Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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    Are native shrubs a sustainable alternative to radiata pine on steep slopes? Insights using bioeconomic model for hill country farms in New Zealand
    (Taylor and Francis Group on behalf of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 2025-05-07) Wangui JC; Millner JP; Kenyon PR; Pain SJ; Tozer PR
    Limited data on native shrubs has hindered direct comparisons with pine radiata as afforestation options for steep slopes on New Zealand hill country sheep and beef farms. This study updated a native shrub sub-model (NSM) with new research data and developed a radiata pine sub-model (RPM) for integration into a bioeconomic model using STELLA Architect. The model assessed asynchronous afforestation of 10% of effective farm area with either option, comparing impacts on feed supply, sheep dynamics, and farm economics. NSM was updated with growth curve, foliage biomass, and carbon stock data from two New Zealand sites. RPM used literature for growth curve, carbon, and log production data. Simulations included a pasture-only (base) and afforestation with either species at 10% and 20% planting rates. Native shrubs reduced feed supply by 2.5% and 4.0%, while radiata pine reduced it by 7.0% and 7.4% at 10% and 20% planting rates. Reduced feed led to smaller flocks and lower cash flow. Radiata pine generated surplus through carbon and log income, offsetting reduced sheep flock cash flow, while native shrubs did not. Carbon prices of 64.2 and137.4 NZD/NZU would be needed for viability in the best- and worst-case scenarios. Native shrubs are potential land use option on steep slopes but require policy intervention to lower establishment costs and carbon prices.
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    Effects of spatial data resolution on the modelling and mapping of soil organic carbon content in hill country grassland landscapes
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of British Society of Soil Science, 2024-01-19) Tran DX; Dominati E; Lowry J; Mackay A; Vibart R; Pearson D; Devantier B; Noakes E
    Limited use has been made of spatially explicit modelling of soil organic carbon (SOC) in highly complex farmed landscapes to advance current mapping efforts. This study aimed to address this gap in knowledge by evaluating the spatial prediction of SOC content in the 0–75 mm soil depth in hill country landscapes in New Zealand (NZ) using point-based training data, along with topographic covariates and Sentinel 2 spectral band ratios using an automated set of machine learning (AutoML) tools in ArcGIS. Subsequently, it also focused on quantifying the effects of spatial data resolution (i.e., 1, 8, 15, and 25 m) in terms of predicted map accuracy. Farmlets with contrasting phosphorus fertilizer and sheep grazing histories located at the Ballantrae Hill Country Research Station, NZ were selected to conduct the research. Six candidate algorithms incorporated in the AutoML tools (i.e., XGBoost, LightGBM, linear regression, decision trees, extra trees, random forest) and ensemble model were utilized to model the spatial pattern of SOC content. The results show that the ensemble model that combine predictions of various algorithms applied for 1 m data resolution enables the highest performance and accuracy (i.e., R2 =.76, RMSE = 0.66%). Among the predictive variables used in the model, slope, wetness, and topographic position indices were found to be the most important topographical features that explain SOC patterns in the study area. Inclusion of spectral indices derived from remote sensing, including surface soil moisture and clay minerals ratio, made further improvement to the SOC content prediction. The study reveals that a decrease in the resolution of the geospatial data does not substantively affect the mean SOC content estimation of a farm-scale modelling. However, using coarser resolution data reduces the ability of the model to predict changes in the spatial pattern of SOC content across a hill country grassland landscape.
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    Bioeconomic Modelling to Assess the Impacts of Using Native Shrubs on the Marginal Portions of the Sheep and Beef Hill Country Farms in New Zealand (article)
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-10-18) Wangui JC; Kenyon PR; Tozer PR; Millner JP; Pain SJ
    New Zealand hill country sheep and beef farms contain land of various slope classes. The steepest slopes have the lowest pasture productivity and livestock carrying capacity and are the most vulnerable to soil mass movements. A potential management option for these areas of a farm is the planting of native shrubs which are browsable and provide erosion control, biodiversity, and a source of carbon credits. A bioeconomic whole farm model was developed by adding a native shrub sub-model to an existing hill country sheep and beef enterprise model to assess the impacts on feed supply, flock dynamics, and farm economics of converting 10% (56.4 hectares) of the entire farm, focusing on the steep slope areas, to native shrubs over a 50-year period. Two native shrub planting rates of 10% and 20% per year of the allocated area were compared to the status quo of no (0%) native shrub plantings. Mean annual feed supply dropped by 6.6% and 7.1% causing a reduction in flock size by 10.9% and 11.6% for the 10% and 20% planting rates, respectively, relative to 0% native shrub over the 50 years. Native shrub expenses exceeded carbon income for both planting rates and, together with reduced income from sheep flock, resulted in lower mean annual discounted total sheep enterprise cash operating surplus for the 10% (New Zealand Dollar (NZD) 20,522) and 20% (NZD 19,532) planting scenarios compared to 0% native shrubs (NZD 22,270). All planting scenarios had positive Net Present Value (NPV) and was highest for the 0% native shrubs compared to planting rates. Break-even carbon price was higher than the modelled carbon price (NZD 32/ New Zealand Emission Unit (NZU)) for both planting rates. Combined, this data indicates planting native shrubs on 10% of the farm at the modelled planting rates and carbon price would result in a reduction in farm sheep enterprise income. It can be concluded from the study that a higher carbon price above the break-even can make native shrubs attractive in the farming system.
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    In Vitro Fermentation of Browsable Native Shrubs in New Zealand
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2022-08-10) Wangui JC; Millner JP; Kenyon PR; Tozer PR; Morel PCH; Pain SJ
    Information on the nutritive value and in vitro fermentation characteristics of native shrubs in New Zealand is scant. This is despite their potential as alternatives to exotic trees and shrubs for supplementary fodder, and their mitigation of greenhouse gases and soil erosion on hill-country sheep and beef farms. The objectives of this study were to measure the in vitro fermentation gas production, predict the parameters of the in vitro fermentation kinetics and estimate the in vitro fermentation of volatile fatty acids (VFA), microbial biomass (MBM), and greenhouse gases of four native shrubs ( Coprosma robusta, Griselinia littoralis, Hoheria populnea, and Pittosporum crassifolium) and an exotic fodder tree species, Salix schwerinii. The total in vitro gas production was higher (p < 0.05) for the natives than for the S. schwerinii. A prediction using the single-pool model resulted in biologically incorrect negative in vitro total gas production from the immediately soluble fraction of the native shrubs. However, the dual pool model better predicted the in vitro total gas production and was in alignment with the measured in vitro fermentation end products. The in vitro VFA and greenhouse gas production from the fermentation of leaf and stem material was higher (p < 0.05), and the MBM lower (p < 0.05), for the native shrubs compared to the S. schwerinii. The lower in vitro total gas production, VFA, and greenhouse gases production and higher MBM of the S. schwerinii may be explained by the presence of condensed tannins (CT), although this was not measured and requires further study. In conclusion, the results from this study suggest that when consumed by ruminant livestock, browsable native shrubs can provide adequate energy and microbial protein, and that greenhouse-gas production from these species is within the ranges reported for typical New Zealand pastures.
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    Determining the Impact of Hogget Breeding Performance on Profitability under a Fixed Feed Supply Scenario in New Zealand
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-05-01) Farrell LJ; Kenyon PR; Tozer PR; Morris ST
    Hoggets (ewe lambs aged 4 to 16 months) can be bred from approximately 8 months of age for potentially increased flock production and profit, however most New Zealand hoggets are not presented for breeding and their reproductive success is highly variable. Bio-economic modelling was used to analyse flock productivity and profit in four sets of scenarios for ewe flocks with varying mature ewe (FWR) and hogget (HWR) weaning rate combinations. Firstly, hogget breeding was identified to become profitable when break-even HWRs of 26% and 28% were achieved for flocks with FWRs of 135% and 150%, respectively. Secondly, relatively smaller improvements in FWR were identified to increase profit to the same level as larger improvements in HWR. Thirdly, a high performing flock with FWR and HWR both ≥ the 90th percentile currently achieved commercially, was the most profitable flock modelled. Fourthly, a FWR was identified with which a farmer not wishing to breed hoggets could have the same profit as a farmer with a flock achieving current industry average FWR and HWR. Overall, the relative profit levels achieved by the modelled flocks suggest that more farmers should consider breeding their hoggets, though improvements in FWRs should be prioritised.Hoggets (ewe lambs aged 4 to 16 months) can be bred from approximately 8 months of age for potentially increased flock production and profit, however most New Zealand hoggets are not presented for breeding and their reproductive success is highly variable. Bio-economic modelling was used to analyse flock productivity and profit in four sets of scenarios for ewe flocks with varying mature ewe (FWR) and hogget (HWR) weaning rate combinations. Firstly, hogget breeding was identified to become profitable when break-even HWRs of 26% and 28% were achieved for flocks with FWRs of 135% and 150%, respectively. Secondly, relatively smaller improvements in FWR were identified to increase profit to the same level as larger improvements in HWR. Thirdly, a high performing flock with FWR and HWR both ≥ the 90th percentile currently achieved commercially, was the most profitable flock modelled. Fourthly, a FWR was identified with which a farmer not wishing to breed hoggets could have the same profit as a farmer with a flock achieving current industry average FWR and HWR. Overall, the relative profit levels achieved by the modelled flocks suggest that more farmers should consider breeding their hoggets, though improvements in FWRs should be prioritised.
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    A Framework for Reviewing Silvopastoralism: A New Zealand Hill Country Case Study
    (MDPI (Basel, Switzerland), 2021-12-14) Mackay-Smith TH; Burkitt L; Reid J; López IF; Phillips C
    Silvopastoral systems can be innovative solutions to agricultural environmental degradation, especially in hilly and mountainous regions. A framework that expresses the holistic nature of silvopastoral systems is required so research directions can be unbiased and informed. This paper presents a novel framework that relates the full range of known silvopastoral outcomes to bio-physical tree attributes, and uses it to generate research priorities for a New Zealand hill country case study. Current research is reviewed and compared for poplar (Populus spp.), the most commonly planted silvopastoral tree in New Zealand hill country, and kānuka (Kunzea spp.), a novel and potentially promising native alternative. The framework highlights the many potential benefits of kānuka, many of which are underappreciated hill country silvopastoral outcomes, and draws attention to the specific outcome research gaps for poplar, despite their widespread use. The framework provides a formalised tool for reviewing and generating research priorities for silvopastoral trees, and provides a clear example of how it can be used to inform research directions in silvopastoral systems, globally.