Journal Articles
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915
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Item Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change.(National Academy of Sciences, 2024-05-07) Lisovski S; Hoye BJ; Conklin JR; Battley PF; Fuller RA; Gosbell KB; Klaassen M; Benjamin Lee C; Murray NJ; Bauer S; Kareiva PThe pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.Item Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds.(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2024-04-01) Martins PM; Anderson MJ; Sweatman WL; Punnett AJ; Marquet PChanges in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.Item Pollen-mediated gene flow from wild carrots (Daucus carota L. subsp. carota) affects the production of commercial carrot seeds (Daucus carota L. subsp. sativus) internationally and in New Zealand in the context of climate change: A systematic review(Elsevier BV, 2024-07-10) Godwin A; Pieralli S; Sofkova-Bobcheva S; Ward A; McGill C; Paoletti EClimate change will impact the carrot seed industry globally. One adaptation strategy to limit climatic impacts on the production of commercial carrot seeds is geographical shift. However, production must be shifted to climate-optimal places that are free from weeds such as wild carrots to avoid genetic contamination via hybridization. The process of gene flow between wild and cultivated carrots is critical to enable management of wild carrots in the face of climate change. This review systematically assesses the resilience of wild carrots to climate change and their impact on commercial carrot seed production globally with a focus on New Zealand as a major carrot seed producer. The literature was critically analyzed based on three specific components: i) resilience of wild carrots to climate change ii) genetic contamination between wild and cultivated carrots, and iii) management of wild carrots. The majority of the articles were published between 2013 and 2023 (64.71 %), and most of these studies were conducted in Europe (37.26 %) and North America (27.45 %). Country-wise analysis demonstrated that the majority of the studies were carried out in the United States (23.53 %) and the Netherlands (11.77 %). There was limited research conducted in other regions, especially in Oceania (1.96 %). Spatial distribution analysis revealed that the wild carrot was reported in around 100 countries. In New Zealand the North Island has a higher incidence of wild carrot invasion than the South Island. The findings indicated that the wild carrot is becoming more adaptable to climate change, compromising the genetic purity of cultivated carrots due to pollen flow from wild to cultivated carrots. Therefore, ongoing research will be helpful in developing sustainable weed management strategies and predicting potential geographical invasiveness. This study provides a guide for scientists, policymakers, industrialists, and farmers to control wild carrots and produce genetically pure commercial seeds amid climate change.Item Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa.(Springer Nature Limited, 2020-08-28) Smith MW; Willis T; Alfieri L; James WHM; Trigg MA; Yamazaki D; Hardy AJ; Bisselink B; De Roo A; Macklin MG; Thomas CJContinental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.Item Cultural tightness does not predict action on the collective threat of climate change.(Elsevier B.V., 2021-05-05) Drummond A; Hall LC; Palmer MA; Hughes J; Sauer JDItem Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change - A panel data analysis(Elsevier BV, 2023-09-20) Godwin A; McGill C; Ward A; Sofkova-Bobcheva S; Pieralli S; Paoletti ENew Zealand is a major producer of carrot seeds globally. Carrots are an important nutritional crop for human consumption. Since the growth and development of carrot seed crops mainly depend on climatic factors, seed yield is extremely susceptible to climate change. This modeling study was undertaken using a panel data approach to determine the impact of the atmospheric conditions (proxied by maximum and minimum temperature) and precipitation during the critical growth stages for seed production in carrot, viz., juvenile phase, vernalization phase, floral development phase, and flowering and seed development phase on carrot seed yield. The panel dataset was created using cross-sections from 28 locations within the Canterbury and Hawke's Bay regions of New Zealand that cultivate carrot seed crops and time series from 2005 to 2022. Pre-diagnostic tests were performed to test the model assumptions, and a fixed effect model was selected subsequently. There was significant (p < 0.01) variability in temperature and rainfall throughout different growing phases, except for precipitation at the vernalization phase. The highest rate of changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation were recorded during the vernalization phase (+0.254 °C per year), floral development phase (+0.18 °C per year), and juvenile phase (-6.508 mm per year), respectively. Based on marginal effect analysis, the highest significant influence of minimum (187.724 kg/ha of seed yield decrease for each 1 °C increment) and maximum temperature (1 °C rise increases seed yield by 132.728 kg/ha), and precipitation (1 mm increment of rainfall decreases the seed yield by 1.745 kg/ha) on carrot seed yield were reported at vernalization, and flowering and seed development, respectively. The minimum and maximum temperatures have a higher marginal effect on carrot seed production. Analysis of the panel data demonstrates that the production of carrot seeds will be vulnerable to climatic change.Item Holstein Friesian dairy cattle edited for diluted coat color as a potential adaptation to climate change(BioMed Central Ltd, 2021-11-26) Laible G; Cole S-A; Brophy B; Wei J; Leath S; Jivanji S; Littlejohn MD; Wells DNBACKGROUND: High-producing Holstein Friesian dairy cattle have a characteristic black and white coat, often with large proportions of black. Compared to a light coat color, black absorbs more solar radiation which is a contributing factor to heat stress in cattle. To better adapt dairy cattle to rapidly warming climates, we aimed to lighten their coat color by genome editing. RESULTS: Using gRNA/Cas9-mediated editing, we introduced a three bp deletion in the pre-melanosomal protein 17 gene (PMEL) proposed as causative variant for the semi-dominant color dilution phenotype observed in Galloway and Highland cattle. Calves generated from cells with homozygous edits revealed a strong color dilution effect. Instead of the characteristic black and white markings of control calves generated from unedited cells, the edited calves displayed a novel grey and white coat pattern. CONCLUSION: This, for the first time, verified the causative nature of the PMEL mutation for diluting the black coat color in cattle. Although only one of the calves was healthy at birth and later succumbed to a naval infection, the study showed the feasibility of generating such edited animals with the possibility to dissect the effects of the introgressed edit and other interfering allelic variants that might exist in individual cattle and accurately determine the impact of only the three bp change.Item Climate change and geopolitical conflicts: The role of ESG readiness(Elsevier Ltd, 2024-02-27) Alam A; Banna H; Alam AW; Bhuiyan MBU; Mokhtar NB; Evans JMThis study examines the relationship between climate change vulnerability and geopolitical risk using data on 42 countries from 1995 to 2021. Utilising two distinct indices, the climate vulnerability index (CVI) and the country-specific geopolitical risk (CGPR) indices, we find that countries with high vulnerability to climate change are more likely to experience geopolitical conflicts. Further analysis reveals that country-level overall economic, social, and governance (ESG) readiness significantly mitigates this detrimental effect. This moderation is mainly attributed to the social and governance readiness measures. Additional tests indicate that the mitigating role of ESG is more pronounced for countries with high institutional governance. These results remain resilient through a set of endogeneity tests using matched samples of countries generated through propensity score matching (PSM) estimation. Our findings suggest that addressing climate vulnerability is crucial to promoting global peace and geopolitical stability.Item Anthropological engagement with the Anthropocene: A critical review(Bergahn Journals, 1/09/2015) Gibson H; Venkateswar SThe new geological interval, the Anthropocene, or the ‘era of the human’ refers to the planetary scale of anthropogenic influences on the composition and function of the Earth’s ecosystems and all life forms (Steffen, Crutzen & McNeil 2007). Socio-political and geographic responses frame the unfolding but uneven topographies of climate change (Crate 2011; Moore 2010; Lazrus 2012), while efforts to adapt and mitigate its impacts extend across the social and natural sciences. This paper reviews anthropology’s evolving engagement with the Anthropocene, contemplative of the multifarious approaches to research. The growing body of contemporary thinking (Latour 2005, 2013; Haraway 2008, 2011) encompasses the emergence of multispecies ethnographic research (Kirksey and Helmreich 2010; Fuentes 2010; Tsing 2012; Paxon 2010) highlighting the entanglements of humans with other life forms. Such new ontological considerations are reflected in Kohn’s (2007) “Anthropology of Life,” ethnographic research that moves beyond an isolated focus on the human to consider other life processes and entities as research participants. Examples of critical engagement discussed include anthropology beyond disciplinary borders (Kelman & West 2009), queries writing in the Anthropocene (Rose 2009), and anthropology of climate change (Crate 2011). Although not exhaustive of contemporary anthropology, we demonstrate the diverse positions of anthropologists within this juncture in relation to our central trope of entanglements threaded through our discussion in this review.