Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for National Park Infrastructure Proximal to Taranaki Volcano (New Zealand)(Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-03-28) Mead S; Procter J; Bebbington M; Rodriguez-Gomez C; Fontijn KHazard assessment for infrastructure proximal to a volcanic vent raises issues that are often not present, or not as severe in hazard assessments for more distal infrastructure. Proximal regions are subject to a greater number of hazardous phenomena, and variability in impact intensity increases with the hazard magnitude. To probabilistically quantify volcanic hazard to infrastructure, multiple volcanic hazards and their effects on exposed elements need to be considered. Compared to single-hazard assessments, multi-hazard assessments increase the size and complexity of determining hazard occurrence and magnitude, typically introducing additional uncertainties in the quantification of risk. A location-centred approach, focusing on key locations rather than key hazards, can simplify the problem to one requiring identification of hazards with the potential to affect the location, followed by assessment of the probability of these hazards and their triggering eruptions. The location-centred approach is more compatible to multi-source hazards and allows for different hazard estimation methodologies to be applied as appropriate for the infrastructure type. We present a probabilistic quantification of volcanic hazard using this location centred approach for infrastructure within Te Papakura o Taranaki National Park, New Zealand. The impact to proposed park infrastructure from volcanic activity (originating from Mt. Taranaki) is quantified using a probability chain to provide a structured approach to integrate differing hazard estimation methods with eruption probability estimates within asset lifetimes. This location-centered approach provides quantitative estimates for volcanic hazards that significantly improve volcanic hazard estimates for infrastructure proximal to the Taranaki summit vent. Volcanic mass flows, predominantly pyroclastic surges or block and ash flows, are most likely (probability >0.8) to affect walking tracks if an eruption occurs. The probability of one or more eruption(s) in the next 50 years is estimated at 0.35–0.38. This use of probability chains and a location centered assessment demonstrates a technique that can be applied to proximal hazard assessments globally.Item Short-Term Eruption Forecasting for Crisis Decision-Support in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand(Frontiers Media S.A., 2022-05-24) Wild AJ; Bebbington MS; Lindsay JM; Wright HMAuckland, a city of 1.6 million people, is situated atop the active monogenetic Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). Thus, short-term eruption forecasting is critical to support crisis management in a future event, especially to inform decisions such as calling evacuations. Here we present an updated BET_EF for the AVF incorporating new data and the results of an expert-opinion workshop, and test the performance of the resulting BETEF_AVF on eight hypothetical eruption scenarios with pre-eruptive sequences. We carry out a sensitivity analysis into the selection of prior distributions for key model parameters to explore the utility of using BET_EF outputs as a potential input for evacuation decision making in areas of distributed volcanism such as the AVF. BETEF_AVF performed well based on the synthetic unrest dataset for assessing the probability of eruption, with the vent outbreaks eventuating within the zone of high spatial likelihood. Our analysis found that the selection of different spatial prior model inputs affects the estimated vent location due to the weighting between prior models and monitoring inputs within the BET_EF, which as unrest escalates may not be appropriate for distributed volcanic fields. This issue is compounded when the outputs are combined with cost-benefit analysis to inform evacuation decisions, leading to areas well beyond those with observed precursory activity being included in evacuation zones. We find that several default settings used in past work for the application of BET_EF and CBA to inform evacuation decision-support are not suitable for distributed volcanism; in particular, the default 50-50 weighting between priors and monitoring inputs for assessing spatial vent location does not produce useful results. We conclude by suggesting future cost-benefit analysis applications in volcanic fields appropriately consider the spatial and temporal variability and uncertainty characteristic of such systems.Item The geological history and hazards of a long-lived stratovolcano, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand(Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2021-03-17) Cronin SJ; Zernack AV; Ukstins IA; Turner MB; Torres-Orozco R; Stewart RB; Smith IEM; Procter JN; Price R; Platz T; Petterson M; Neall VE; McDonald GS; Lerner GA; Damaschcke M; Bebbington MSMt. Taranaki is an andesitic stratovolcano in the western North Island of New Zealand. Its magmas show slab-dehydration signatures and over the last 200 kyr they show gradually increasing incompatible element concentrations. Source basaltic melts from the upper mantle lithosphere pond at the base of the crust (∼25 km), interacting with other stalled melts rich in amphibole. Evolved hydrous magmas rise and pause in the mid crust (14–6 km), before taking separate pathways to eruption. Over 228 tephras erupted over the last 30 kyr display a 1000–1500 yr-periodic cycle with a five-fold variation in eruption frequency. Magmatic supply and/or tectonic regime could control this rate-variability. The volcano has collapsed and re-grown 16 times, producing large (2 to >7.5 km3) debris avalanches. Magma intrusion along N-S striking faults below the edifice are the most likely trigger for its failure. The largest Mt. Taranaki Plinian eruption columns reach ∼27 km high, dispersing 0.1 to 0.6 km3 falls throughout the North Island. Smaller explosive eruptions, or dome-growth and collapse episodes were more frequent. Block-and-ash flows reached up to 13 km from the vent, while the largest pumice pyroclastic density currents travelled >23 km. Mt. Taranaki last erupted in AD1790 and the present annual probability of eruption is 1–1.3%.Item Synthesizing large-scale pyroclastic flows: Experimental design, scaling, and first results from PELE(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 1/03/2015) Lube G; Breard ECP; Cronin SJ; Jones JPyroclastic flow eruption large-scale experiment (PELE) is a large-scale facility for experimental studies of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). It is used to generate high-energy currents involving 500-6500 m3 natural volcanic material and air that achieve velocities of 7-30 m s-1, flow thicknesses of 2-4.5 m, and runouts of >35 m. The experimental PDCs are synthesized by a controlled "eruption column collapse" of ash-lapilli suspensions onto an instrumented channel. The first set of experiments are documented here and used to elucidate the main flow regimes that influence PDC dynamic structure. Four phases are identified: (1) mixture acceleration during eruption column collapse, (2) column-slope impact, (3) PDC generation, and (4) ash cloud diffusion. The currents produced are fully turbulent flows and scale well to natural PDCs including small to large scales of turbulent transport. PELE is capable of generating short, pulsed, and sustained currents over periods of several tens of seconds, and dilute surge-like PDCs through to highly concentrated pyroclastic flow-like currents. The surge-like variants develop a basal <0.05 m thick regime of saltating/rolling particles and shifting sand waves, capped by a 2.5-4.5 m thick, turbulent suspension that grades upward to lower particle concentrations. Resulting deposits include stratified dunes, wavy and planar laminated beds, and thin ash cloud fall layers. Concentrated currents segregate into a dense basal underflow of <0.6 m thickness that remains aerated. This is capped by an upper ash cloud surge (1.5-3 m thick) with 100 to 10-4 vol % particles. Their deposits include stratified, massive, normally and reversely graded beds, lobate fronts, and laterally extensive veneer facies beyond channel margins.