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    Estimating credibility of science claims : analysis of forecasting data from metascience projects : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2021) Gordon, Michael
    The veracity of scientific claims is not always certain. In fact, sufficient claims have been proven incorrect that many scientists believe that science itself is facing a “replication crisis”. Large scale replication projects provided empirical evidence that only around 50% of published social and behavioral science findings are replicable. Multiple forecasting studies showed that the outcomes of replication projects could be predicted by crowdsourced human evaluators. The research presented in this thesis builds on previous forecasting studies, deriving new findings and exploring new scope and scale. The research is centered around the DARPA SCORE (Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence) programme, a project aimed at developing measures of credibility for social and behavioral science claims. As part of my contribution to SCORE, myself, along with a international collaboration, elicited forecasts from human experts via surveys and prediction markets to predict the replicability of 3000 claims. I also present research on other forecasting studies. In chapter 2, I pool data from previous studies to analyse the performance of prediction markets and surveys with higher statistical power. I confirm that prediction markets are better at forecasting replication outcomes than surveys. This study also demonstrates the relationship between p-values of original findings and replication outcomes. These findings are used to inform the experimental and statistical design to forecast the replicability of 3000 claims as part of the SCORE programme. A full description of the design including planned statistical analyses is included in chapter 3. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, our generated forecasts could not be validated through direct replication, experiments conducted by other teams within the SCORE collaboration, thereby preventing results being presented in this thesis. The completion of these replications is now scheduled for 2022, and the pre-analysis plan presented in Chapter 3 will provide the basis for the analysis of the resulting data. In chapter 4, an analysis of ‘meta’ forecasts, or forecasts regarding field wide replication rates and year specific replication rates, is presented. We presented and published community expectations that replication rates will differ by field and will increase over time. These forecasts serve as valuable insights into the academic community’s views of the replication crisis, including those research fields for which no large-scale replication studies have been undertaken yet. Once the full results from SCORE are available, there will be additional insights from validations of the community expectations. I also analyse forecaster’s ability to predict replications and effect sizes in Chapters 5 (Creative Destruction in Science) and 6 (A creative destruction approach to replication: Implicit work and sex morality across cultures). In these projects a ‘creative destruction’ approach to replication was used, where a claim is compared not only to the null hypothesis but to alternative contradictory claims. I conclude forecasters can predict the size and direction of effects. Chapter 7 examines the use of forecasting for scientific outcomes beyond replication. In the COVID-19 preprint forecasting project I find that forecasters can predict if a preprint will be published within one year, including the quality of the publishing journal. Forecasters can also predict the number of citations preprints will receive. This thesis demonstrates that information about scientific claims with respect to replicability is dispersed within scientific community. I have helped to develop methodologies and tools to efficiently elicit and aggregate forecasts. Forecasts about scientific outcomes can be used as guides to credibility, to gauge community expectations and to efficiently allocate sparse replication resources.
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    Te Kete Tua-ātea, Māori modelling of the future and the kaitiakitanga of water : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Resource and Environmental Planning at Massey University, Manawatū, Aotearoa New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2019) Baker, Mahina-a-rangi
    This research arose from the experience of our iwi, Te Āti Awa ki Whakarongotai, struggling to control the future trajectory of the health of our water and the health of our people. We came to recognise that our political aspiration to realise our tino rangatiratanga in relation to water was strongly dependent on our knowledge capability, in particular, our capability to identify, examine and communicate the likely effects of future scenarios on our water. The aim of this thesis was to propose and operationalise a mātauranga Māori framework and futuring tools that iwi can apply in decision-making to assist them in realising the futures they wish to see for water systems. Ngā Kete o te Wānanga has been presented as a complete mātauranga Māori theoretical framework, and each kete or component has informed the generation and application of specific aspects of knowledge and the tools that are required for the kaitiakitanga of water. Te Kete Tua-uri has informed the production of a rich iwi ontology of water that provides a more in-depth understanding of what water ‘is’ from a Te Āti Awa perspective. Te Kete Aronui has informed the development and application of tools to facilitate observations across the broad iwi values of water. These include novel tools for monitoring the integrity of decision-making processes, and a survey tool for monitoring the well-being attributes of wairua and whakapapa connectivity in our rohe. The research has shown how the recognition and revitalisation of Te Kete Tua-ātea knowledge and tools as a distinct field of mātauranga Māori is particularly crucial to the practice of kaitiakitanga. This has involved developing and applying futuring tools such as quantitative models to generate knowledge about the infinite possible future scenarios for our water catchments that can be used to inform decision-making processes. The application of Ngā Kete o te Wānanga can make a significant contribution to improving the way that water is cared for in Aotearoa. The research has demonstrated the power of returning to the enduring wisdom of mātauranga Māori, and the benefits of a kaupapa/values-based, whole-of-system, future-oriented approach to water care.
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    Where memories sleep : an exploration into human-centred design and visual storytelling to persuade and educate : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for a Master in Design at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2019) O'Hara, William Jason
    Where Memories Sleep is an immersive cinedance installation designed to introduce new audiences to Antarctica and the science undertaken at Scott Base. The research explores using human-centred design methodologies to develop the communication strategy and visual narrative that inform the project’s creative direction. Tailored to appeal to millennials while remaining inclusive of all age groups, it primarily focuses on engaging and informing audiences about the existence and relevance of the science rather than expecting action toward Antarctica or climate change. Sitting at the confluence of three narrative disciplines; documentary, persuasion, and entertainment, the research project investigates the interaction and integration of these worlds when combined into a single immersive experience. Central to the project is a two-part narrative structure; a metaphoric imagined ‘legend’ that functions as a ‘Trojan Horse’ to engage the audience, and a supporting documentary making implicit the links to real science. The project narrative is inspired by the rich history of Antarctic exploration and draws on traditional and contemporary oral, visual and theatrical storytelling techniques. The storyline follows a familiar ‘hero’s journey’ structure beneath which runs a non-fiction aspect representing the current scientific activity in Antarctica. Where Memories Sleep is conceived as a long-term initiative and therefore adopts a flexible, modular approach to the narrative and scenographic elements. It is proposed to work across a variety of installation locations and media opportunities, such as a single-channel online video, to full live dance performance/installation.
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    Does methodological naturalism lead one to accept ontological naturalism? : a thesis submitted to Massey University in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Philosophy, Massey University, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2018) Weichselbaum, Johann
    Science excludes the supernatural in its explanations and theories - a principle called ‘methodological naturalism’. This strategy of eschewing supernatural causation has been criticised, in particular by some religious communities. One reason given is that this principle leads one to a total rejection of anything supernatural (ontological naturalism). In this paper I argue that methodological naturalism is a stable but also necessary position, which does not cause one to accept an atheistic worldview.
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    An exploration of science lecturers' views on quality teaching in science at university : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Education at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2019) Jordens, Janet Zoe
    Undergraduate university students learn science in ways that are different to those used in professional science laboratories and do not prepare them for their work as practising scientists. This study aimed to explore lecturers’ views on quality teaching and learning in science and what influenced their views and practice. I developed a theoretical framework of sensitising lenses based on quality as a complex system and wicked problem, to explore science lecturers’ views on quality teaching and learning in undergraduate science. This framework, together with key ideas from complexity thinking, guided all aspects of the research. The research design was a multistage mixed methods approach consisting of a dissensus Delphi study followed by a large-scale survey and semi-structured interviews. The problem definition, openness and social complexity lenses identified characteristics that science lecturers associated with quality teaching and learning in undergraduate science. Quantitative data revealed views with varying extents of consensus on these characteristics. Based on these views I proposed a transformative framework for understanding quality teaching and learning in undergraduate science in which generic principles of good teaching are embedded in ways of thinking and practising in science, social relationships are promoted, and variable cultural and sub-discipline factors are included according to the specific context. From this, quality could be viewed as a complex system (rather than a wicked problem) and conditions for its emergence proposed. The non-linearity and multiple-causality lenses identified influences affecting lecturers’ quality teaching. These showed the main driver of lecturers’ changing their teaching was reflective practice, with student feedback the main contributor to this. However, findings from quantitative data showed many characteristics associated with quality teaching were implemented less often than expected, suggesting reflective practice was underutilised. I suggest the potential gap between reflective practice and action is teacher agency. With the aid of the problem resolution lens, I propose a conceptual framework for quality teaching in undergraduate science that has the potential for the emergence of quality from a complex system, and recommend actions for lecturers, educational development and institutions to help achieve this potential.
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    Some methodological/philosophical problems in secondary school science education : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Education at Massey University
    (Massey University, 1983) Singh, Pravin
    An examination of common images of science and the scientist, and of some conceptions of 'science processes' in secondary school science, as depicted in texts, curricula and other public utterances, reveals the influence of certain traditions of philosophy/methodology. The methodological/philosophical positions associated severally with Bacon, Locke and Hume, and the Logical Positivists, are collectively designated as 'Methodological Reductionism' in this study, and are explored and found to be inadequate and/or misleading in the light of recent developments in the philosophy of science. Dissatisfaction with current school science is also found to be a consequence of adoption of narrow, 'functional' goals of science education. Difficulties also arise from: confusion of meanings of scientific terms in relation to their 'ordinary language' usage as contrasted with their specialised scientific usage; teachers' attitudes towards, and understanding of, the nature of science; and teaching methods which despite innovations, have remained essentially content- oriented, fact-laden, formal and didactic. It is argued that if science education is to regain its interest and become educationally more meaningful for students, then an alternative methodological/philosophical rationale for science and 'science processes' is desirable. It is suggested that the adoption of what is basically a Kuhnian epistemology may help to remove misconceptions about science and the scientist, and also help to surmount some of the current difficulties in the teaching of science. To facilitate and accommodate conceptual changes in science education, a teaching and learning strategy based upon Kuhn's notions of 'paradigm' and 'paradigm change' can be utilised. Because current science education is said to be overly formalistic and socially isolated, it is recommended that a multi­ disciplinary approach may not only regain for science its declining interest, but also produce future citizens who are better equipped to deal with science/technology/ society problems and issues, and who will possess the cognitive and affective attributes needed for making a positive contribution within a science- and technology­ based society.
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    Selective mechanisms for general science education : a history of the development of general science education in New Zealand, 1900-1943 : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Arts in History at Massey University
    (Massey University, 2000) Nikoloff, Lynette L
    Free education has been the right of every New Zealand citizen since 1877 when free secular education was established in all state primary schools.¹ Ian Cumming and Alan Cumming, History of State Education in New Zealand 1840-1975, Wellington: Pitman, 1978, p.103. All children had to be given free education between the ages of five and fifteen, termed 'school age'. ² ibid., p. 102. Compulsory schooling was required for all children between the ages of 7 and 13 years, this was increased to 14 from 1901. Eligible children had to attend primary school for six sessions per week (choosing either a morning or afternoon session).³ ibid., p. 143. Teachers were required to deliver a prescribed curriculum consisting of: reading, writing, arithmetic, English Grammar and composition, geography, history, elementary science and drawing, object lessons, vocal music and for girls there was the additional subjects of: sewing, needlework and domestic economy. ⁴ibid., p. 102. Object Lessons were common in the nineteenth century and were first employed by the Mayos, a Protestant clergy man and his sister. The lessons involved the children looking at some object e.g. The refining of silver ore. The teacher would lead the class through a series of statements about the object such as: the ore is melted and the silver skimmed and the teacher asks the children: 'Now what is it that separates the impure substances for the silver?' to which the children respond in unison: 'The heat of the fire.' Many of these lessons ended up relating to religious education. David Layton, Science for the People: The Origins of the School Science Curriculum in England, New York: Science History Publications, 1973, pp. 23-6. The curriculum was designed to prepare candidates for the proficiency examination, which was the entry examination into post-primary school. Students sat the proficiency examination at the end of standard VI or form 2. Failure in this examination meant students had to stay at primary school until reaching the official leaving age and most primary schools had a standard VII. Within the context of this study, the various types of post-primary schools have very precise definitions which must not be confused with the contemporary use of the term 'secondary school' which denotes universal post-primary education. 'Secondary School' describes a single sex academic school primarily delivering a curriculum prescribed by external examiners, such as the University Senate. Some secondary schools developed alternative programmes for less academic students but the main focus of the school was on preparing students for external examinations. 'Technical High School' describes a co-educational fully funded state school which had to provide technical and manual instruction, and it is interesting to note that teachers were paid less in this type of school. 'Combined High School' describes a secondary school which offered a variety of academic and practical courses and was usually co- educational. 'District High School' describes a co-educational school which was an extension of a primary school, offering a practical curriculum based on the agricultural sciences. Therefore, the term 'post- primary school' encompasses a variety of schools, all of which catered for students beyond primary level and up to the age of 18 years. [From Introduction]
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    An introduction to relativity in James Joyce's Ulysses : a thesis presented in partial fulfulment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in English at Massey University
    (Massey University, 1999) Sanson, Allan Edward
    Unavailable to Leopold Bloom in 1904, but front page news to Joyce as he scripted Ulysses, Albert Einstein's relativity theories superseded Sir Isaac Newton's theories about absolute space, absolute time, laws of motion, and the universal law of gravitation during the period 1905 - 1922. The opposition between Newtonian mechanics and Einsteinian relativity was played out in the newspapers of the time and incorporated anachronistically into Joyce's novel in his characterisation of Bloom, who is not only a metempsychotic reincarnation of the ancient Greek hero Odysseus, but also a metempsychotic anticipation of the greatest scientist of the twentieth century, Albert Einstein. Musing continually on the ultimate nature of time, space, motion, light, and gravitation. Bloom verges on the brink of an Einsteinian epiphany without ever quite achieving one.
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    Computer-based collaborative concept mapping : motivating Indian secondary students to learn science : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Education at Massey University, Manawatu, New Zealand
    (Massey University, 2016) Kaushik, Anil Kumar
    This is a study of the design, development, implementation and evaluation of a teaching and learning intervention. The overarching aim of the study was to investigate the effectiveness of the intervention ‘Computer-based Collaborative Concept Mapping’ (CCCM) on Indian secondary students’ conceptual learning and motivation towards science learning. CCCM was designed based on constructivist and cognitive theories of learning and reinforced by recent motivation theories. The study followed a Design-based research (DBR) methodology. CCCM was implemented in two selected Indian secondary grade 9 classrooms. A quasi-experimental Solomon Four-Group research design was adopted to carry out the teaching experiment and mixed methods of data collection were used to generate and collect data from 241 secondary students and the two science teachers. The intervention was designed and piloted to check the feasibility for further implementation. The actual implementation of CCCM followed the pilot testing for 10 weeks. Students studied science concepts in small groups using the computer software Inspiration. Students constructed concept maps on various topics after discussing the concepts in their groups. The achievement test ATS9 was designed and administered as a pre-post-test to examine the conceptual learning and science achievement. Students’ responses were analysed to examine their individual conceptual learning whereas group concept maps were analysed to assess group learning. The motivation questionnaire SMTSL was also administered as a pre-post-test to investigate students’ initial and final motivation to learn science. At the end of the teaching experiment, the science teachers and two groups of students were interviewed. Analyses of the quantitative data suggested a statistically significant enhancement of science achievement, conceptual learning and motivation towards science learning. The qualitative data findings revealed positive attitudes of students and teachers towards the CCCM use. Students and teachers believed that CCCM use could promote conceptual learning and motivate students to learn science. Both students and teachers preferred CCCM over on-going traditional didactic methods of teaching-learning. Some enablers and barriers identified by teachers and students in the Indian science classroom context are also explored and discussed. A framework for enhancing secondary school students’ motivation towards science learning and conceptual learning is proposed based on the findings. The findings of the study also contribute to addressing the prevailing learning crisis in Indian secondary school science classrooms by offering CCCM an active and participatory instructional strategy as envisioned by the Indian National Curriculum Framework 2005.