Can circular economy advance Pacific SIDS SDG and NDC targets while maintaining self-determination? : a mixed methods approach : a thesis with publication presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics at Massey University, Albany, Auckland, New Zealand

Abstract

This study explored whether circular economy (CE) strategies could advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in Pacific Small Island Developing States (SIDS) while upholding self-determination. It contributes to the field of sustainable transition (ST) by addressing three interlinked areas of enquiry: (i) Objective 1 identified that while CE activities existed in Pacific SIDS, they remained fragmented and unsupported by cohesive policy frameworks; (ii) Objective 2 conducted the first Economy-Wide Material Flow Analysis (EW-MFA) for Tonga, which revealed zero percent circularity and structural inefficiencies; and (iii) Objective 3 introduced the Indigenous Triple Helix (I-TH) model, a culturally grounded framework rooted in Pacific governance and knowledge systems, as a context-specific pathway for ST.

The first study employed a mixed-methods approach to examine CE adoption in Samoa, the Cook Islands, and Tonga, focusing on local institutions and transition policies. Using the Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s Butterfly Diagram and institutional coevolutionary analysis, the research found that community-led initiatives such as biogas and solar projects in Samoa and the Cook Islands more effectively advanced sustainability goals. In contrast, Tonga’s top-down strategies struggled with efficiency and long-term viability.

The second employed EW-MFA for Tonga to address a measurement gap. Results revealed high dependence on imported fossil fuels and biomass products, underscoring the need for context-specific CE strategies reflective of local material and energy use patterns, illustrated by Samoa’s decentralised biomass energy initiative.

The final study undertook a conceptual analysis by developing the I-TH model, adapting the Triple Helix framework (Etzkowitz & Leydesdorff, 1998, 2000) to Pacific Indigenous contexts. While the original model emphasised collaboration among government, academia, and industry, the I-TH reframed development through the interwoven authorities of spiritual governance (God), kinship-based land stewardship (People and Land), and heritage preservation (Inheritance).

Collectively, the three studies showed that while CE could support SDG and NDC objectives, their success in Pacific SIDS depended on embedding strategies within Indigenous governance systems. By extending CE thinking through a culturally grounded lens, the thesis contributes more broadly to the global field of ST, where advancing self-determination is essential to achieving climate goals under the Paris Agreement.