Modeling the feasibility of fermentation-produced protein at a globally relevant scale

Abstract

Introduction: Fermentation-produced protein (FPP) is gaining global interest as a means of protein production with potentially lower cost and environmental footprint than conventionally-produced animal-sourced proteins. However, estimates on the potential performance of FPP vary substantially, limiting assessment of its scalability and utility.

Methods: We integrate life cycle analysis data with nutritional and economic data in an interactive online tool, simulating the requirements and consequences of fermentation at a globally-relevant scale.

Results: The tool demonstrates that production of an additional 18 million tons of protein annually via fermentation (~10% of 2020 global consumption) would necessitate 10–25 million hectares of feedstock cropland expansion/reallocation, utilize up to 1% of global electricity generation, produce 159 million tons CO2 equivalents, and have a total process input cost of 53.77 billion USD, with a negligible impact on nutrient supply beyond protein.

Discussion: This tool should be used to inform the debate on the future use of fermentation in the food system.