Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item Machine learning for predicting climate change impacts on Pseudopithomyces chartarum spore counts: a risk indicator of facial eczema(Taylor and Francis Group, 2025-11-09) Wada M; Sagarasaeranee O; Cogger N; Marshall J; Cuttance E; Macara G; Sood A; Vallee EAims To determine the importance of 11 climate variables on pasture spore count of Pseudopithomyces chartarum, a risk indicator of facial eczema (FE), and to forecast spore counts in New Zealand until 2100, using longitudinal P. chartarum pasture spore count data. Methods Between 2010 and 2017, spore counts (n = 6,975) were collected from 862 paddocks spread over 102 farms in the North Island of New Zealand. Historical and projected climate data were obtained from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. The spore count dataset was merged with climate data from corresponding locations, incorporating time lags of 1–53 weeks. Linear regression models were fitted for describing crude associations, while random forest models were fitted for determining variable importance and predicting future spore counts. Results Mixed-effect linear regression models explained up to 11% of the variance of log-transformed spore counts by a single lagged climate covariate. The best-fit random forest model had a testing accuracy of 80% in classifying low or high FE risk (> 20,000 spores) with an R2 value of 43%. The random forest models suggested time-dependent importance of soil temperature at 10 cm depth, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, vapour pressure, soil moisture and minimum temperature, while no or weak evidence of variable importance was found for maximum temperature, rainfall, mean sea level atmospheric pressure, relative humidity and wind speed. Over the next 80 years, our model predicted an increase in the seasonal mean spore counts in the study farms by a mean of 17% (min 6, max 30%) under the high-end greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5). Every decade was associated with an increase in the probability of high-risk spore counts (> 20,000) by 14–22% for the moderate to high emission scenarios (RCP 4.5–8.5). The model indicated increased peak spore counts across most regions over the next 80 years. Specifically, the entire North Island and three districts in the South Island were projected to have high mean peak spore counts by 2100. Conclusions and clinical relevance These findings could be used to target high-risk areas to implement mitigation or adaptation measures for FE. In addition, the study highlights the value of ecological data for forecasting environmental disease risks to enhance preparedness for climate change.Item The Effect of Climate Change on Emergence and Evolution of Zoonotic Diseases in Asia(Wiley-VCH GmbH, 2025-09-01) Morris RS; Wada MAs the climate of Asia changes under the influence of global warming, the incidence and spatial distribution of known zoonoses will evolve, and new zoonoses are expected to emerge as a result of greater exposure to organisms which currently occur only in wildlife. In order to evaluate the risks attached to different transmission methods and organism maintenance mechanisms, a classification system is provided which allocates diseases into nine epitypes. All animal diseases and zoonoses recognised as globally important can be categorised into an epitype, or in a few cases more than one epidemiologically distinct epitype. Within each epitype, evidence available on the effects of climatic factors is provided for selected diseases of zoonotic importance to illustrate likely future evolution of these diseases and the extent of currently available evidence for different diseases. Factors which are likely to influence the emergence of novel zoonotic pathogens in Asia are outlined. The range of methods available for analysis, prediction, and evaluation of likely changes in disease occurrence under the influence of climate change has grown rapidly; an introduction is given to the types of tools now available. These methods will need to be integrated into a surveillance and response strategy for Asia, and an approach to achieve this is outlined.Item Increased Diurnal Activity Is Indicative of Energy Deficit in a Nocturnal Mammal, the Aardvark(Frontiers Media S.A., 2020-07-07) Weyer NM; Fuller A; Haw AJ; Meyer LCR; Mitchell D; Picker M; Rey B; Hetem RS; Nowack JShifting activity to cooler times of day buffers animals from increased heat and aridity under climate change. Conversely, when resources are limited, some nocturnal species become more diurnal, reducing energetic costs of keeping warm at night. Aardvarks (Orycteropus afer) are nocturnal, obligate ant- and termite-eating mammals which may be threatened directly by increasing heat and aridity, or indirectly by the effects of climate change on their prey. We hypothesised that the minimum 24-h body temperature of aardvarks would decline during energy scarcity, and that aardvarks would extend their active phases to compensate for reduced resource availability, possibly resulting in increased diurnal activity when aardvarks were energetically compromised. To measure their thermoregulatory patterns and foraging activity, we implanted abdominal temperature and activity data loggers into 12 adult aardvarks and observed them for varying durations over 3 years in the Kalahari. Under non-drought conditions, aardvarks tightly controlled their 24-h body temperature rhythm (mean amplitude of the 24-h body temperature rhythm was 1.8 ± 0.3°C during summer and 2.1 ± 0.1°C during winter) and usually were nocturnal. During a summer drought, aardvarks relaxed the precision of body temperature regulation (mean 24-h amplitude 2.3 ± 0.4°C) and those that subsequently died shifted their activity to progressively earlier times of day in the weeks before their deaths. Throughout the subsequent winter, the aardvarks’ minimum 24-h body temperatures declined, causing exaggerated heterothermy (4.7 ± 1.3°C; absolute range 24.7 to 38.8°C), with one individual’s body temperature varying by 11.7°C within 8 h. When body temperatures were low, aardvarks often emerged from burrows during daytime, and occasionally returned before sunset, resulting in completely diurnal activity. Aardvarks also shortened their active periods by 25% during food scarcity, likely to avoid energetic costs incurred by foraging. Despite their physiological and behavioural flexibility, aardvarks were unable to compensate for reduced food availability. Seven study aardvarks and several others died, presumably from starvation. Our results do not bode well for aardvarks facing climate change, and for the many animal species dependent on aardvark burrows for refuge.Item Overtourism, optimisation, and destination performance indicators: a case study of activities in Fjord Norway(Taylor and Francis Group, 2019-12-02) Oklevik O; Gössling S; Hall CM; Steen Jacobsen JK; Grøtte IP; McCabe SMany global tourist destinations have experienced growth in arrivals. This has triggered various conflicts in destinations and sparked debates as to how to deal with what is increasingly referred to as ‘overtourism’. Most Destination Marketing Organisations (DMOs) pursue strategies to stimulate arrivals even further. Pro-growth discourses are reinforced by lead bodies such as the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). However, maximisation strategies based on higher numbers of tourists increasingly cause conflicts with local residents, whereas simultaneously undermining climate change mitigation pledges as negotiated in the Paris Agreement. New approaches to destination management based on optimisation are therefore warranted. Drawing on a survey of international tourists (n = 5,249) in south-western Norway, this article discusses whether ‘activities’, i.e. the development of local, small-scale and ideally more sustainable experiences, can contribute to economic growth without necessarily increasing numbers of arrivals. Results confirm that destinations should seek to better understand their markets, including length of stay, spending, and/or activity intention, to identify profitable markets. Ultimately, such knowledge may help addressing overtourism conflicts while building tourism systems that are more economically, socially, and environmentally resilient.Item New Zealand Winegrowers Attitudes and Behaviours towards Wine Tourism and Sustainable Winegrowing(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2018-03-13) Baird T; Hall CM; Castka PThere are significant economic, environmental, social, and marketing issues that exist from the supply-side perspective in response to sustainability. This study examines New Zealand winegrowers in terms of their attitudes and behaviours towards wine tourism and sustainable wine production. A national survey was conducted at the end of 2015, which was the fourth such survey to be undertaken as part of a longitudinal study of wine tourism in New Zealand. This survey drew on issues of wine and biosecurity, climate change, and eco-labelling, as well as wine tourism. These issues were examined within the context of three key drivers of sustainability: the physical aspects of sustainable wine production, the internal drivers within wine businesses for the adoption of sustainable practices, and the external regulatory aspects that govern the adoption of sustainable wine production practices. The findings indicate that there were substantial concerns with the perceived value provided by both wine tourism and sustainable winegrowing practices. These concerns exist at both the firm level and with the governing bodies that are responsible for implementing sustainable winegrowing initiatives. Unless this perception of the value of sustainability within the New Zealand wine industry is altered in the future, it appears that there will continue to be an ongoing issue as to how sustainable winegrowing initiatives are implemented.Item The effects of rain and flooding on leptospirosis incidence in sheep and cattle in New Zealand(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the New Zealand Veterinary Association, 2025-08-12) Sadler E; Vallee E; Watts J; Wada MAims To describe the spatio-temporal patterns of leptospirosis case counts in sheep and cattle in New Zealand, and to assess their association with climate variables indicative of flooding and surface runoff. As livestock are a major reservoir of Leptospira spp. and an important source of zoonotic transmission, understanding these patterns is critical for informing livestock and public health interventions in the context of climate change. Methods Confirmed cases of bovine and ovine leptospirosis from January 2011 to December 2023 were extracted from the Ministry for Primary Industries’ Animal Health Surveillance programme. Climate data was sourced from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. Using the χ2 test and Poisson regression models, the association between district-level case counts and four climate indices were examined: seasonal mean rainfall, seasonal frequency of extreme rainfall, seasonal mean soil moisture, and seasonal frequency of estimated surface runoff. Results Findings indicated an average of 13 confirmed cases for sheep annually, with notable surges in 2017 (34 cases) and 2023 (36 cases), aligning with extreme climate events. Poisson regression models for sheep leptospirosis identified significant associations with extreme rainfall (incidence risk ratio (IRR) = 5.03; 95% CI = 1.18–21.45), mean rainfall (IRR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.15–1.36), surface runoff (IRR = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.04–1.15), and soil moisture (IRR = 1.03; 95% CI = 1.02–1.03). Cattle leptospirosis was positively associated with surface runoff (IRR = 1.06; 95% CI = 1.02–1.10) and soil moisture (IRR = 1.01; 95% CI = 1.00–1.01). Associations with extreme rainfall (IRR = 1.46; 95% CI = 0.49–4.31) and mean rainfall (IRR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.00–1.14) were not statistically significant. Conclusions The outcomes of this study provide new evidence linking extreme rainfall, surface runoff, and other climate variables with increased leptospirosis case counts in sheep, with less pronounced but notable associations in cattle. These findings highlight the vulnerability of livestock to climate-driven disease pressures and suggest that future extreme weather events may increase the risk of leptospirosis outbreaks. This has important implications for targeted vaccination, surveillance, and public health preparedness in flood-prone rural regions of New Zealand.Item Future Holiday Climate Index (HCI) Performance of Urban and Beach Destinations in the Mediterranean(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2020-09-01) Demiroglu OC; Saygili-Araci FS; Pacal A; Hall CM; Kurnaz MLTourism is a major socioeconomic contributor to established and emerging destinations in the Mediterranean region. Recent studies introducing the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) highlight the significance of climate as a factor in sustaining the competitiveness of coastal and urban destinations. The aim of this study is to assess the future HCI performance of urban and beach destinations in the greater Mediterranean region. For this purpose, HCI scores for the reference (1971-2000) and future (2021-2050, 2070-2099) periods were computed with the use of two latest greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, based on the Middle East North Africa (MENA) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domain and data. The outputs were adjusted to a 500 m resolution via the use of lapse rate corrections that extrapolate the climate model topography against a resampled digital elevation model. All periodic results were seasonally aggregated and visualized on a (web) geographical information system (GIS). The web version of the GIS also allowed for a basic climate service where any user can search her/his place of interest overlaid with index ratings. Exposure levels are revealed at the macro scale while sensitivity is discussed through a validation of the climatic outputs against visitation data for one of Mediterranean's leading destinations, Antalya.Item Unintended Maladaptation: How Agritourism Development Policies in Iran Have Increased Vulnerability to Climate Change(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2023-08-29) Torabi Z-A; Khavarian-Garmsir AR; Hall CM; Khatibi NB; Borghi ADImplementing appropriate policies is crucial for adapting the agricultural sector to climate change. However, adopting incorrect policies can exacerbate unsustainable development. Hence, this study investigated the unintended consequences of agritourism development policies as a climate change adaptation strategy in the villages of Shahrud, Iran. It demonstrated how such policies have inadvertently heightened farmers’ vulnerability to climate change impacts. Data were collected through 44 semi-structured interviews, which underwent thematic analysis to identify emerging patterns. The study’s findings indicate that the rapid expansion of Agritourism in Iran, aimed at addressing climate change, has failed to achieve its intended goals. Inadequate government support, increased supply, legal gaps, and lack of empowerment were identified as contributing factors leading to unsustainable development and financial losses. Consequently, smallholder farmers were found to harbor negative perceptions of agritourism and expressed dissatisfaction with existing policies. These findings underscore the necessity of comprehensive policies and support systems to facilitate the effective implementation of sustainable agritourism by stakeholders in Iran.Item High Temperatures and Tourism: Findings from China(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2023-10-01) Yu D; Li S; Chen NC; Hall M; Guo Z; Carlucci FClimate change and its fluctuations exert significant impacts on the tourism industry, particularly through the influence of high temperatures as typical meteorological and climatic factors on tourists’ travel intentions, spatial behavior preferences, and destination choices. This study employs China as a case study to investigate the effects of high-temperature weather on tourism and tourist travel. By analyzing news reports, conducting observations, and examining statistics, an exploratory analysis of tourism in China under high-temperature scenarios reveals several noteworthy findings. Firstly, tourists seeking relief from the summer heat exhibit a preference for short-distance trips and destinations rich in natural resources. Secondly, heat-escape tourism products have gradually transformed over time, evolving from mountain heat escapes in the 1980s to waterfront vacations in the 1990s, artificial water leisure in the 2000s, and ultimately culminating in the development of heat-escape cities in the 2010s. Additionally, this study examines interregional disparities in summer tourism climate amenity across China using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), and daily data from 775 weather stations. It also provides a summary of the spatiotemporal evolution from 1961 to 2020 within the context of climate change, revealing intriguing findings. Moreover, a case study of Shanghai Disneyland demonstrates the greater significance of the holiday system compared to temperature constraints. This study aims to examine the interaction between high temperatures and China’s tourism in the context of climate change, providing a scientific foundation for government agencies and tourism enterprises to develop effective policies and plans.Item Geobibliography and Bibliometric Networks of Polar Tourism and Climate Change Research(MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2020-05-13) Demiroglu OC; Hall CMIn late 2019, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their much-awaited Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC). High mountain areas, polar regions, low-lying islands and coastal areas, and ocean and marine ecosystems, were separately dealt by experts to reveal the impacts of climate change on these regions, as well as the responses of the natural and human systems inhabiting or related to these regions. The tourism sector was found, among the main systems, influenced by climate change in the oceanic and cryospheric environments. In this study, we deepen the understanding of tourism and climate interrelationships in the polar regions. In doing so, we step outside the climate resilience of polar tourism paradigm and systematically assess the literature in terms of its gaps relating to an extended framework where the impacts of tourism on climate through a combined and rebound effects lens are in question as well. Following a systematic identification and screening on two major bibliometric databases, a final selection of 93 studies, spanning the 2004-2019 period, are visualized in terms of their thematic and co-authorship networks and a study area based geobibliography, coupled with an emerging hot spots analysis, to help identify gaps for future research.
