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Item C-DREEM: A framework for estimating the cost of earthquake-damaged buildings – A New Zealand study(2025-09-01) Kahandawa Appuhamillage R; Domingo N; Chawynski G; Uma SRNatural hazards created by earthquakes require an accurate post-earthquake cost estimation mechanism on the road to recovery. However, there are no identifiable accurate post-earthquake cost estimation mechanisms. This has led to major deviations between the initial and final construction costs. For example, the estimated cost of repair of the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence changed from 41 billion NZD to $53 billion NZD (adjusted for inflation). Previous research identified eleven factors that specifically impact post-earthquake cost estimation. The recognisable literature was unable to identify a post-earthquake cost estimation model that considers these factors. Therefore, this research aims to fill this gap by developing and validating the cost of damage repair (including refurbishment) and the Earthquake Estimation Model (C-DREEM) framework. The C-DREEM framework was developed based on previous literature and inputs from a development team that included eleven industry professionals. The developed framework was then verified through a focus group interview consisting of nine professionals. The research developed and verified a framework for cost estimation for earthquake damage repair work, C-DREEM, that impacts earthquake damage repair work. C-DREEM incorporates the factors affecting post-earthquake cost estimation and improves the speed and accuracy of post-earthquake cost estimations for damage repair work.Item Modelling earthquake hazard preparedness during recovery in Nepal : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Emergency Management at Massey University, School of Psychology, Wellington, New Zealand(Massey University, 2018) Adhikari, MinaPreparedness is a vital component of disaster risk reduction (DRR), but more often communities fail to prepare for disasters adequately. Theory-based approaches have found prominence for helping to identify the factors that drive preparedness behaviour of the population. However, there has been a limited empirical validation of these theories of preparedness in post-disaster recovery contexts. Further, their application has been mostly limited to culturally individualistic and developed countries, and there is a great need for their application in the setting of developing countries where disaster impacts are often most severe. This study, therefore, aimed to investigate the preparedness of a population in a post-disaster recovery scenario in a developing country. A mixed method research design with a household questionnaire survey (n=306) followed by a follow-up qualitative study driven by semi-structured interviews (n=11) was adopted to conduct this study. The outcomes of the study include 1) development of a conceptual model predicting earthquake hazard preparedness after reviewing the existing theories and models applied in the setting of natural hazards; 2) empirical validation of the proposed conceptual model predictions by analysing quantitative data collected through household survey conducted in two villages in Dhading district, of central Nepal; 3) identification of factors and processes underlying people’s decisions related to recovery efforts and preparedness to future events in a post-disaster context derived by developing a hierarchical value map from the qualitative interview data. The quantitative findings from the survey data justify the capability of the proposed model to assess the interaction of individual, community and institutional factors to predict household’s intentions to prepare in a post-disaster recovery scenario. Furthermore, the qualitative findings support the quantitative findings and provide evidence for the influence of socio-cultural values of Nepalese society on household preparedness decision-making during post-disaster recovery. The qualitative findings also provide evidence of additional predictors those need to be considered in future modelling of preparedness. Further, the qualitative findings show that people’s preparedness decisions and recovery efforts are influenced by personal beliefs, community efforts, and community and institutional collaborations during the post-disaster recovery period. Understanding of population preparedness in a post-disaster recovery is limited in both developed and developing countries. Thus this research makes a significant contribution to the body of knowledge on population preparedness in the post-disaster context in a developing country. The findings further contribute to any future study on developing theoretical foundations for the preparedness of populations in both developed and developing countries. The application of the outcomes of this study is evident as it is already cited for its theoretical, and methodological rigour.Item Understanding the post disaster effects on mothers after the 2010 and 2011 Christchurch earthquakes in New Zealand : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Social Work at Massey University, Palmerston North, Aotearoa, New Zealand(Massey University, 2017) Jennings, AngelinaThe city of Christchurch in the South Island of New Zealand experienced two large earthquakes in September 2010 and February 2011. The most destructive of these earthquakes was in February which resulted in 185 casualties. The purpose of this study was to explore the post disaster experiences of mothers and consider factors which helped or hindered their recovery. A qualitative study was utilised in order to understand the post disaster experiences of mothers and their coping resources. Data was collected via semistructured interviews with six mothers, using open-ended questions, which focused on personal, environmental and psychological impacts of the earthquakes to understand their experience. Topics included the immediate experience of the event, factors which impacted on their recovery, their community experience and roles in the wider recovery effort. Data was analysed using thematic analysis. Key findings were established from themes within the research which underpinned experiences for mothers; these included care of children, the importance of social networks, the role of the community and mothers’ evolving role in the wider recovery effort. Core characteristics of resilience, such as adaptability, flexibility, optimism and coping skills, were portrayed by participants, which became paramount in supporting their post disaster recovery. These findings underpinned practice approaches for social workers when working with mothers post disaster and highlighted the significance of the social workers’ role in promoting the involvement of women within their community and in future disaster management planning and discussions.Item The Canterbury tales : an insider's lessons and reflections from the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence to inform better public communication models : a thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in English and Media Studies at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand(Massey University, 2017) McBride, Sara KellyThis research evaluates the public earthquake preparedness communication before the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (2010-present) and examines communication learnings to create recommendations for improvements in implementation for these campaigns in future. The research comes from an “insider” perspective from someone who worked on these campaigns in Canterbury before the earthquakes. In this research I use this insider lens to analyse the Q-Files booklets, developed by the Public Education Public Information group (PEPI) and coordinated by the Canterbury Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Group, both groups in which I worked professionally before the earthquakes. These booklets aimed to communicate the geological hazards and risks in Canterbury to persuade publics to prepare. For my analysis, I developed a “best practice matrix”, derived from the most relevant literature, to determine how closely these booklets aligned to best-practice academic research. I also used readability tests and word counts to triangulate the data. I interpreted that the Q-Files were overly long, jargon-laden text filled with little positive outcome expectancy messages, and would have failed to persuade most people that earthquakes were a real threat in Canterbury. Paradoxically, it is likely these booklets created fatalism in publics who read them. While the overall intention was positive, to scientifically explain geological risks to encourage the public to prepare for these events, my analysis identified that the implementation could have been greatly improved. After summarising my findings, I shared these insights with my community of practice and found that many of my former colleagues shared with me their frustrations, concerns and disappointments with not only the Q-Files but the overall management of public preparedness communication within Canterbury. Finally, I reflect on what it means to have been part of the development of a failed risk communication campaign. I interpret that scientism was the fundamental belief system inspiring the PEPI group in Canterbury to create the Q-Files. I argue that the PEPI group created echo-chamber-like effects, supporting and reflecting their own belief systems in their public communication. The group’s self-containment led to the creation of documents filled with jargon, gobbledygook and scientificism. Based on my findings, I highlight areas for improvement in strategic approaches for more successful campaigns in future as well as potential research pathways.Item Teenagers' perspectives on the Canterbury earthquakes : an insight into their needs and experiences : a thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Clinical Psychology, Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand(Massey University, 2015) Pine, Nicola StaceyNatural disasters inflict physical, psychosocial, and economic impacts on individuals and their communities. Although a substantial number of disaster survivors are teenagers (13-19 years), this population group has not been widely investigated, especially regarding their views on their post-disaster needs and received supports. Such information would be important when planning post-disaster supports for current and future disaster-exposed teenagers. The aim of this research therefore, was to explore teenagers’ experiences and retrospective views of their needs, supports, and recovery following the Canterbury, New Zealand earthquakes. The first study surveyed 398 Christchurch secondary school students (aged 16-18 years [male = 169; female = 229]) who had experienced at least one of the major Canterbury earthquakes between September 2010 and June 2011. The survey’s purpose was to obtain an overview of teenagers’ experiences (including their needs and supports received), using both qualitative and quantitative data. Content analysis of this data revealed nine overall themes, including: physical basics, secondary stressors, social support, psychological impact, coping, school, support figures, gender, and recovery. Decile 2 school participants reported a need for physical basics significantly more than deciles 3, 9 and 10, and decile 10 reported a need for social support significantly more than decile 2. With gender, females reported a need for social support significantly more than males, and males reported a need for physical basics significantly more than females. Also, participants reported that their parents/caregivers understood their needs better than their siblings and friends, and their teachers were of greater help to them following the earthquakes compared to other students in their class. The second study extended the enquiry and involved six focus groups, each containing three to six students aged 16-18 years (male = 13; female = 18). Findings from the first study informed these focus group discussions, the aims of which were to gain deeper insights into disaster-exposed teenagers’ experiences, needs, and supports. The discussions were transcribed and analysed via thematic analysis. This analysis revealed seven major areas of importance, including participants’ advice for future planning and six others: individual, family, school, community, national and international. The latter six areas were incorporated into an ecological model combined with a timeline spanning from 2010 till 2013. The model demonstrated a number of notable points - for instance, immediately after the earthquakes many of the participants’ most important needs was to be in the presence of family, to know that family members were safe, and to receive comfort from them; however, three years later, participants’ concern had shifted to the rebuild of their city and their need for not only the pace to quicken, but also for youthfocused areas to be built (e.g., for recreational and leisure activities). The main recommendations from the research include: addressing acute post-disaster psychological responses early on and arranging preventative interventions; incorporating parental mental health support into youth-focused interventions; individually tailoring supports that address differences in gender, living conditions, and damage; encouraging youth to talk but not forcing them; having schools resume structured routines as soon as possible; providing psychoeducation to teachers, parents and guardians regarding typical disaster reactions and coping strategies for youth; and providing teenagers with accurate information. It is also recommended that communities provide or facilitate entertainment for youth post-disaster; that they organise youth-focused volunteer groups; involve youth in rebuild consultations; commence the rebuild of a disaster-struck city as soon as possible, and maintain gains in progress; distribute important information in multiple languages; and try to ensure that media coverage maintains a balance between both positive and negative content. Possible areas for future research include a deeper investigation into the experiences of disaster-exposed international students, the impact of the duration and permanency of relocation, and longitudinal studies into the recovery and adaptation of youth.Item Getting through : children and youth post-disaster effective coping and adaptation in the context of the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010-1012 : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology at Massey University, Wellington, Aotearoa/New Zealand(Massey University, 2016) Mooney, Maureen FrancesThe study aims to understand how children cope effectively with a disaster, and to identify resources and processes that promote effective coping and adaptation. The context is the 2010–2012 Canterbury earthquake disaster in New Zealand. This qualitative study explores coping strategies in forty-two children from three age groups: five, nine and fifteen year-olds (Time 1). It draws on data from semi-structured interviews with the children, their parents, teachers and principals of five schools in Canterbury. Two schools in Wellington, a region with similar seismic risk, served as a useful comparison group. All children were interviewed twenty months after the first earthquake (T1) during an ongoing aftershock sequence, and six selected children from Christchurch were interviewed again (Time Two), three years after the initial earthquake. Findings have identified multiple inter-connected coping strategies and multi-level resources in the children and in their immediate contexts; these were fundamental to their post-disaster adaptation. Children who coped effectively used a repertoire of diverse coping strategies adapted to challenges, and in a culturally appropriate and flexible manner. Coping strategies included: emotional regulation, problem-solving, positive reframing, helping others, seeking support, and ―getting on‖. Although emotional regulation was important in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake, children adapting positively used heterogeneous combinations of coping strategies and resources. Proximal others provided coping assistance through modelling and coaching. Intra and interpersonal resources, such as self-efficacy and supportive parental and teacher relationships that promoted children‘s effective coping are identified and discussed. Children who coped effectively with the disaster appeared to have a larger coping repertoire and more practise in use than children in the Wellington comparison group, who were coping essentially with age appropriate challenges. By Time Two, all children in the cohort reported coping effectively, that they were stronger from their experience and had shifted their focus so that their coping skills were now employed for everyday challenges and for moving on with their lives, rather than focused on managing disaster events. Findings suggest that children can be coached to learn effective coping. Key recommendations are made for effective interventions for children and caregivers around children‘s effective coping and adaptation, and avenues for future research are detailed.Item Increasing household preparedness for earthquakes : understanding how individuals make meaning of earthquake information and how this relates to preparedness : a thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand(Massey University, 2012) Becker, Julia SusanNew Zealand’s susceptibility to experiencing damaging earthquakes makes managing the associated risk a societal imperative. A prominent component of earthquake risk management is fostering household earthquake preparedness. This involves encouraging people to acquire survival items (e.g. food, water, torches, and other essential items), implement mitigation measures (e.g. retrofit buildings), make emergency plans, learn survival skills and engage in socially-based preparedness activities. Despite considerable effort and expenditure incurred by emergency management to encourage such activities, levels of overall preparedness remain low in New Zealand. This identifies a need for more effective earthquake education programmes. To develop more effective programmes, it is important to understand how people make sense of hazards and make decisions about how to manage the associated risk. One particular gap in current understanding relates to how individuals render earthquake hazard and preparedness information meaningful and how this influences actual preparedness. In particular, questions remain about how individual, community and societal factors interact to influence how people interpret risk and decide whether to prepare or not. This thesis explores the earthquake information meaning-making and preparedness processes. A series of qualitative interviews using grounded theory methodology was undertaken in 2008 with household residents in three New Zealand locations at risk of earthquakes. The interviews explored personal, community and societal influences on how people interpret and impose meaning on earthquake information and how the outcome of this process relates to undertaking actual preparedness actions. Three main types of information were identified: passive; interactive; and experiential information. Each type of information makes unique contributions to the interpretation and preparedness process. Passive information has a more restricted effect, and interactive and experiential information a wider-ranging effect. People utilise all these types of information when interpreting and making meaning of hazard and preparedness issues. Consequently, future earthquake education programmes should accommodate passive, interactive and experiential information in their design and implementation. In making meaning of information, and making decisions about whether to prepare or not, a number of aspects were found to be important to the overall process including: raising awareness and knowledge of earthquakes and preparedness; understanding earthquake consequences; stimulating thought and discussion; developing skills; information seeking; salient beliefs; emotions and feelings; societal influences; intentions to prepare; and resource issues. Key societal influences on meaning-making and preparedness include: community (community participation, sense of community); leadership; responsibility (responsibility for preparing, responsibility for others); social norms; trust; and societal requirements. Earthquake education programmes also need to take such factors into account in their design.Item Statistical models for earthquakes incorporating ancillary data : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand(Massey University, 2010) Wang, TingThis thesis consists of two parts. The first part proposes a new model – the Markov-modulated Hawkes process with stepwise decay (MMHPSD) to investigate the seismicity rate. The MMHPSD is a self-exciting process which switches among different states, in each of which the process has distinguishable background seismicity and decay rates. Parameter estimation is developed via the expectation maximization algorithm. The model is applied to data from the Landers earthquake sequence, demonstrating that it is useful for modelling changes in the temporal patterns of seismicity. The states in the model can capture the behavior of main shocks, large aftershocks, secondary aftershocks and a period of quiescence with different background rates and decay rates. The state transitions can then explain the seismicity rate changes and help indicate if there is any seismicity shadow or relative quiescence. The second part of this thesis develops statistical methods to examine earthquake sequences possessing ancillary data, in this case groundwater level data or GPS measurements of deformation. For the former, signals from groundwater level data at Tangshan Well, China, are extracted for the period from 2002 to 2005 using a moving window method. A number of different statistical techniques are used to detect and quantify coseismic responses to P, S, Love and Rayleigh wave arrivals. The P phase arrivals appear to trigger identifiable oscillations in groundwater level, whereas the Rayleigh waves amplify the water level movement. Identifiable coseismic responses are found for approximately 40 percent of magnitude 6+ earthquakes worldwide. A threshold in the relationship between earthquake magnitude and well–epicenter distance is also found, satisfied by 97% of the identified coseismic responses, above which coseismic changes in groundwater level at Tangshan Well are most likely. A non-linear filter measuring short-term deformation rate changes is introduced to extract signals from GPS data. For two case studies of a) deep earthquakes in central North Island, New Zealand, and b) shallow earthquakes in Southern California, a hidden Markov model (HMM) is fitted to the output from the filter. Mutual information analysis indicates that the state having the largest variation of deformation rate contains precursory information that indicates an elevated probability for earthquake occurrence.Item Heartaches over housing: Correlating cardiovascular disease rates and housing damage in the aftermath of the Canterbury earthquakes(Elsevier, 7/09/2017) Phibbs S; Kenney CMItem When the earth doesn't stop shaking: How experiences over time influenced information needs, communication, and interpretation of aftershock information during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, New Zealand(Elsevier, 1/03/2019) Becker JS; Potter SH; McBride SK; Wein A; Doyle EEH; Paton D© 2018 The Authors The Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) began with the Darfield earthquake on 4 September 2010. Continual large and small aftershocks since that time have meant communities have cycled through repeated periods of impact, response and recovery. Scientific communication about aftershocks during such a prolonged sequence has faced distinct challenges. We conducted research to better understand aftershock information needs for agencies and the public, and how people interpreted and responded to such information. We found that a wide range of information was needed from basic facts about aftershocks through to more technical information, and in different formats (e.g. maps, tables, graphs, text, analogies). Information needs also evolved throughout the sequence, and differed depending on people's roles and experiences, and the phase of impact, response and recovery communities were in. Interpretation of aftershock information was influenced by a variety of factors including how understandable and relevant the information was, whether people had prior knowledge or experience of aftershocks, whether the information was personalised or contextualised, emotions and feelings, credibility and trust, and external influences. Given that such a diversity of evolving information is required, it is imperative that geoscientists strategize how to provide such information before a significant earthquake occurs.
