Journal Articles
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Item Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds.(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2024-04-01) Martins PM; Anderson MJ; Sweatman WL; Punnett AJ; Marquet PChanges in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.Item A new mapping tool to visualise critical infrastructure levels of service following a major earthquake(Elsevier B.V., 2024-01) Mowll R; Anderson MJ; Logan TM; Becker JS; Wotherspoon LM; Stewart C; Johnston D; Neely DHow can emergency management teams communicate to potentially impacted communities what a major event causing infrastructure outages might mean for them, and what they can do to prepare? In this paper we describe the process of creating a webtool for end users to visualise infrastructure outages that the Wellington region of New Zealand would face following a rupture of the Wellington fault. This webtool creates insight for three key groups: critical infrastructure owners, communities, and the emergency management sector itself. Critical infrastructure entities can use the tool to understand where they might consider infrastructure upgrades to mitigate gaps of delivery following a fault rupture, and to consider their emergency response plans for delivery in an emergency (leading to their consideration of ‘planning emergency levels of service’). Communities can use the tool to understand what infrastructure outages will mean at the household level in an emergency, including the considerable distances that some community members will have to walk to access services such as food and water and prepare for prolonged outages. Finally, with a greater knowledge of the gaps in delivery and of those community members that might need assistance with food and water collection, the emergency management sector can be better prepared. The methodology for creating the webtool is described, along with the insights that the completed webtool provides for emergency planning.Item Introduction: In appreciation of K. Robert Clarke(John Wiley and Sons Australia Ltd on behalf of Ecological Society of Australia, 2021-09-01) Anderson MJ; Somerfield PJ; Warwick RMK. Robert Clarke is one of the most highly regarded and highly cited scientists in the field of ecology. Over the past 45+ years, He has inspired and empowered ecological researchers all across the globe by developing novel statistical methods, creating user-friendly PRIMER software, and presenting generous, spirited, personalised workshops in multivariate analysis for practicing scientists. We introduce this special issue in Austral Ecology by acknowledging his myriad contributions, including a brief biography of his professional career and details of his lasting positive legacy.Item Non-linear models of species' responses to environmental and spatial gradients(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2022-12) Anderson MJ; Walsh DCI; Sweatman WL; Punnett AJSpecies' responses to broad-scale environmental or spatial gradients are typically unimodal. Current models of species' responses along gradients tend to be overly simplistic (e.g., linear, quadratic or Gaussian GLMs), or are suitably flexible (e.g., splines, GAMs) but lack direct ecologically interpretable parameters. We describe a parametric framework for species-environment non-linear modelling (‘senlm’). The framework has two components: (i) a non-linear parametric mathematical function to model the mean species response along a gradient that allows asymmetry, flattening/peakedness or bimodality; and (ii) a statistical error distribution tailored for ecological data types, allowing intrinsic mean–variance relationships and zero-inflation. We demonstrate the utility of this model framework, highlighting the flexibility of a range of possible mean functions and a broad range of potential error distributions, in analyses of fish species' abundances along a depth gradient, and how they change over time and at different latitudes.Item Transmission dynamics of an antimicrobial resistant Campylobacter jejuni lineage in New Zealand’s commercial poultry network(Elsevier B.V, 2021-12) Greening SS; Zhang J; Midwinter AC; Wilkinson DA; Fayaz A; Williamson DA; Anderson MJ; Gates MC; French NPUnderstanding the relative contribution of different between-farm transmission pathways is essential in guiding recommendations for mitigating disease spread. This study investigated the association between contact pathways linking poultry farms in New Zealand and the genetic relatedness of antimicrobial resistant Campylobacter jejuni Sequence Type 6964 (ST-6964), with the aim of identifying the most likely contact pathways that contributed to its rapid spread across the industry. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on 167C. jejuni ST-6964 isolates sampled from across 30 New Zealand commercial poultry enterprises. The genetic relatedness between isolates was determined using whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST). Permutational multivariate analysis of variance and distance-based linear models were used to explore the strength of the relationship between pairwise genetic associations among the C. jejuni isolates and each of several pairwise distance matrices, indicating either the geographical distance between farms or the network distance of transportation vehicles. Overall, a significant association was found between the pairwise genetic relatedness of the C. jejuni isolates and the parent company, the road distance and the network distance of transporting feed vehicles. This result suggests that the transportation of feed within the commercial poultry industry as well as other local contacts between flocks, such as the movements of personnel, may have played a significant role in the spread of C. jejuni. However, further information on the historical contact patterns between farms is needed to fully characterise the risk of these pathways and to understand how they could be targeted to reduce the spread of C. jejuni.Item Microbiome and environment explain the absence of correlations between consumers and their diet in Bornean microsnails(Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Ecological Society of America, 2021-02) Hendriks KP; Bisschop K; Kortenbosch HH; Kavanagh JC; Larue AEA; Chee-Chean P; Bonte D; Duijm EJ; Salles JF; Pigot AL; Richter Mendoza FJ; Schilthuizen M; Anderson MJ; Speksnijder AGCL; Etienne RSClassical ecological theory posits that species partition resources such that each species occupies a unique resource niche. In general, the availability of more resources allows more species to co-occur. Thus, a strong relationship between communities of consumers and their resources is expected. However, correlations may be influenced by other layers in the food web, or by the environment. Here we show, by studying the relationship between communities of consumers (land snails) and individual diets (from seed plants), that there is in fact no direct, or at most a weak but negative, relationship. However, we found that the diversity of the individual microbiome positively correlates with both consumer community diversity and individual diet diversity in three target species. Moreover, these correlations were affected by various environmental variables, such as anthropogenic activity, habitat island size, and a possibly important nutrient source, guano runoff from nearby caves. Our results suggest that the microbiome and the environment explain the absence of correlations between diet and consumer community diversity. Hence, we advocate that microbiome inventories are routinely added to any community dietary analysis, which our study shows can be done with relatively little extra effort. Our approach presents the tools to quickly obtain an overview of the relationships between consumers and their resources. We anticipate our approach to be useful for ecologists and environmentalists studying different communities in a local food web.Item Shallow-Water Scavengers of Polar Night and Day – An Arctic Time-Lapse Photography Study(Frontiers Media S.A, 2021-05) Balazy P; Anderson MJ; Chelchowski M; Włodarska-Kowalczuk M; Kuklinski P; Berge JUntil recently, polar night constituted truly a “mare incognitum” of our times. Yet, the first records from this very little-explored period showcased a surprisingly rich and active ecosystem. This investigation aims to reveal the level of scavenger activity during both Arctic polar night and day. It compares the shallow-water scavenging fauna observed during two contrasting seasons (winter vs. summer) in a high Arctic fjord (Kongsfjorden, 79° N, Spitsbergen, Svalbard Archipelago). In each of January and July 2015, two different bait types – Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and a bird carcass (chicken meat) were deployed at a depth of 12 m. Fauna were monitored remotely using time-lapse cameras equipped with bait traps, with photographs taken every 15 min over a period of 4 days. Thirty taxa were recorded at baits, dominated by lysianassid amphipods (Onisimus sp. 88%, Anonyx sp. 2%, but only during winter), and buccinid gastropods (B. undatum 5%, B. glaciale 1%, Buccinum sp. 3%, in both seasons). In most cases, buccinids were the first animals to appear at bait. The total number of recorded taxa, mean species richness per sampling unit, total abundance and associations among taxa were higher, on average, in winter than in summer deployments, while Pielou’s evenness index showed the opposite pattern. Scavenger assemblages differed significantly between the two seasons and also in response to the two different bait types, with seasonal effects being strongest. Contrary to expectations, bait consumption rates differed very little between the two seasons, being slow in general and only slightly faster in summer (0.05 g of cod bait consumed in 1 min) compared to winter (0.04 g min–1), yielding novel insights into ecological interactions and functions in shallow marine ecosystems during Arctic polar nights.Item Functional beta diversity of New Zealand fishes: Characterising morphological turnover along depth and latitude gradients, with derivation of functional bioregions(1/09/2021) Myers EMV; Eme D; Liggins L; Harvey ES; Roberts CD; Anderson MJChanges in the functional structures of communities are rarely examined along multiple large-scale environmental gradients. Here, we describe patterns in functional beta diversity for New Zealand marine fishes versus depth and latitude, including broad-scale delineation of functional bioregions. We derived eight functional traits related to food acquisition and locomotion and calculated complementary indices of functional beta diversity for 144 species of marine ray-finned fishes occurring along large-scale depth (50–1200 m) and latitudinal gradients (29°–51°S) in the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone. We focused on a suite of morphological traits calculated directly from in situ Baited Remote Underwater Stereo-Video (stereo-BRUV) footage and museum specimens. We found that functional changes were primarily structured by depth followed by latitude, and that latitudinal functional turnover decreased with increasing depth. Functional turnover among cells increased with increasing depth distance, but this relationship plateaued for greater depth distances (>750 m). In contrast, functional turnover did not change significantly with increasing latitudinal distance at 700–1200 m depths. Shallow functional bioregions (50–100 m) were distinct at different latitudes, whereas deeper bioregions extended across broad latitudinal ranges. Fishes in shallow depths had a body shape conducive to efficient propulsion, while fishes in deeper depths were more elongated, enabling slow, energy-efficient locomotion, and had large eyes to enhance vision. Environmental filtering may be a primary driver of broad-scale patterns of functional beta diversity in the deep sea. Greater environmental homogeneity may lead to greater functional homogeneity across latitudinal gradients at deeper depths (700–1200 m). We suggest that communities living at depth may follow a ‘functional village hypothesis’, whereby similar key functional niches in fish communities may be maintained over large spatial scales.Item Beta diversity of demersal fish assemblages in the North-Eastern Pacific: interactions of latitude and depth.(2013) Anderson MJ; Tolimieri N; Millar RBKnowledge of broad-scale global patterns in beta diversity (i.e., variation or turnover in identities of species) for marine systems is in its infancy. We analysed the beta diversity of groundfish communities along the North American Pacific coast, from trawl data spanning 32.57°N to 48.52°N and 51 m to 1200 m depth. Analyses were based on both the Jaccard measure and the probabilistic Raup-Crick measure, which accounts for variation in alpha diversity. Overall, beta diversity decreased with depth, and this effect was strongest at lower latitudes. Superimposed on this trend were peaks in beta diversity at around 400-600 m and also around 1000-1200 m, which may indicate high turnover around the edges of the oxygen minimum zone. Beta diversity was also observed to decrease with latitude, but this effect was only observed in shallower waters (<200 m); latitudinal turnover began to disappear at depths >800 m. At shallower depths (<200 m), peaks in latitudinal turnover were observed at ∼43°N, 39°N, 35°N and 31°N, which corresponded well with several classically observed oceanographic boundaries. Turnover with depth was stronger than latitudinal turnover, and is likely to reflect strong environmental filtering over relatively short distances. Patterns in beta diversity, including latitude-by-depth interactions, should be integrated with other biodiversity measures in ecosystem-based management and conservation of groundfish communities.Item Marine reserves indirectly affect fine-scale habitat associations, but not overall densities, of small benthic fishes.(2016-09) Smith ANH; Anderson MJMany large, fishery-targeted predatory species have attained very high relative densities as a direct result of protection by no-take marine reserves. Indirect effects, via interactions with targeted species, may also occur for species that are not themselves targeted by fishing. In some temperate rocky reef ecosystems, indirect effects have caused profound changes in community structure, notably the restoration of predator-urchin-macroalgae trophic cascades. Yet, indirect effects on small benthic reef fishes remain poorly understood, perhaps because of behavioral associations with complex, refuge-providing habitats. Few, if any, studies have evaluated any potential effects of marine reserves on habitat associations in small benthic fishes. We surveyed densities of small benthic fishes, including some endemic species of triplefin (Tripterygiidae), along with fine-scale habitat features in kelp forests on rocky reefs in and around multiple marine reserves in northern New Zealand over 3 years. Bayesian generalized linear mixed models were used to evaluate evidence for (1) main effects of marine reserve protection, (2) associations with habitat gradients, including complexity, and (3) differences in habitat associations inside versus outside reserves. No evidence of overall main effects of marine reserves on species richness or densities of fishes was found. Both richness and densities showed strong associations with gradients in habitat features, particularly habitat complexity. In addition, some species exhibited reserve-by-habitat interactions, having different associations with habitat gradients inside versus outside marine reserves. Two species (Ruanoho whero and Forsterygion flavonigrum) showed stronger positive associations with habitat complexity inside reserves. These results are consistent with the presence of a behavioral risk effect, whereby prey fishes are more strongly attracted to habitats that provide refuge from predation in areas where predators are more abundant. This work highlights the importance of habitat structure and the potential for fishing to affect behavioral interactions and the interspecific dynamic attributes of community structure beyond simple predator-prey consumption and archetypal trophic cascades.