Planning strategy is used less frequently in a fast changing environment and more often in a complex environment. Use of Opportunistic Strategy is negatively related to the complexity of the environment, while the Reactive Strategy is used more frequently in a non-munificent environment.