Mass atrocities and military intervention : a ripeness-based approach to the decision moment : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Defence and Security Studies at Massey University, Manawatū, New Zealand

Abstract

Mass atrocities, commonly defined as genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, is a problem facing the world. The past, and unfortunately the present, is filled with humanitarian tragedies where violence against civilian populations resulted in mass atrocities. Difficult deliberations occur among external actors on the complex issue of when to intervene with military force to prevent or stop these mass atrocities. Although there is a comprehensive body of intervention literature on the what, why and how, there is a gap in understanding the timing of when to intervene. This question may be better understood when we apply ripeness theory from another discipline that has been used in conflict resolution to understand the conditions of when groups in conflict enter negotiations and begin to find a solution to resolve their conflict. This study builds on ripeness theory to understand the timing and favourable conditions of when to intervene. This research asks: What is the applicability of ripeness theory for understanding when to conduct a military intervention to prevent or stop mass atrocities? The research uses case studies with process tracing of interventions in Kosovo, East Timor, and Libya to investigate this question. The approach evolves ripeness theory from its traditional use in negotiation to its use in the different context of military intervention. This ripeness-based approach proposes new concepts that work together with established concepts in a framework that develops favouring conditions of when to intervene. This new way of applying ripeness theory yields a useful approach and promising results, but more research needs to be done.