Journal Articles

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/7915

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    Nutrient-adequate diets with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions or price are the least acceptable—insights from dietary optimisation modelling using the iOTA model®
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 2025-08-01) Tavan M; Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Hill JP; McNabb WC; Das A
    Over the past decade, there has been an increasing interest in the environmental sustainability of diets because food systems are responsible for a third of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). However, less attention has been paid to the nutrient adequacy, consumer acceptability, and affordability of such diets. Such knowledge is particularly scarce in New Zealand, where approximately 40% of adults and 20% of children may live under severe to moderate food insecurity. The iOTA Model® is a country-specific dietary optimisation tool designed to fill this gap by bringing the various aspects of diet sustainability together and providing evidence-based knowledge on not just the environmental impact of food but also its economic and nutritional sustainability. The iOTA Model® was constructed using mixed integer linear programming by integrating New Zealand-specific dietary data. Features such as digestibility and bioavailability considerations have been incorporated as part of the iOTA Model®, allowing for a more accurate estimation of nutrient supply. The model is available as an open-access tool and allows users to explore various dimensions of a sustainable diet. Eight optimisation scenarios, along with baseline diets, were investigated for adult males and females in New Zealand. Results showed that reducing dietary GHGE or price by approximately 80% was possible while meeting nutrient adequacy requirements. However, such diets deviated substantially from the baseline eating patterns, indicating lower consumer acceptability, and only included a limited variety of foods. On the contrary, diets with minimum deviation from baseline remained realistic while adhering to nutrient targets and reducing GHGE by 10 and 30% in female and male consumers aged 19–30 years, respectively, and weekly price remained below the baseline. Expansion of the model to additional countries and its open-access nature will allow independent dietary sustainability research through optimisation.
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    Analysis of global nutrient gaps and their potential to be closed through redistribution and increased supply
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-08-09) Fletcher AJ; Lozano R; McNabb WC; Van Der Wielen N
    Global food systems are crucial for sustaining life on Earth. Although estimates suggest that the current production system can provide enough food and nutrients for everyone, equitable distribution remains challenging. Understanding global nutrient distribution is vital for addressing disparities and creating effective solutions for the present and future. This study analyzes global nutrient supply changes to address inadequacies in certain populations using the existing DELTA Model®, which uses aggregates of global food production to estimate nutrient adequacy. By examining the 2020 global food commodity and nutrient distribution, we project future food production in 2050 needs to ensure global adequate nutrition. Our findings reveal that while some nutrients appear to be adequately supplied on a global scale, many countries face national insufficiencies (% supply below the population reference intake) in essential vitamins and minerals, such as vitamins A, B12, B2, potassium, and iron. Closing these gaps will require significant increases in nutrient supply. For example, despite global protein supply surpassing basic needs for the 2050 population, significant shortages persist in many countries due to distribution variations. A 1% increase in global protein supply, specifically targeting countries with insufficiencies, could address the observed 2020 gaps. However, without consumption pattern changes, a 26% increase in global protein production is required by 2050 due to population growth. In this study, a methodology was developed, applying multi-decade linear convergence to sufficiency values at the country level. This approach facilitates a more realistic assessment of future needs within global food system models, such as the DELTA Model®, transitioning from idealized production scenarios to realistic projections. In summary, our study emphasizes understanding global nutrient distribution and adjusting minimum global nutrient supply targets to tackle country-level inequality. Incorporating these insights into global food balance models can improve projections and guide policy decisions for sustainable, healthy diets worldwide.
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    Diet affordability: a key dimension in the assessment of sustainable food systems and healthy diets
    (Frontiers Media S.A., 2024-08-12) Chungchunlam SMS; Moughan PJ; Raubenheimer D
    A promulgated global shift toward a plant-based diet is largely in response to a perceived negative environmental impact of animal food production, but the nutritional adequacy and economic implications of plant-sourced sustainable healthy dietary patterns need to be considered. This paper reviews recent modeling studies using Linear Programming to determine the respective roles of animal- and plant-sourced foods in developing a least-cost diet in the United States and New Zealand. In both economies, least-cost diets were found to include animal-based foods, such as milk, eggs, fish, and seafood, to meet the energy and nutrient requirements of healthy adults at the lowest retail cost. To model a solely plant-based least-cost diet, the prevailing costs of all animal-sourced foods had to be increased by 1.1 to 11.5 times their original retail prices. This led to the inclusion of fortified plant-based foods, such as fortified soymilk, and a plant-based diet that was considerably (34–45%) more costly. The first-limiting essential nutrients were mostly the vitamins and minerals, with special focus on pantothenic acid, zinc, and vitamin B-12, when transitioning from an animal- and plant-containing least-cost diet to a plant-only based least-cost diet. Modeled least-cost diets based on contemporary food costs include animal-sourced foods, at least for developed high-income US and NZ food economies, and potentially for developing low- and middle-income countries, such as Indonesia. Modeling of least-cost diets that consist exclusively of plant-based foods is feasible, but at a higher daily diet cost, and these diets are often close to limiting for several key nutrients. Diet affordability, as a key dimension of sustainable healthy diets, and the respective economic roles of animal- and plant-sourced foods need to be considered.
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    Using Linear Programming to Determine the Role of Plant- and Animal-Sourced Foods in Least-Cost, Nutritionally Adequate Diets for Adults
    (Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society for Nutrition, 2021-11) Chungchunlam SMS; Garrick DP; Moughan PJ
    BACKGROUND: The respective roles of plant- and animal-sourced foods in sustainable healthy diets for humans remain unclear. Nutritional quality and the monetary cost of diets are key criteria among others for sustainable food production. OBJECTIVE: Linear programming (LP) was used to determine the composition of nutritionally adequate dietary patterns formulated at the lowest cost. The hypothesis tested was that animal-sourced foods would be included in least-cost diets due to their high density of particular essential nutrients. METHODS: The LP modeling work was based on eating patterns, retail food prices (2020), and the daily energy (11,150 kJ, 2665 kcal) and essential nutrient requirements (29 nutrients in total) of a reference adult in New Zealand (NZ). The LP modeling approach is publicly and freely available to readily illustrate the change in dietary profiles and daily diet cost, in the simulation of changes in energy and nutrient requirements, and price fluctuations within food groups. RESULTS: A nutrient-adequate, least-cost dietary pattern formulated from 883 foods, with a daily cost of NZ $3.23, included both animal- and plant-based foods. The nutrients found to be equally first-limiting were biotin, calcium, molybdenum, potassium, selenium, vitamin A, pantothenic acid, and vitamin C. When a dietary scenario with no animal-sourced foods was modeled, by increasing the retail prices of animal-sourced foods by 1.05 to 10.3 times, the daily cost of this plant-only dietary pattern was NZ $4.34. Additional nutrients, such as zinc, vitamin B-12, and vitamin D, were met at their daily minimum required levels. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary patterns formulated at the lowest cost and meeting the daily minimum requirements for energy and essential nutrients for an adult in New Zealand relied on foods sourced from animals and plants.
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    Use of the DELTA Model to Understand the Food System and Global Nutrition
    (Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society for Nutrition, 2021-10) Smith NW; Fletcher AJ; Dave LA; Hill JP; McNabb WC
    BACKGROUND: Increasing attention is being directed at the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of the global food system. However, a key aspect of a sustainable food system should be its ability to deliver nutrition to the global population. Quantifying nutrient adequacy with current tools is challenging. OBJECTIVE: To produce a computational model illustrating the nutrient adequacy of current and proposed global food systems. METHODS: The DELTA Model was constructed using global food commodity balance sheet data, alongside demographic and nutrient requirement data from UN and European Food Safety Authority sources. It also includes nutrient bioavailability considerations for protein, the indispensable amino acids, iron, and zinc, sourced from scientific literature. RESULTS: The DELTA Model calculates global per capita nutrient availability under conditions of equal distribution and identifies areas of nutrient deficiency for various food system scenarios. Modeling the 2018 global food system showed that it supplied insufficient calcium (64% of demographically weighted target intake) and vitamin E (69%), despite supplying sufficient macronutrients. Several future scenarios were modeled, including variations in waste; scaling up current food production for the 2030 global population; plant-based food production systems; and removing sugar crops from the global food system. Each of these scenarios fell short of meeting requirements for multiple nutrients. These results emphasize the need for a balanced approach in the design of future food systems. CONCLUSIONS: Nutrient adequacy must be at the forefront of the sustainable food system debate. The DELTA Model was designed for both experts and nonexperts to inform this debate as to what may be possible, practical, and optimal for our food system. The model results strongly suggest that both plant and animal foods are necessary to achieve global nutrition. The model is freely available for public use so that anyone can explore current and simulated global food systems.