Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics.

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dc.citation.issue216
dc.citation.volume21
dc.contributor.authorHorpiencharoen W
dc.contributor.authorMarshall JC
dc.contributor.authorMuylaert RL
dc.contributor.authorJohn RS
dc.contributor.authorHayman DTS
dc.coverage.spatialEngland
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-21T02:30:12Z
dc.date.available2024-08-21T02:30:12Z
dc.date.issued2024-07-03
dc.description.abstractThe wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.
dc.description.confidentialfalse
dc.edition.editionJul 2024
dc.format.pagination20240278-
dc.identifier.author-urlhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38955228
dc.identifier.citationHorpiencharoen W, Marshall JC, Muylaert RL, John RS, Hayman DTS. (2024). Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics.. J R Soc Interface. 21. 216. (pp. 20240278-).
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsif.2024.0278
dc.identifier.eissn1742-5662
dc.identifier.elements-typejournal-article
dc.identifier.issn1742-5689
dc.identifier.number20240278
dc.identifier.urihttps://mro.massey.ac.nz/handle/10179/71351
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.publisher.urihttps://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2024.0278
dc.relation.isPartOfJ R Soc Interface
dc.rights(c) 2024 The Author/s
dc.rightsCC BY 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectbovine
dc.subjectdisease transmission
dc.subjectpopulation
dc.subjectprediction
dc.subjectwildlife conservation
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectThailand
dc.subjectModels, Biological
dc.subjectPopulation Dynamics
dc.subjectCattle
dc.subjectAnimals, Wild
dc.subjectCommunicable Diseases
dc.subjectCattle Diseases
dc.subjectRuminants
dc.titleImpact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics.
dc.typeJournal article
pubs.elements-id489575
pubs.organisational-groupCollege of Health
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